The "how I will be watching the election results" thread

[craner]

Robert Gates!

 

[vimothy]

Hope so.

 

[vimothy]

A few from here, perhaps?

 

[craner]

Ho ho - the sneaky little man!

 

[vimothy]

Well cheeky!

 

[swears]

Had chippy tonight to celebrate.

Not sure I buy all this "redrawing the map" stuff though, if he fails to "mend this broken economy" he'll be out on his arse in 2012. He's got a massive uphill struggle on his hands on a lot of fronts.

Ho ho - the sneaky little man!

One thing I think he has to do is scrap that missile defence sheild program in Poland (without looking like a total pussy), I've heard it doesn't work anyway.

 

[crackerjack]

I've read Rahm Emanuel was the inspiration for http://www.imdb.com/character/ch0018956/

Which can only be a good thing - Bartlett got two terms - though the life-imitating-art aspect is kinda weird.

 

[crackerjack]

I can't let Sarah go

NEWSWEEK has also learned that Palin's shopping spree at high-end department stores was more extensive than previously reported. While publicly supporting Palin, McCain's top advisers privately fumed at what they regarded as her outrageous profligacy. One senior aide said that Nicolle Wallace had told Palin to buy three suits for the convention and hire a stylist. But instead, the vice presidential nominee began buying for herself and her family—clothes and accessories from top stores such as Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus. According to two knowledgeable sources, a vast majority of the clothes were bought by a wealthy donor, who was shocked when he got the bill. Palin also used low-level staffers to buy some of the clothes on their credit cards. The McCain campaign found out last week when the aides sought reimbursement. One aide estimated that she spent "tens of thousands" more than the reported $150,000, and that $20,000 to $40,000 went to buy clothes for her husband. Some articles of clothing have apparently been lost. An angry aide characterized the shopping spree as "Wasilla hillbillies looting Neiman Marcus from coast to coast," and said the truth will eventually come out when the Republican Party audits its books.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/167581/page/1

 

[Mr. Tea]

Anyone else see Dizzee Rascal - "Mr. Rascal" to Paxo - on Newsnight just now? He said something rather optimistic about how it shows that anyone can be anything they want, then when Paxman said "Well why don't you stand for government then?" he replied that he might just do that.

 

[crackerjack]

Not sure I buy all this "redrawing the map" stuff though, if he fails to "mend this broken economy" he'll be out on his arse in 2012. He's got a massive uphill struggle on his hands on a lot of fronts.

Not necessarily. Obviously the economy matters, but the demographic changes aren't going away. The US will get less WASP, not more and if the GOP continues turning itself into a nativist party, building walls and denying immigrant rights, then no amount of abortion waffle is going to bring the Hispanic vote back. Bush & Rove weren't stupid - which is why the presidnecy has been more liberal on this issue than the party for the last 8 years. McCain, being from Arizona, understood it too, but having been so closely identified with the liberal policy, he felt obliged to turn somersaults to get the nomination.

Nevada and New Mexico went this time. Arizona could well go in 2012. A flat economy might mean Obama loses Ohio, but retains Florida (esp if anoother fundie on the ticket means the GOp get squeezed both by Hispanics and Jews).

Racial guff here:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122584499389399483.html#articleTabs=article

And a breakdown for the lazy (someone else did the sums, so don't blame me if they're wrong - i just c/p-ed)

Some statistics from the WSJ.

Total Obama McCain
White 74% 43% 55%
Black 13% 95% 4%
Hispanic 8% 66% 31%
Total 52% 46%

Jews:
Orthodox 13% 78%
Conservative 59% 26%
Reform 62% 27%

 

[crackerjack]

Anyone else see Dizzee Rascal - "Mr. Rascal" to Paxo - on Newsnight just now? He said something rather optimistic about how it shows that anyone can be anything they want, then when Paxman said "Well why don't you stand for government then?" he replied that he might just do that.

Yo, yo i dont obey no policemen cos they forget they're human uh
get excited quickly but, he aint got a gun i'll kick him and run (tell him)
don't talk to me about roaming cos queen elizabeth dont know me so
how can she control me when i live street and she lives neat

http://www.lyricstime.com/dizzee-rascal-2-far-lyrics.html

 

[vimothy]

Was it the financial crisis?

Well?

 

[vimothy]

Obama wins the Latino vote:

A large majority of Latinos turned out to vote for Barack Obama on Tuesday, exit polls showed. 67 percent of Latino voters picked Obama overall, while 31 percent voted for Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in the national election. Hispanic voters helped deliver several crucial states to the Obama campaign, including Florida, Nevada and Colorado.
In Florida, where Cuban-American voters have long been a reliably Republican bloc, some exit polls showed Obama with 35 percent of their vote– more than double what former Democratic candidate John Kerry received from the group in 2004 (CBS). This CFR.org Issue Tracker details the candidates’ positions on U.S. policy toward Cuba.
In total, Obama got 57 percent of the Latino vote in Florida (CNN), while 42 percent went to McCain, exit polls showed. In Colorado, 73 percent of Hispanic voters supported Obama. In Nevada, Obama received 76 percent of the Latino vote, according to exit polls.
McCain at one time enjoyed popular support from Hispanic voters in his home state of Arizona. The Dallas Morning News’ Emily Ramshaw writes today that the McCain campaign had been hoping McCain’s “immigration experience and social conservatism would appeal to Latinos.” But on Tuesday, according to exit polls, Obama won 56 percent of Arizona’s Latino vote, compared with McCain’s 41 percent.​

 

[crackerjack]

Anyone you know?

http://www.theonion.com/content/video/obama_win_causes_obsessive??utm_source=onion_rss_daily

 

[matt b]

It's a warm, damp, misty day in Sheffield today with lovely mellow autumn colours everywhere and I am drifting around with a heavy, hungover head, tired, but happy.

the best way to contemplate the ridings


hopefully, obama will maintain the awakened grassroots activism and elicit real change: http://www.zmag.org/znet/viewArticle/19355

znet also has an interesting breakdown of votes by class/ethnicity/education:
http://www.zmag.org/znet/viewArticle/19358

poor 'unedecuted' white voters still suffering from false class consciousness?

 

[vimothy]

Hey matt I get nothing on that last link.

Have you heard of Andrew Gelman? His just released a book -- I've not read it yet -- that seems to show that, far from this popular belief in poor heartlands Republicanism, the real issue is explaining why rich educated voters display false class consciousness, i.e. vote Democrat, in rich states. Not sure how it breaks down according to ethnicity. Looking for graphs...

 

[vimothy]

Here:

 

[vimothy]

Rich voter share:

 

[crackerjack]

Hey matt I get nothing on that last link.

Have you heard of Andrew Gelman? His just released a book -- I've not read it yet -- that seems to show that, far from this popular belief in poor heartlands Republicanism, the real issue is explaining why rich educated voters display false class consciousness, i.e. vote Democrat, in rich states. Not sure how it breaks down according to ethnicity. Looking for graphs...

Erm, I'm confused - don't these graphs demonstrate the opposite? Bush's vote seems to rise with income in all of them.

Edit: OK, missed that second one at first - but still, only a slight dip.

Although i also see there seems to be turn away from the reps for the upper m/c in the first set, though not by much, except with Hispanics.

 

[matt b]

Hey matt I get nothing on that last link.

mmm, works when i try it.

i'll check the gelman stuff on the morrow xxx