Yeah, I have my suspicions about that YouGov poll.
UK EU Referendum Aftermath
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Yeah, I have my suspicions about that YouGov poll.
baboon2004
Darned cockwombles.
I have my suspicions about all the polls! But point remains, there is not (yet) anything close to a clear indication that Labour would win a GE.
Not to say that they will definitely win but Labour are never going to poll 10+ simply due to how the media operates and the state & media propaganda assault against Corbyn. The boost can only come during the campaign when there is relatively neutral and equal coverage.
And personally I think a 2nd Ref would swing marginally to remain - 52/53% but its much less certain given the difficulties of the campaign itself. I imagine turnout would be down significantly, all the dark money will flood back in and the remain campaign would be shouty and incoherent. Bob Geldof will rent a zeppelin.
baboon2004
Darned cockwombles.
Also says below: "Labour don't want to get in now. Why would they want to manage this disaster? Their splits could be nearly as bad."
So this guy is recommending avoiding a GE...
baboon2004
Darned cockwombles.
Depends what the choices on the ballot paper are/mean to people by then; if by the time of a 2nd ref 'Leave' is widely interpreted as leave without a deal (surely it would only take a few more pointless negotiations to give this impression, if most people don't have it already?), then I think the Remain campaign would be much stronger, with a coherence it never had in 2016, when it was blithely assumed that the result was a foregone conclusion. I can't see how a three or four option poll would work, other than to split the Leave vote.
Turnout might be down, but only among Leave voters dismayed with the process. Surely everyone with any interest at all in Remaining would be at the polling stations at 7am, now they understand what the alternative is and are face-to-face with the void.
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baboon2004
Darned cockwombles.
Agree with the first bit, but I think the difference from 2017 is that there is no longer the idealistic support for Corbyn that carried him to that result (which was still losing). If voting for Corbyn is still voting for Brexit, then a lot of Labour voters may simply not want to do this - it might be logical to pursue the least bad outcome, but we've seen in the US that voting doesn't follow logical patterns and the centre/left is more than capable of spurning pragmatism at critical moments and splitting itself out of some notion of ideological purity. Also, with so many pro-Remain Labour MPs, keeping everyone 'on message', even during a GE, may be impossible at this point.
baboon2004
Darned cockwombles.
IdleRich
IdleRich
I don't see the point of debating the merits of a GE when Labour can't force one and Tories don't want one and so it won't be called.
Also, given the choice between Tory rule and NoBrexit or Brexit and Labour getting in I'd prefer the former. Brexit is the most important issue right now (it will be permanent, governments change) it will hurt people forever and it can only be stopped now. If Corbyn won't oppose it then I don't want him as leader anyway.
Right now the situation is that the Brexit deadline is coming up fast and the Tories are clinging on to power but have no ideas and no majority. Labour need to recognise this and use whatever influence they have to, first, prevent No-deal, then do everything possible to mitigate the Brexit we do get - all with the ultimate aim of stopping Brexit altogether.
To me it's a huge mistake to think about Brexit in terms of what it might mean for Labour's chances - Brexit is THE thing itself.
Also, given the choice between Tory rule and NoBrexit or Brexit and Labour getting in I'd prefer the former. Brexit is the most important issue right now (it will be permanent, governments change) it will hurt people forever and it can only be stopped now. If Corbyn won't oppose it then I don't want him as leader anyway.
Right now the situation is that the Brexit deadline is coming up fast and the Tories are clinging on to power but have no ideas and no majority. Labour need to recognise this and use whatever influence they have to, first, prevent No-deal, then do everything possible to mitigate the Brexit we do get - all with the ultimate aim of stopping Brexit altogether.
To me it's a huge mistake to think about Brexit in terms of what it might mean for Labour's chances - Brexit is THE thing itself.
IdleRich
IdleRich
Well that's where we differ. Maybe cos I live in Europe, I dunno.
IdleRich
IdleRich
But how can he get in? There's no GE so that can't happen. I think he should realise that and concentrate on what he can do.
See above. He cant get in right now, but the Tories will crack one way or another. Either May will compromise on customs union and DUP/Brexiteers will bring her down or she won't compromise and Tory remainers will bring her down as the UK nears the precipice.
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