UK EU Referendum Thoughts

[craner]

Also, the confusion in the mind of many between EU migration and Rest of the World immigration is terrifying me. They are completely different things, and I sense that people will vote as if they are the same.

 

[luka]

What does unnerve me is that gut sense of excitement about voting leave that even I can feel sometimes: the sweeping arguments about legal untangling and the democracy deficit have a basic persuasive pull, and they are serious arguments. I found the Dominic Raab book 'The Assault on Liberty' to be the most persuasive case on these matters. But there are even bigger arguments to consider than even his: a geopolitical abyss, an economic and political chaos that lies ahead if we pull the plug on European integration. It's not just about cheap flights or a hypothetical expansion to the far end of Anatolia.

Used 'even' twice in the same sentence.

 

[luka]

Counsel use of edit function.

 

[craner]

Thanks m8.

 

[sadmanbarty]

Also, the confusion in the mind of many between EU migration and Rest of the World immigration is terrifying me. They are completely different things, and I sense that people will vote as if they are the same.

Very true, fiscally EU immigrants are net contributors, whereas non-EU immigrants are net recipients (if I remember correctly). Remain should try to emphasise this distinction.

 

[sadmanbarty]

What does unnerve me is that gut sense of excitement about voting leave that even I can feel sometimes: the sweeping arguments about legal untangling and the democracy deficit have a basic persuasive pull, and they are serious arguments. I found the Dominic Raab book 'The Assault on Liberty' to be the most persuasive case on these matters. But there are even bigger arguments to consider than even his: a geopolitical abyss, an economic and political chaos that lies ahead if we pull the plug on European integration. It's not just about cheap flights or a hypothetical expansion to the far end of Anatolia.

I'm still undecided. It would take a lot for leave to change my mind on the economics, immigration or the geopolitical situation, so the sovereignty argument is the only thing really keeping me a floating voter. I haven't done my homework on sovereignty yet, but I'll start Raab if you're recommending it.

 

[craner]

I am. It's quite short, won't take you long.

Remain are really on the back foot in this ITV debate.

Edit: also, the whole book isn't about the EU, but the parts that are, are powerful.

 

[craner]

Gisela Stuart might just have taken us out of the EU. And I always admired her. Painful.

The Remain side just got walloped, disturbingly.

 

[sadmanbarty]

Here’s an article basically suggesting that economists have been so consistently wrong in the past that their views on Brexit should be taken with a pinch of salt. (I’ve posted links earlier in the thread, showing that economists largely are in the remain camp).

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/201...entury-of-failure-behind-them-no-wonder-they/

Here’s Simon Wren Lewis’s response.

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/...&utm_campaign=Feed:+MainlyMacro+(mainly+macro)

A couple more from Wren Lewis defending economists reputations:

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk/2016/06/the-politicisation-of-truth.html

https://mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk /2016/06/for-economists-project-fear-is-brexit.html

Paul Johnson of the IFS doing the same:

http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/c...s-but-we-are-right-about-brexit-a3267601.html

http://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/8299

And the Economist too:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2016/05/record

 

[craner]

We're going Out. And it's because of immigration.

 

[Slothrop]

Is it overly conspiracy-minded to wonder whether the inevitable post-brexit recession leading to an austerity government led by Boris and the Goldfish Faced Cunt having an excuse to finally and terminally go for the jugular of the welfare state is actually one of the things attracting senior Tories to the "out" side? Or is it just the fact that they'll be able to slash and burn workers rights and environmental regulation while telling us how great it is that we're no longer being held back by the dead hand of Brussels?

 

[droid]

Strong UUP opposition to Brexit - conceivable that NI might eventually follow Scotland out of the UK if Craner's doom-mongering is correct.

 

[droid]

Schauble talking tough as well... easy to assume its just posturing, except Germany has a habit of vicious capriciousness when it comes to misbehaving states.

 

[Woebot]

Strong DUP opposition to Brexit - conceivable that NI might eventually follow Scotland out of the UK if Craner's doom-mongering is correct.

well, we'll know who to blame won't we :slanted:

 

[Mr. Tea]

Is it overly conspiracy-minded to wonder whether the inevitable post-brexit recession leading to an austerity government led by Boris and the Goldfish Faced Cunt having an excuse to finally and terminally go for the jugular of the welfare state is actually one of the things attracting senior Tories to the "out" side? Or is it just the fact that they'll be able to slash and burn workers rights and environmental regulation while telling us how great it is that we're no longer being held back by the dead hand of Brussels?

Doesn't have to be either/or...

 

[sadmanbarty]

Alan Johnson on Today. Remain seem to be adopting Leave's nativist paradigm, which is probably for the best in the short term.

"The argument we’re making is, look, there’s three types of immigration: there’s immigration from outside the EU, there’s illegal immigration, and there’s free movement. Of those, free movement gives us the benefit of the single market.

Our argument is remaining part of the single market helps us to control the other two forms of immigration. If we leave, the situation is going to be worse. We won’t be protected by the Dublin Accord. If anyone believes that our UK border in Calais is going to survive us leaving the EU then once again they’re in the realms of fantasy. Of course it won’t, that will make the issue much worse."

He said anyone worried about Turkey joining the EU should vote to stay in, because the UK would have a veto on Turkish accession.

 

[vimothy]

Hitchens on the referendum:

I think we are about to have the most serious constitutional crisis since the Abdication of King Edward VIII. I suppose we had better try to enjoy it.

If – as I think we will – we vote to leave the EU on June 23, a democratically elected Parliament, which wants to stay, will confront a force as great as itself – a national vote, equally democratic, which wants to quit. Are we about to find out what actually happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object?

I am genuinely unsure how this will work out. I hope it will only destroy our two dead political parties, stiffened corpses that have long propped each other up with the aid of BBC endorsement and ill-gotten money.

...

Everything I hear now suggests that the votes for Leave are piling up, while the Remain cause is faltering and floundering. The betrayed supporters of both major parties now feel free to take revenge on their smug and arrogant leaders.

It has been a mystery to me that these voters stayed loyal to organisations that repeatedly spat on them from a great height. Labour doesn’t love the poor. It loves the London elite. The Tories don’t love the country. They love only money. The referendum, in which the parties are split and uncertain, has freed us all from silly tribal loyalties and allowed us to vote instead according to reason. We can all vote against the heedless, arrogant snobs who inflicted mass immigration on the poor (while making sure they lived far from its consequences themselves). And nobody can call us ‘racists’ for doing so. That’s not to say that the voters are ignoring the actual issue of EU membership as a whole. As I have known for decades, this country has gained nothing from belonging to the European Union, and lost a great deal.

...

As for the clueless drivel about independence campaigners being hostile to foreigners or narrow-minded, this is mere ignorant snobbery...

Do these people even know what they are saying when they call us ‘Little Englanders’?

England has never been more little than it is now, a subject province of someone else’s empire.

I have to say that this isn’t the way out I would have chosen, and that I hate referendums because I love our ancient Parliament. And, as I loathe anarchy and chaos, I fear the crisis that I think is coming.

I hope we produce people capable of handling it. I wouldn’t have started from here. But despite all this, it is still rather thrilling to see the British people stirring at last after a long, long sleep.

 

[droid]

Hitchens is a repulsive, odious toad. Not surprised to see him defending immigration dog whistles.

 

[sadmanbarty]

"as I have known for decades, this country has gained nothing from belonging to the European Union"

It's statements like this that make it hard to take Leave seriously.

 

[john eden]

Wavering between abstaining and voting out now.

Stay tuned for more revelations!