Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)

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version

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Apparently these are quotes from Trump's afternoon address,

"We will defeat the virus... and... we're going to have a big celebration... all together."

“We’ll hold the death down to a level that is… much better than the other way… had we not done a good job.”

“Someday soon hopefully it will end”

“I think that what we do… I’ve spoken actually with my son… how bad is this? It’s bad. But we’re going for a best case.”

“I wouldn’t say the restaurant business is booming.”

“We’re ordering gloves, masks…I think, Mike, we have a lot?”

“We have a problem that nobody ever thought about… 1917…1918. This is a bad one. A very bad one. It’s so contagious. Record setting contagion.”

“Once this virus is gone I think you’re gonna have a stock market like you’ve never seen before”

Reporter: “On a scale of 1-10 how would you rate your response to this crisis?” Trump: “I’d rate it a 10.’

“The market will take care of itself.”

:crylarf:
 
droid

droid

Well-known member
That's roughly the same as total US deaths from every war since the American revolution.
 
B

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
Damn.

And the lies are so blatant and shameless - everyone knew there would be hundreds of thousands of deaths from the mitigation strategy, because the government itself said so on Thursday ffs. "Refinement of estimates" which showed that the NHS would be overwhelmed 8-fold....who could have possibly foreseen such a close result? Bloody glad we had someone to refine those estimates.
 
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kumar

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Whether or not the deaths could be prevented surely the crux of this is that to do so would require an 18 month lockdown.
 
droid

droid

Well-known member
If I understand it correctly that's based on taking late action. China had about 3000 deaths and they are emerging from containment now. I guess we'll see how they do.
 
padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
droid said:
The imperial college report estimates 1.2 million deaths in the US. Unspeakable.
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that's based on a strategy of mitigation, rather than suppression

I think we're going to de facto wind up in the latter very soon, as we're headed that way now
 
IdleRich

IdleRich

IdleRich
The reporting on this is quite hard to follow I find.
I'm getting the following; basically the UK government was using a model and inserted some variables which someone at Imperial realised had been shown to be too low and that inserting the correct values for those variables meant the UK strategy would lead to a quarter-million deaths. The UK government accepted their error and are changing their strategy, hence today's announcements. Is that correct?
Also putting the numbers into the model for the US predicts over a million deaths. Is that with the present strategy or have they changed tack too?
 
droid

droid

Well-known member
I think the complicating factor is the period spent in mitigation or (in the case of the US) outright denial and cover up, which either extends the suppression period or results in higher mortality - or both.
 
padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
IdleRich said:
Is that with the present strategy or have they changed tack too?
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it's not super clear from the report?

it seems like they use "mitigation" and "suppression" to refer to basically the same thing, but with suppression being more severe social distancing etc

or they define them differently in epidemiological terms but in practice that's what it seems like to me

basically the U.S./UK to switch to whatever China, South Korea, etc have been doing

they come to the number of 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. for an unmitigated epidemic, 1.1m mitigated, suppressed they don't give a number

the corresponding UK numbers being 510000, 25000, and again ungiven
 
B

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
IdleRich said:
The reporting on this is quite hard to follow I find.
I'm getting the following; basically the UK government was using a model and inserted some variables which someone at Imperial realised had been shown to be too low and that inserting the correct values for those variables meant the UK strategy would lead to a quarter-million deaths. The UK government accepted their error and are changing their strategy, hence today's announcements. Is that correct?
Click to expand...

Definitely not the way I take it. Last Thursday they already knew there would be that many deaths from what they were suggesting (indeed that ghoulish CMO said it might be 500,000), and were happy to push ahead with herd immunity strategy as govt policy. Then over the weekend there was massive pushback at this insanity, and Hancock tried to row back, saying that herd immunity wasn't the strategy but just a 'scientific concept'. Now, miraculously, they've decided to do roughly what other European countries are doing, with 1/10 the expected death toll. And hopefully less.

This is nothing to do with Imperial - this is just a cover to say that they are 'following science' again - or an error, and everything to do with the fact they've realised they can't get away with what they originally intended. Or lost their nerve, I dunno.

They're trying to cover for the fact that they have done a massive 180 degree turn. Not to say that they won't try to revert to a madder strategy at some later stage, tho
 
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padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
droid said:
I think the complicating factor is the period spent in mitigation or (in the case of the US) outright denial and cover up, which either extends the suppression period or results in higher mortality - or both.
Click to expand...
sure

I don't doubt that they have a slew of very smart and highly trained people doing their best to model based on the data they do have

but I don't think they or anyone else knows what those variables are
 
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