Iranian democracy

J

josef k.

Dangerous Mystagogue
6) The Basij. Does Ahmadinejad control the Basij? Are they his real power base? If so, this is starting to look like a fascist coup.
 
J

josef k.

Dangerous Mystagogue
7) If Ahmadinejad retains power, Obama will not be able to talk to Iran, further destabilizing the Middle East.
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
Riot police had driven off anti-government demonstrators and the sting of tear gas in the air was fading yesterday when the heavy-set man in a camouflage uniform grabbed me, shouting in Farsi, and pushed me into a throng of riot police.

They shouted while I waved my hand and said "Canadian" to no effect. Before I knew what was happening, I was whisked away on a motorcycle to the Interior Ministry headquarters, and taken to a large basement room.

Inside a concrete room to my left, I could see more than 50 others being made to stand in uncomfortable positions - on their toes with their hands pressed behind their heads. Some were covered in blood, and police with batons patrolled the rows, tapping some detainees on the shoulders with their sticks.

There was no screaming, just the sound of boots pacing on the concrete floor....
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http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/crackdown-in-iran-as-anger-rages-over-vote/article1181953/
 
padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
speculative answers

1) What motivation would Khamenei have for rigging the elections? He's worked with (and controlled) moderate reformers (Khatami) before, and Moussavi wasn't a dangerous radical, but a full member of the establishment.

growing power of Ahmadinejad, for one.

also, ironically, worried about legitimacy. feels he is in a weaker position than he was when Khatami was elected. as you feel power slipping away you grasp it ever tighter. rigging the elections so crudely an "overreaction" as Vim mentioned.

2) Ahmadinejad leaves Iran almost as soon as the result is called, and has said almost nothing of substance about it so far. Why?

if you want to downplay something don't talk about it.

3) Where is Khamenei? He has said nothing at all... If he is in fact the target of an attempted coup (rather than one of the instigators of it) Ahmadinejad's position suddenly starts to look at lot weaker.

what if the coup is by Ahmadinejad & various IRGC etc supporters?

4) I don't think the IRGC anticipated this level of protest, and I think events could be overtaking the Ahmadinejad faction...

they probably didn't anticipate this but I'm dubious about "overtaking". listen, dude, these regimes the world over & their hombres con armas - I very unenthusiastically tell you that they will murder & disappear & torture a great deal before they let themselves be "overtaken"...
 
C

crackerjack

Well-known member
2) Ahmadinejad leaves Iran almost as soon as the result is called, and has said almost nothing of substance about it so far. Why?

if you want to downplay something don't talk about it.
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He made one speech that offended half the country, the dirt and dust one. Then he had to go Russia, now he's under wraps, I guess, bit like Cheney during most of Bush's reign, they probably see him as a pr disaster.

what if the coup is by Ahmadinejad & various IRGC etc supporters?
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But Khameni clearly favours Ahmadinejad (see today's speech)
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
Is there a translation anywhere? All the talk I hear is of Khamenei sucking up to Rasfanjani in his speech and it consequently looking as if Mousavi is going to be left hanging in the wind....
 
padraig (u.s.)

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
crackerjack said:
...now he's under wraps, I guess, bit like Cheney during most of Bush's reign, they probably see him as a pr disaster.
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right, but what other figure from the regime - prior to Khamenei's speech - had spoken out at all? I think it's a bit more complicated than he's a pr disaster - after all they were happy to have him bang away on Holocaust denial & all that other nonsense. More like he's a tool - useful for some jobs, but not for others.

crackerjack said:
But Khameni clearly favours Ahmadinejad (see today's speech
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yeah but that's the entire question - who's pulling the strings of the other, Khameini or Ahmadinejad?

also 2 things I enjoyed from the Khamenei's speech:

Great Britain...the most evil of [Iran's enemies]
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way to go you Limey chancers! UK stays winning on the #1 evil tip!:D

How can one rig 11 million votes
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well, if you don't count the votes in the first place...
 
C

crackerjack

Well-known member
vimothy said:
Is there a translation anywhere? All the talk I hear is of Khamenei sucking up to Rasfanjani in his speech and it consequently looking as if Mousavi is going to be left hanging in the wind....
Click to expand...

the guardian's update page has a link to a full translation
 
vimothy

vimothy

yurp
I find it hard to credit AN with leading a coup, though, and in any case, his post is constitutionally not particularly significant. Unless, of course, he controls the supreme leader, or whoever controls AN (some shadowy IRGC faction) also controls the supreme leader (perhaps more likely).
 
C

crackerjack

Well-known member
way to go you Limey chancers! UK stays winning on the #1 evil tip!
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I quite like that, it's like when you read about these Iranians who are convinced the British were behind the 79 Revolution and if it wasn't old PA they'd still have their Shah. I feel this perverse flush of pride.
 
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