more broadly, I've heard from a couple doctor friends that they expect lockdown in most/all of the U.S. to go until the middle of June
I couldn't explain all the underlying math, obviously, but:
that's based on current models of often it doubles and how many people it's likely to infect, giving about an 11-week curve
that would see about a quarter of the population infected, or ~80m people, with 1m+ dead
however: I'm not sure to what degree that takes into account quarantine measures
also: no epidemiologist knows right now - b/c there's not enough data - what geographical distribution will be like
so direct impacts may continue in a rolling wave - would not be surprised to see this happen in Italy, for example - until there's a widely distributed vaccine
plus resurgences once restrictions are lifted, of course