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craner

Beast of Burden
lol. Excuse me. You made a passive aggressive attack on me for no apparent reason after I posted a tweet without comment. I gave you a reasonable answer which you then haughtily dismissed, again for no apparent reason, but (unlike you) Im the dick?

Wtf, are you nuts?
 

droid

Well-known member
Er... are you?

What exactly is this supposed to be except pure snark?

Yes, I know you are convinced that 41,000 people have died, I was just asking if anybody had any comment on how accurate the number is or how useful the method used to reach it is. Unlike you, I'm not an experienced statistician, so it's hard to tell.

Provoked apparently because I posted a link to the article which provides more info on the study. Apologies for not giving you the exact answer you wanted.
 

craner

Beast of Burden
Well, why didn't you? I asked if anyone had a comment on the methodology used, and you were like, "read it yourself." And you did it in a dickish manner. I don't know, maybe you can't help it. If that's the case, sorry.
 

droid

Well-known member
Well, why didn't you? I asked if anyone had a comment on the methodology used, and you were like, "read it yourself." And you did it in a dickish manner. I don't know, maybe you can't help it. If that's the case, sorry.

Well no, I had a very busy day with about 2 seconds to spare to reply and I hadn't seen the article since the tweet the night before so Id just noticed it was free, and I thought it might be useful. That was it. The dickishness was in your mind.
 

constant escape

winter withered, warm
@sufi, should you still be interested

Scientists: The Coronavirus Has Already Mutated into 30+ Strains

One strain, for example, appeared to generate 270 times the viral load — meaning the infected person produces 270 times as much of the virus— than the least potent strain.

That makes it far harder to fight off infections and facilitates spread, hypothetically explaining why some cases of COVID-19 are significantly worse than others.

“Sars-CoV-2 has acquired mutations capable of substantially changing its pathogenicity,” Li Lanjuan, one of China’s most prolific epidemiologists and a researcher at Zhejiang University, wrote in the study, which was shared online [https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20060160v1] in the preprint server MedRxiv on Sunday but hasn’t yet been vetted by the peer-review process or published in an academic journal.
 
Had to return to this one sorry, it was playing on my head as I can't be arsed getting sick again really. Prefer to think of my post-covid state as one of antibody freedom for a bit.

The "EVERYONE GETS RE-INFECTED" (no dig intended) on page 174-


This links to a guardian (alleged bastion of press standards if you listen to them drone on) article that doesn't quote it's source. Eventually if you search for the origin, it links to a Reuters article with no statistics or evidence to clearly back it up. Just anecdotal evidence from doctors from one region. Not denying the veracity of those statements- what the fuck do I know- but if you're just reading the guardian in this situation, it's judiciously quoted and presented as gospel. This may be 23 patients out of 30k+ plus, but droid's perspective is "they will lock the infected away".

But really what's the basis for this. A handful of cases that may indicate false negatives because people have been really sick and it's just lurking somewhere in a recess of the body regrouping? They're referencing a very small minority of people here, and although I appreciate that the Chinese situation is clouded in mystery a bit, where's the evidence for this in a reliable sense. Zero documentation, zero peer review, just a few quotes. Don't doubt the sources are valid but where's the scientific basis for any of it.

It applies to both sites of the spectrum of course- over the last month Trump's malaria drug was a cure, vitamin c definitely sorts it, nictotine patches now. No basis for any of it bar a couple of theories. These articles are everywhere.

It's odd that in such uncertain times- literally no-one knows anything here- there's such a rush in the press to present everything as fact. I guess speculative reporting is difficult but there is no other scientific field where people would be jumping in with such willingness to report on un-reviewed material and then it's circulated at such a rapid pace.

That thing about the multitude of strains is interesting too- "hasn’t yet been vetted by the peer-review process or published in an academic journal"- reported anyway. Fuck it, who cares.

It's almost like disinformation in a way.
 
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droid

Well-known member
Well thats always going to be what happens in an evolving situation like this. There will be reports of varying veracity, and even if something does turn out to be correct then we cant know how much impact an effect might have. It could be localised, it might depend on a particular strain... That said, I noticed the lack of sources in the Guardian and did a search as well, and TBF the reuters article looks like a reasonable bit of reporting and there have been several stories over time pointing to issues around persistent infection or reinfection. There was seemingly good data that smoking was a significant co morbidity, now apparently thats been found not to be the case. The same goes for mutations. 8 strains confirmed in March, Iceland claimed to have found 40 strains in early April, and now 30 strains in China. The general trend seems to be moving away from the idea that this is a slowly mutating virus.

Everything is speculative to an extent and everyone is capable of coming to a judgement as to the most likely outcomes. All you can do is look at the information, assess its reliability and see how it fits with other reporting. There is a difference between information reported in good faith and deliberate misinformation put out for political gain.

But my perspective isn't that they'll lock everyone who is infected away, in fact I fervently hope that all who recover end up with proper antibodies and some level of immunity because that's a far better outcome for everyone, but the ambiguity around antibodies means it is something that could happen, which is what I actually said - that its a possibility. There have been cases where recovered Ebola patients were found to be hosting the virus months afterwards. For now at least, I would assume that people who have recovered probably do have some level of immunity, but it's impossible to say for certain.

How are you feeling btw? A friend of mine got it before you and is still not back to normal.
 
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IdleRich

IdleRich
I definitely wouldn't go so far as to say "There is re-infection" but I think it's valid to say "We don't know if there is immunity for those who have had it" - big difference between those two statements.
How are you Slackk? I've heard of people being ill for ages as well.
 
I got in there pretty early but im sound now thanks. The chest stuff lasted forever though, that was scary. Such a grotty virus though

The lad from NY says random tests showed 20% of samples from the street showed antibodies in their system today.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
I think years of reporting on things of (relatively) little consequence has hampered the ability of the press to deal with something like this. A lot of reporting in recent times has been speculative - "Will this happen? Could this happen?". Now that something has happened they're treating it the same way, as though it's just another case of how you spin or interpret it rather than there being any truth to the situation, and it's causing problems. It's a world away from "the prime minister said this, but someone else said this" and that being the end of it.

I believe someone else.
 
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