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mixed_biscuits

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Holy shit! Alright mixed_biscuits, what's happening with you? Very long time no see.

Likewise!

(I've been lurking the past n years)

I also had the virus a couple of months ago (cough, chills, fatigue, loss of smell)...still have a dry cough and 40% smell
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
I also had the virus a couple of months ago (cough, chills, fatigue, loss of smell)...still have a dry cough and 40% smell

Damn, that's harsh. You'll just have to smell 2.5 times as much as usual to make up for it.

Good to have you back, anyway.

Now I wonder where firefinga's got to?
 

droid

Well-known member
I don't think it's that at all... to me when you could see the number of cases and deaths that were happening in the eastern US and the delay in doing anything at all and then the lack of any travel restrictions within the states, no federal lockdown, huge congregations in churches and so on - all pretty much directly caused (or at least not prevented) by Trump I thought it was completely insane. So now, when they are just approaching 60k deaths a better question to me is how is it that despite the lack of (and wrong-headed) federal leadership it hasn't been worse? When in Italy they were taking it so much more seriously and relatively being hit harder. No moral fable there, it's just we know how it's spread and we know how dangerous it is and we know steps haven't been taken to stop it - it's very straight forward cause and effect.
Similar in UK though not quite as batshit insane as the US as far as I could tell, there is at least a mechanism for a national response which swung into action eventually.
Japan, I'm not sure, I haven't really being following it but I think that they are possibly in the early stages and so we may not be comparing like with like.

Yup. Generally speaking, the countries that acted most quickly and decisively had the least worst outcomes.

Italy was the first hit country in Europe and so had the slowest response as they were unprepared and had to instigate a bunch of stuff for the first time outside of Asia. Spain and France were next in line, they got a little bit of a head start, but acted too late to prevent some fairly major impacts. Germany and many countries in Eastern Europe took advantage of the warning and acted fairly decisively and minimised impacts. Of the Nordics, as we have seen, Sweden is by far the worst of in per capita deaths due to lack of rigorous non clinical interventions. New Zealand, which had the most warning did pretty much everything right and have had the best outcomes.

Then we come to the UK. Plenty of warning, enough time to prepare, but they fucked it completely, kept everything open far too long, didn't even ban mass gatherings and pursued herd immunity - hence, probably the worst per capita death rates in the world.

The US - maybe worse, They had even longer to prepare but suffer from even more corrosive political problems, hence the awful human toll and the ongoing crisis that looks set to worsen.

There are all kinds of variables and a thousand ways to fuck this up (like Japan is doing right now), but as Ive said a few times already on this thread, the presence of a psychopathic right wing government made up of incompetent grifters is a pretty good indicator that youre gonna have a very bad response to a pandemic. I wouldve thought that was pretty self evident.
 
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IdleRich

IdleRich
cos they're gonna make this one real quick whereas usually it takes years of testing and trials.
Well I assume that it will still have to meet certain basic standards. I'll doubt (just cos of the way things pan out) that I'll be at the front of the queue to get it, but when I do have the chance I'll take it I guess. I mean of course they can't know the effects in ten years but that's the case with any vaccine for a some x number of years isn't it?
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Italy was the first hit country in Europe and so had the slowest response as they were unprepared and had to instigate a bunch of stuff for the first time outside of Asia. Spain and France were next in line, they got a little bit of a head start, but acted too late to prevent some fairly major impacts. Germany and many countries in Eastern Europe took advantage of the warning and acted fairly decisively and minimised impacts. Of the Nordics, as we have seen, Sweden is by far the worst of in per capita deaths due to lack of rigorous non clinical interventions. New Zealand, which had the most warning did pretty much everything right and have had the best outcomes.
Then we come to the UK. Plenty of warning, enough time to prepare, but they fucked it completely, kept everything open far too long, didn't even ban mass gatherings and pursued herd immunity - hence, probably the worst per capita death rates in the world.
The US - maybe worse, They had even longer to prepare but suffer from even more corrosive political problems, hence the awful human toll and the ongoing crisis that looks set to worsen.
There are all kinds of variables and a thousand ways to fuck this up (like Japan is doing right now), but as Ive said a few times already on this thread, the presence of a psychopathic right wing government made up of incompetent grifters is a pretty good indicator that youre gonna have a very bad response to a pandemic. I wouldve thought that was pretty self evident.
Yeah, this is it. It's weird to me that in February (approx) we saw Italy been absolutely ravaged by the disease, there were countless articles talking about the disaster in Italy, the mess that Italy had made of it and so on... then it arrived in UK a month or so later, still no action here... then we followed the exact trajectory of Italy.

Now Johnson's people are saying "Oh, but it's not quite as bad as in Italy so UK haven't really fucked up" - my response would be

a) You told us a few weeks back that Italy was utterly incompetent and terrible so that's setting the bar pretty fucking low
b) We had weeks of extra time to prepare and we wasted them pretending it wouldn't affect us and wanking over fucking Brexit
c) It's almost as bad (if you ignore the deaths not in hospital) and at the rate things are going it may well end up being worse anyway

And a similar response could be made if they picked France. Spain, I honestly don't know, I guess they fucked up too. The main point is that the best defence that people can offer of Johnson and co's totally useless response is that a handful of other countries are even worse... UK only had the fifth worse response in the whole world. Great.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Why should Japan be getting away with it? Or all sorts of other countries? I'm not totally convinced that Johnson and Trump are the only reasons for the high death rates here and in the US. That seems to conviently moral a fable.

Also don't forget that Trump has spent three years defunding and attacking the scientific, medical and environmental establishment and, where top jobs have been retained, filling them with cringing yes-men. There used to be an infectious disease expert, employed by the American government and embedded in the Chinese state medical department, whose job was precisely to monitor possible emergent epidemics. But Trump defunded the position last summer. So when he says "Literally nobody could have predicted this"...
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
I dunno what to think but....

Portugal to end state of emergency. The country’s president announces that its state of emergency will end at the weekend. Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa says the third such 15-day period will end at midnight on Saturday and “we hope it will not be necessary to use it again in the future”.
 

droid

Well-known member
I hope Im wrong but I think an awful lot of powerful people haven't really thought this through.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Well... I meant to mention this when it was announced hours ago but I totally forgot cos there was no-one mentioning it here, certainly no outbreak of euphoria as you might expect if we all knew that the virus was beaten and everything would be back to normal on Sunday. OK part of that can be put down to the fact that there is gonna be a staged release and also people are going to have to pick up their businesses and see if they are still viable and work just as long but with half the people and half the profits... but I also think there must be some trepidation about whether it's right, whether it's too soon, whether more people are gonna get ill and die as a result and whether it's just gonna take us back to square one and another lock down in a few weeks. Worrying times certainly. Also some people might of course be thinking that they don't want to go back to work with the virus still present but will basically have to now.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
ONS released their weekly bulletin yesterday and - yeah, I know, it's morbid as hell - the total excess deaths above the average for the time of year are 2.3 times the official covid-19 deaths. I would guess the 2, and maybe a bit more, is due to deaths in care homes, private homes and hospices, and the .3, or the maybe a bit less, due to a generally increased background mortality.

Although as I said, the death rate here does seem to be falling off, so it looks like we're over the worst of it as long as the government doesn't do anything stupid like lift the lockdown prematurely.

Small ray of light where I am is that my girlfriend's colleague in the medical school at Exeter uni says there haven't been any new hospital admissions for covid-19 for a while, so it looks like the virus has abated in my little corner of the country.
 
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