US Election 2024

Leo

Well-known member
@Leo Do you know what happens if Trump is selected as the GOP candidate but then has to pull out due to legal or health problems? Would the runner-up then get the nomination by default?

And is there any credible alternative to Biden on the other side?

Trump has cockroach DNA, he will never die or pull out due to legal issues (the cases will drag out for years and he'll use them to play up his martyr image). Also, there is no clearcut runner up, since each state conducts its own primary election. You could say the candidate with the second-most state wins is next in line, but they don't allocate electoral votes (ie, points) like in the general election. Not sure what would happen, maybe the party would select someone (and it could be the "next in line" but not necessarily).

I don't think Biden will be opposed in the Dem primary. A few people have declared, but they're insignificant and won't ever reach the polling and fundraising criteria needed to qualify for the debate stage.

Has there ever been an election where the sitting president has tried to stand again but lost in the primary and failed to become the candidate?

Have no idea about throughout history, but that sort of happened to Lyndon Johnson. He was all set to cruise to re-election when the Tet Offensive blew up his Vietnam plans. He barely beat Eugene McCarthy (a weak candidate) in the first primary, then Bobby Kennedy declared himself a candidate. Johnson knew he couldn't beat the young, charismatic Kennedy, so he dropped out of the race.
 

Leo

Well-known member
It’s going to get ugly, that much is predictable

Easy to look on as foreigners not having to live with consequences of direct outcomes. You wonder about Biden’s age, the ethnicity and sex of KH and voting patterns, plenty of “f*ck Joe Biden” sentiment out n about and whether a new regime will support Ukrainian ambitions another turning point in waiting

Can’t say I envy you @Leo , unfortunately noisy rabble reap the headlines and this contingent seem ever greater in reach, ambition, ignorance and agency

I find some solace in a couple of things. Outrage makes that headlines, so that's what you hear and see in news and on social media. However, MAGA candidates have routinely lost -- in some cases, "biggly" -- in 2021 and 2022, so that's a sign that a quieter majority of voters are not into it.

And I can't believe all of the court cases against Trump gain him one independent or moderate GOP voter. The diehard MAGA voters will always stick with Trump, but hard to see how the cases do anything but hurt him with non-MAGA voters. I know, he leads in the GOP primary polls, but primary voters are more hardcore conservative/right than general election GOP voters.

I mean, who knows. No one aside from @craner thought Trump would win last time, but it's harder to fathom this time.
 

version

Well-known member
Talking of Kennedys, Bobby Jr.'s an entertaining addition to the election drama.


 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
You only see the clips people think are worth sharing, but Harris seems nuts. She doesn't appear to do much more than laugh her way through muddled speeches and interviews.
I did a longer take in some thread or other about all her terrible policies as a DA and then AG in California, the tldr being that she epitomized the most cowardly end of Democrats who try to preemptively answer the inevitable GOP soft on crime attacks by going out of her way to enforce a slew of needlessly cruel and draconian policies instead of having the courage to say maybe we should try literally anything else besides giving cops more $ and more weapons.

Then, since it was impossible for Democrats to inhabit that space post-George Floyd - tho now it's creeping back in - she tried to rebrand herself as America's Cool Aunt and it predictably fell flat on its face. it's a definite own goal, but otoh she could a paragon of good sense and professionalism and the RW media would still portray her as a lunatic Islamomarxist whatever, so it's pretty irrelevant.

No one cares about or votes for/against VPs. Biden's VP terms were one long punchline of gaffes. Dan Quayle. Etc. And ofc whoever her opponent winds up being will almost certainly be way crazier. It really only matters in terms of how viable she is for 2028, and I'd say not very but also a lot can happen in 4+ years.
 

version

Well-known member
I don't think Biden will be opposed in the Dem primary. A few people have declared, but they're insignificant and won't ever reach the polling and fundraising criteria needed to qualify for the debate stage.
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padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
The metanarrative of American electoral politics is that RW have seen the demographic writing on the wall for a long time and are doing everything in their power, short of open civil war, to subvert it

i.e. white voters w/o college degrees, almost synonymous w/GOP base, are losing voter share in every election cycle to a more racially diverse, better-educated electorate. that's very unlikely to stop, let alone reverse. hence the intense focus on voter fraud and voter ID laws, the attacks on election officials, etc. hence using the Senate, where the GOP has a massive built-in advantage, as a means to control the makeup of the Supreme Court and impose policy (i.e. the bans and restrictions on reproductive rights post Roe v Wade overturn) thru judicial rule. hence the assault on trans people in an attempt to split the Democratic coalition, with the side benefit of pushing overwhelmingly Democratic voters out of battleground states.

that shouldn't be news to anyone but it maybe helps to sum it up in a single paragraph
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
A good percentage of Latino and Asian voters are pretty conservative and voted for Trump, so "racially diverse" ≠ Democrat
Learn to read, boss

The claim wasn't that no POC voted for Trump. It was that a more racially diverse electorate almost certainly favors Democrats, outside of specific circumstances (i.e. Cuban-Americans in FL). Trump's coalition was 85% white. Biden's was 61% white. A large difference, you'll notice.

And, if demographics are not a massive GOP concern, why have they spent the last decade plus doing everything they can to disenfranchise likely Democratic voters?
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Sidenote: do you - hmg or whatever you call yourself these days - ever get tired of simping hard and nonstop for RW American politicians who could not give less of a fuck about England? It just seems so tiring to endlessly and slavishly parrot every RW talking point about a country you don't even live in. Like, do you not even have any of your own bad opinions?

Same thing when Brandon Johnson got elected and Twitter was full of mfers with blue checkmarks and American flags in their bios going "RIP Chicago". Like motherfucker you don't even live here.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
It's actually election 2022 which hasn't got a thread, but Kari Lake lost her last legal attempt to overturn her defeat. Though maybe she can appeal...

Seems this one depended on her showing how quickly the signatures were verified and thus casting doubt on the votes. Seems a bit tenuous in that she didn't show that there were any actual errors or, if there were, that they favoured her opponent.
 
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