Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)

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WashYourHands

WashYourHands

Cat Malogen
mixed_biscuits said:
Great, but why isn't there a tidal wave of reinfections then?
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Because there's still an ongoing swathe of initial infections.

Also to play devil's advocate, there could be reinfections going on that aren't recorded, because people have self isolated and our data trace, test and recording organisation has been what the kids call an epic fail. Complete conjecture, but it doesn't seem to put you and HmmGuv off.

Added to that, we just let a new, more infectious strain flood out of the SE and London as people depart for their hols. Brilliant end to the year.

Led by donkeys when a Colonel Kurtz is needed.
 
mixed_biscuits

mixed_biscuits

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They are looking for them: PHE have been carrying out longitudinal random sampling for months. In fact, it has revealed some reinfections but not many.

Bear in mind that ppl are researching this thing worldwide and also that we would hear about reinfections anecdotally - not least from health care workers.
 
chava

chava

Well-known member
What I don't understand is why all the right wing libertarian types didn't foresee the rapid development of the (mRNA) vaccines. They often seem to be pretty "science will solve it all, just you wait", but nobody thought that could happen within a year. Which is weird as Moderna apparantly made the vaccine in a few days, you'd though that someone had a insider clue.
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
@mixed_biscuits, can we get an update on UK herd immunity?

Because back in August, it was apparently "close":

mixed_biscuits said:
Myth-busting from Oxford's Prof. Sunetra Gupta:

Myth 1: We can keep it out
Myth 2: We are all going to die
Myth 3: We are nowhere close to herd immunity

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Then in October:

mixed_biscuits said:
Backfired somewhat, especially as the country ended up getting herd immunity in most parts anyway.
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There were 36,000 new diagnoses yesterday. That doesn't sound like "immunity" to me.
 
HMGovt’s Glorious Return!

HMGovt’s Glorious Return!

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chava said:
What I don't understand is why all the right wing libertarian types didn't foresee the rapid development of the (mRNA) vaccines. They often seem to be pretty "science will solve it all, just you wait", but nobody thought that could happen within a year. Which is weird as Moderna apparantly made the vaccine in a few days, you'd though that someone had a insider clue.
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Trump did say it would be ready this year, and got shot down for it.
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
mixed_biscuits said:
@Mr. Tea the second wave of -withs is much shallower than the first despite worse weather - that's cos of HI.
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I'm talking about infections, not deaths. And the "withs/ofs" distinction is now irrelevant, since they're only counting deaths from covid if they occur within 28 days of a positive diagnosis, bearing in mind that even when someone enters a nursing home, the remaining life expectancy is still around two years.
 
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mixed_biscuits

mixed_biscuits

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That's not true re -with recording; find NHS data to reach enlightenment.

Pos tests are a different thing to current infections or even cases.

This spoonfeeding is tiresome; do some research yourself too.
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
mixed_biscuits said:
That's not true re -with recording; find NHS data to reach enlightenment.

Pos tests are a different thing to current infections or even cases.

This spoonfeeding is tiresome; do some research yourself too.
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Ha! So you've reached the level of "do your own research".

Anyway, the government is presenting both covid deaths within 28 days of a positive test *and* deaths following a positive test after any interval of time. Now the vast majority of people can expect to live for more than 28 day from any given day, even in a nursing home, so for these deaths the distinction between "with" and "of" is meaningless. It's people who've been killed by the virus.
coronadeaths.JPG

Moreover, I have to wonder how long you plan on striking this anti-government rebel pose, while continuing to (mis)represent the data in such a way as to show the government's handling of the pandemic in the best possible light by minimizing the number of deaths and serious complications.
 
mixed_biscuits

mixed_biscuits

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It's just annoying because you get given new information - from a variety of people - of which you were plainly ignorant beforehand and there's no evidence that you can integrate it into your thinking.

Because you don't seem able to use this new information when others provide it, then the only way you can progress is by finding things out for yourself.
 
shiels

shiels

_
Mr. Tea said:
Ha! So you've reached the level of "do your own research".

Anyway, the government is presenting both covid deaths within 28 days of a positive test *and* deaths following a positive test after any interval of time. Now the vast majority of people can expect to live for more than 28 day from any given day, even in a nursing home, so for these deaths the distinction between "with" and "of" is meaningless. It's people who've been killed by the virus.
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hmmm. but its just not that simple is it. co-morbidities. im in hospital with a massive brain tumour and on my last legs. I catch covid in there and die a week later. how did i die? mostly brain tumour. did covid quicken the process? possibly. covid will be on my death certificate and ill be recorded as a covid death but how will my family say I died? this isnt to say the data is wrong, its just a very simple and quite misleading way to talk about mortality rates because it doesn't account for any complexity

likewise with specific cancer deaths, any year theres a bad flu in winter theres a big spike in cancer deaths. id say very few of those families say their relatives died of flu, even tho flu finished them off
 
Mr. Tea

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
shiels said:
hmmm. but its just not that simple is it. co-morbidities. im in hospital with a massive brain tumour and on my last legs. I catch covid in there and die a week later. how did i die? mostly brain tumour. did covid quicken the process? possibly. covid will be on my death certificate and ill be recorded as a covid death but how will my family say I died? this isnt to say the data is wrong, its just a very simple and quite misleading way to talk about mortality rates because it doesn't account for any complexity

likewise with specific cancer deaths, any year theres a bad flu in winter theres a big spike in cancer deaths. id say very few of those families say their relatives died of flu, even tho flu finished them off
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Sure, there are going to be some cases like that, but how many, really? Not a statistically significant number, I think. I mean a disease that only kills people who have a few weeks left to live isn't going to make any difference to the overall number of deaths in a year.

In many cases, the only "co-mobidity" is "being old", but the average 70-year-old in this country can expect to be be alive for another 16 years.

(Sorry to hear about your brain tumour, btw, hope you get better soon. x)
 
luka

luka

Well-known member
One of my other, less paranoid cousins

"...We in New Zealand are beyond lucky to have had the wonderful Jacinda and our new Saint Dr Ashley Bloomfield to guide us through it all.
Sometimes we forget there's a pandemic going on because we are basically back to normal, bar wearing masks on public transport and scanning into places to record we go and turning on special bluetooth tracking.
But when my fibroid twisted and I was in terrible pain, I didn't worry and I was able to go to hospital and get it sorted.
All the Doctors and Nurses were relaxed and jolly. In a pandemic.
One of my nurses had friends working in the UK and said it's the stuff of nightmares and that the care we can offer those who have COVID in New Zealand is of a higher standard because we have so few cases caught at the border. Our health system isn't overwhelmed.
Tbh it's ages since anyone has had to come into hospital they've all been able to be treated at our dedicated COVID facilities."
 
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