Election 2020
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
it's still maybe only the event everyone in the world has to pay some kind of attention to
I don't say that in a chauvinistic sense, just a reality
China and Russia don't have real elections to pay attention to. people did start paying more attention to Brazil last time w/Bolsonaro.
I don't remember anyone paying attention to the Indian election last year, possibly in part bc it was a foregone conclusion.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
iirc 538's aggregate - which was more optimistic about his chances than many individual polls - had him around 30% in the final run-up
that takes into account the Electoral College etc
definitely still an upset, but not a crazy upset like if he had been a 10-1 underdog, which is what it has him at now
so yeah, the margin of error would have to be much, much larger - which again, sure, anything can happen, it' s just not likely to
he's also failed to gain back any ground since the debates, Hunter Biden, etc
luka
Well-known member
@suspendedreason make a prediction please brother
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Perhaps very early on, when he was still regarded basically as a joke candidate. But:
How Biden’s lead is different from Clinton’s — and why the polls are different this time
Trump is facing an even higher degree of difficulty to pull off another stunner. And there are realistic scenarios in which Biden wins running away.
www.inquirer.com
I think an error of 1% isn't disastrously wrong.
IdleRich
IdleRich
Yeah of course it's not totally decided but I really want to hear an argument for why anyone thinks Trump is gonna win.
I think Craner said something like "I've got a hunch" and fine, doesn't need to defended, just a weird feeling in the tummy.
Luka's saying "it could happen" and yeah it could. But is there anything at all that makes you think it will.
HMGT predicting huge increase in majority and so on. Yeah you want that to happen but do you have any argument for thinking it's going to happen.
Maybe I am missing something, I would like to hear what though. Someone.
I think Craner said something like "I've got a hunch" and fine, doesn't need to defended, just a weird feeling in the tummy.
Luka's saying "it could happen" and yeah it could. But is there anything at all that makes you think it will.
HMGT predicting huge increase in majority and so on. Yeah you want that to happen but do you have any argument for thinking it's going to happen.
Maybe I am missing something, I would like to hear what though. Someone.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
define "peaceful"
IdleRich
IdleRich
You're offering 25 to 1 on what?
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
I want to see droid's reaction to being slandered as a centrist liberal first!
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
the first two, yes
the last is probably still yes but I'm less confident of it, tho not enough to take odds
candidates have always been unwilling to drag things out past a certain point
but Trump has neither shame nor any sense of responsibility so he can see him trying to do that
he and his people previously made noise about trying to delay the election
it still probably comes off without a hitch but I think there's a reasonable chance of some kind of nonsense
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
basically those
tho you could also make prop bets on most anything, including a peaceful transfer of power