Yeah but there are other ways to win, CW populism uses media driven moral panics, instead of say, old school style crony tribal democracy
tribal democracy only works if you have the numbers
I strongly believe that right-wing strategists recognized long ago that they were demographically fucked, and what that meant
it was probably obvious pretty far back to anyone paying attention
you have a country that is getting more racially diverse, less religious overall, and less Christian specifically
those are your tribal factors
and if you don't have tribalism, you have to sell your actual policies
which are what? more tax cuts for billionaires? very difficult to get working-class White people worked up about that.
traditionally what you get them worked up about is race. "your children will have to go to school with Black children" etc.
they tried gay people, but it turns out Americans by and large don't care enough about that to make it a primary dog whistle.
gender identity is newer, more challenging, etc so it's a better dog whistle.
and while you're at it you can still try all the old classics ("critical race theory") because why not.