Russia Surrounded
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- craner boobs disco dasha nekrasova good old obsessive antiamericanism gullfire over leningrad j. h. prynne jamaican voodoo gang from predator 2 my indian mate in year 11 with downs syndrome oliver ukrainer sanctuary of apollo shaka's secret mission snake island the black sea the good old party spirit of desert storm the gust of kiev the russo-ucranerian war wagner man falling out of the sky we're all neocons now whatabouastic whataboutery whataboutish whataboutism whataboutistic who controls the serpent
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
I mean sure, if your criteria is avoiding total collapse and comprehensive ejection from all of Ukraine, including the parts they've occupied since 2014
then yes, Russia has cleared that lowest of bars
then yes, Russia has cleared that lowest of bars
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
by literally any other standard, including the goals Russian leadership had at the beginning of the war, it's an unmitigated disaster
Russia is running out of both soldiers and equipment, recruiting stations are getting shot up and firebombed, Russians who can have fled in droves
etc etc
Russia is running out of both soldiers and equipment, recruiting stations are getting shot up and firebombed, Russians who can have fled in droves
etc etc
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
the one caveat I see is that maybe they think they can just hold on until Trump/DeSantis whoever drastically cuts aid
but even leaving aside that none of that is guaranteed, anything short of a triumphant march into Kyiv would be a huge embarrassment
to expend this much blood and treasure, expose your military as, at least currently, a paper tiger, for basically nothing? disaster
but even leaving aside that none of that is guaranteed, anything short of a triumphant march into Kyiv would be a huge embarrassment
to expend this much blood and treasure, expose your military as, at least currently, a paper tiger, for basically nothing? disaster
IdleRich
IdleRich
Aidan was certainly claiming more than that before... we'll see if he still is.
I think he was saying that ultimately Russia would achieve its aims and at that point this will be seen as merely a delay that will be soon forgotten.
That's my guess but I should wait for his reply to be certain.
I've heard of him for some reason, can't remember why though. He's apparently been described as "the Putin wing of the GOP" by Liz Cheney and is a Trump appointee. He apparently proposed extrajudicial execution for anyone illegally crossing the US/Mexico border. Anti-NATO, seems to be.
(Anti-NATO sentiment will be a real and growing problem going forward amongst the GOP even with this war sounding a warning about NATO's necessity).
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
I can't be arsed to go back and look for it, but in another post I think he said Russia was "doing pretty well." I then asked him what he thought Russia doing pretty badly would look like, and I don't think I got an answer to that.
It's all been a series of very clever feints. Also, they are winning the war against Ukraine, in fact they've already theoretically won it because it's impossible for them to lose; it's the West that has caused them all of the problems.
I think that's the gist of it.
The thing is, Ukraine are not capable of forcing the Russians out, IIRC, they took less than 12% of territory back last year in what was generally considered to be outstanding progress.
As it stands Russia have achieved their minimalist objectives, to take, hold and annex much of the Donbass and create a land link with their previously seized territory in Crimea. In terms of the battlefield conflict, the prospect of a swift victory for either side seems impossible, and if the leaked cables are to be trusted then Ukraine is in much worse shape militarily than is generally discussed. iIt also seems that the sanctions have been less effective than hoped. In the long term the war will probably be disastrous for the aggressor ofc, but that's true of most wars.
The longer the war continues the greater the chances of escalation. We already had a potentially deadly encounter between RU and UK air forces last year. The choice now seems to be between years of grinding bitter conflict, increasing risk of escalation and then eventual negotiations, or de-escalation now and the negotiations. As things stand it seems the West is happy to go with option 1 and hope something magical happens in the meantime.
As it stands Russia have achieved their minimalist objectives, to take, hold and annex much of the Donbass and create a land link with their previously seized territory in Crimea. In terms of the battlefield conflict, the prospect of a swift victory for either side seems impossible, and if the leaked cables are to be trusted then Ukraine is in much worse shape militarily than is generally discussed. iIt also seems that the sanctions have been less effective than hoped. In the long term the war will probably be disastrous for the aggressor ofc, but that's true of most wars.
The longer the war continues the greater the chances of escalation. We already had a potentially deadly encounter between RU and UK air forces last year. The choice now seems to be between years of grinding bitter conflict, increasing risk of escalation and then eventual negotiations, or de-escalation now and the negotiations. As things stand it seems the West is happy to go with option 1 and hope something magical happens in the meantime.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Do you not think that if a ceasefire is signed with Russia holding onto significantly more territory than it already controlled prior to last year, then Putin (or whoever is in charge next) will interpret that as a 'win', and come back for more as soon as he's had a chance to rebuild his heavy armour and conscript more men?
Yeah, that's possible, and in that situation I imagine that Ukraine will be doing everything they can to rebuild forces as well. Regardless, barring some unexpected development a ceasefire and negotiated settlement is what will happen, sooner or later. What happens afterwards will happen. Probably a long and protracted LIC characterised by terrorist attacks on the UKR side and atrocity and repression from RUS.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Well yeah, it can't go on until the heat death of the universe, and it's obviously not going to end with Ukraine capturing Moscow and putting Putin's head on a spike. The question will be how much of Ukraine Russia is in control of when that happens - it could be 0%, it could be just Crimea and Donbas, or it could be much more than that.
IdleRich
IdleRich
This sounds more like what Aidan said previously.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
I'm old enough to remember when Putin was dying of cancer.
West prepares for Putin to use ‘whatever tools he’s got left’ in Ukraine
Officials ready for nuclear threats and cyber-attacks as part of Russian response to predicted counter-offensive
www.theguardian.com
The former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev said last month that Moscow was ready for the Ukrainians to hit back, warning that his country would use “absolutely any weapon” if Kyiv attempted to retake Crimea, which was annexed by Russia in 2014.
Heading to that point where Russia will commit themselves to doing something really stupid if they come under attack in Crimea.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
of course
I guess it depends if you think that those minimal objectives are worth what they've paid for them
especially in relation to their much more grandiose original objectives
as you'd surely think minimal objectives could have been achieved without faceplanting into Kyiv, getting armored columns shot up left and right, etc
(assuming that was not all, yunno, just a galaxy-brain level series of extremely costly feints)
I can see "not losing" enough that it can be spun as a win by Putin et al but a resounding victory it is not