Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)

[droid]

I'll believe it when I see it, tho I grant the possibility of course

different I believe, "very different" I'm not sure about, tho it depends what one means by very different

fwiw I met with my financial advisor on Thursday - at the consumer side of a large investment bank -and they're (comparatively) nonplussed by everything

do I believe in the infallibility of their quants, traders, other decision makers? of course not. especially after 2008.

but still, what everyone can agree on - it's not the apocalypse. it's not the Black Death.

I don't want to sound callous, but in "the scheme of things" - as far as radical restructuring of society - it won't kill THAT many people

(barring a mutation to a strain with greater lethality; tho of course the opposite may happen as well)

the question is, will the social and economic disruption be enough to convince enough people that some kind of radical restructuring is needed?

or - more likely - will it force some level of deglobalization, disentangling of the connected world, as it exposes the fragility of global economic networks?

things will be different, but I think it's much too soon to say how different, or in what ways

The last line is true - but look at what's happening in Europe. Mortgage and bill freezes. Universal sick pay. This will be followed almost certainly by a relaxation of EU financial regulations, possible direct payments to citizens. Rent amnesty, increased welfare, massive investment in health services, the commandeering of private interests, hotels, private health facilities Then there's the collapse of the stock market, airlines, oil companies. I wouldn't be surprised if we see temporary nationalisation of some banks, food production and various infrastructure.

The outcome, is of course uncertain, but I dont seen anyway that this wont result in a significant reassessment of a whole slew of political, social and economic assumptions.

 

[droid]

if you don't understand why the President of the United States dying in office of coronavirus wouldn't massively increase the chaos, I don't know what to say

Im not saying it would be good, but at what level? In terms of managing the virus itself he has been a massive impediment to effective action. There were reports that the delay in testing was partly due to his pharmaceutical interests. All effective action is being taken despite Trump and at state level. Its highly plausible that the response would improve if he was gone.

Do you think that his death would result in widespread social unrest?

 

[droid]

Rumours here is that full lockdown coming in the next few days. Army and Gardai on the streets. Airports shut.

 

[Simon silverdollarcircle]

I spoke to 7 or 8 people on a Skype call today about the mutual aid stuff and they were all lovely. None of us knew each other but we all wanted to do our bit to look after people.

That's my experience too. People doing good things at a grassroots level and filling the gaps left by the government. It's inspiring but also saddening.

 

[Simon silverdollarcircle]

Also struck by how differently people are reacting to this. We're pretty much in full social distancing now, only going out for essentials and/or to drop supplies off to people in isolation. But when i went down the road earlier the pubs and restaurants were pretty full, big club nights are still happening etc.

 

[version]

The coronavirus epidemic in the UK will last until next spring and could lead to 7.9 million people being hospitalised, a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials reveals.

The document, seen by the Guardian, is the first time health chiefs tackling the virus have admitted that they expect it to circulate for another 12 months and lead to huge extra strain on an already overstretched NHS.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...il-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

 

[baboon2004]

Also struck by how differently people are reacting to this. We're pretty much in full social distancing now, only going out for essentials and/or to drop supplies off to people in isolation. But when i went down the road earlier the pubs and restaurants were pretty full, big club nights are still happening etc.

100 times this, hence my query that Sufi answered brilliantly yesterday. It's quite something how much pure denial and disregard for others is being unleashed. It's like if you can't see the tidal wave it doesn't exist.

There are a million things to read, but I really found this clear, and its conclusion simple but precise and correct. https://www.theguardian.com/comment...st-britain-herd-immunity-coronavirus-covid-19

"Isolation for over-70s within weeks", is The Day Today territory. In a few weeks that hurricane, that tsunami will already have hit.
On a personal note, my mother lives alone, and this enforced isolation is going to be a mental health nightmare for people like her, who presumably number in the hundreds of thousands/millions
Jesus, 9 million people are over 70 in the UK!

 

[IdleRich]

There are certainly loads of people saying we "only" have x many dead or y infected which is much lower than Italy so we're doing better... as though the situation right now is somehow the whole story, ignoring the fucking massive iceberg which is out of view but which readings strongly suggest is there.

 

[baboon2004]

It's not like British-run things to ignore a massive fucking iceberg

 

[IdleRich]

I was thinking of US too in fact.

 

[sufi]

:crylarf:

 

[baboon2004]

I was thinking of US too in fact.

oh I know, couldn't resist a cheap joke tho

 

[baboon2004]

Rumours here is that full lockdown coming in the next few days. Army and Gardai on the streets. Airports shut.

Surely it has to be. European countries just don't have the infrastructure or the planning to combat this in the way South Korea seems to be. They're the gold standard, but unattainable in this continent. Are the Gardai just there to arrest people driven mad by illness, like the British police?

 

[droid]

lol, Its all hearsay atm, but the suggestion is they'll be outside shops, hospitals, maintaining curfews etc. Civil defence, army and fire brigade mobilised as well.

 

[version]

What happens if too many of them contract the virus to enforce the curfew?

 

[baboon2004]

Arrest themselves

 

[version]

I worry what's going to be pushed through whilst governments are subject to even less scrutiny than usual, elections are suspended and so on.

 

[baboon2004]

Yeah, that's the massive downside to lockdown - it creates a precedent for all kinds of crazy stuff, and in the immediate, further disproportionate force/arrest used against minorities and vulnerable groups etc

Britain could easily be a competitive autocracy like Hungary before the next GE, if not much sooner.

Presumably lost in all this are even more shouts for Scottish independence to escape this craziness (perhaps)

 

[constant escape]

@IdleRich - I think it was you who asked about this. Whole lotta red.

 

[droid]

Wow. Goldman Sachs saying US GDP to fall by -5%.