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padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
I reckon March 19th will go down in history as the day that the coronavirus dam truly burst in the US. new cases up almost 50% over the entire previous total, deaths up by over a third of entire previous total.

seems basically certain we'll be at Italy level daily death numbers by the end of the month. if not worse.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Just been looking at Twitter and loads of people are commenting to the effect of "No way I'm staying at home all day" - which doesn't exactly bode well.
it'll be a process. many people will stay at home if ordered to. a significant portion won't. we'll have to see how effective an order not backed up by draconian repression is.

I wish these people understood that mass compliance with orders like this is the only to avoid or at least mitigate literal or de facto martial law.

as I said somewhere upthread, there are costs to living in a freer society, and we're about to pay them (combined with, of course, the costs of mostly abysmal leadership up until now/very recently)
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
It's got to sink in soon... from what I'm seeing it seems as though a lot of people in the US are still not getting it yet.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
on a personal note, our best remaining client just had a confirmed case. not someone I or my coworkers directly interacted with, but obv she could've spread it to such a person. they're shutting down, we're waiting for the first report of symptoms.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
just tbc, I'm totally calm. it threw me for a second, but for a while now I have been - in no small part due to droid and some other people, for which I give thanks - mentally prepared for basically anything.

bad luck that our best client caught a case this early into things - one of the first 500 confirmed cases in a state of 11+ million - but it was bound to happen eventually.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Er, perhaps "understanding it" would have been a better choice of words.
idk I think they're both right. understanding is on an intellectual, sinking in is gut/heart. I think former probably happens first.

every week now is basically a new world. 2 weeks was a different world, last week was when it get serious for people, this week we are where we are. I don't think the severity/scope has sunk in for many people yet.

partially cos the government did such a bad job preparing people, partially cos Trump has been particularly awful, partially cos America for better and worse has always favored the individual over the collective good.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Yeah, I don't think you seem particularly uncalm... not beyond what the circumstances require.
I have anxiety about the long-term economic outlook, and my portfolio, but not any existential anxiety

it helps that I don't have children. in the unlikely event I were to die, I'm at peace with it.

The Plague is, besides a great book that everyone should read, and among other things, an examination of human behavior and decision-making under extreme conditions. I have been thinking about it pretty often.

I believe this will be an event that people will look back on - "what did you do during coronavirus". how did you behave? what decisions did you make?

there's an ethical duty to remain as calm as one possibly can, I think, and to try to help others to do the same.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Like I say... I hope that we do remember it as a one-off thing... the time when things changed for the better.
I meant "getting it" sounded as though I was talking about catching the virus rather than understanding the severity of the situation.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
it'll be a process. many people will stay at home if ordered to. a significant portion won't. we'll have to see how effective an order not backed up by draconian repression is.

I wish these people understood that mass compliance with orders like this is the only to avoid or at least mitigate literal or de facto martial law.

Any country that provides a safety net for everyone can reasonably expect people to stay at home. Any that doesn't is not only morally bankrupt, but completely crazy, and can't expect anything from anyone.

Of course the issue is to what extent the governments of reckless countries give a shit.
 

DannyL

Wild Horses
I just wanted to share my exasperation with my family. My Mum is meant to move from her current place into a sheltered housing set up. My sister and cousin are hassling me to book moving vans etc because "she might lose the flat". Jesus fucking Christ. IS THERE - PERHAPS - SOMETHING ELSE GOING ON? WTF is it with people? Why must normal life carry on, undisturbed?
 

sufi

lala
Dealing with my elders was definitely my most difficult time thru this, so far
it took a few days to talk them around
 

droid

Well-known member
Big jump in cases here yesterday (due to ramping up of testing) and a third death, which brings us to a death rate of 0.5%. Were being helped hugely by having one of the youngest populations in Europe.

Went out today to pick up a few things and I cant see how this can continue even with the measures we have. Some places are reasonably good at taking precautions, at others it's just a normal Saturday afternoon at the retail park. Full lockdown is inevitable IMO. Government still failing to take proper economic measures as well, but they will come.

Ive mentioned section5's current affairs column here previously. Here's his take on the UK's failure.

THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT has been forced into a u-turn as the full scale of its calamitous coronavirus policy finally began to penetrate minds in Number 10. Boris Johnson has been subject to enormous criticism over his handling of the outbreak with a growing number of health professionals and scientists questioning his refusal to implement social distancing and the stringent safety methods adopted elsewhere.

The UK were pursuing a different course of action, or rather inaction, which its government claimed was backed up by science. Given how little is still known about the virus, the World Health Organisation emphasised in response that “while theories can be talked about, the current situation requires action”. Number 10 however remained reluctant to even share the evidence on which their assumptions rested and faced mounting accusations of a lack of transparency.

Tory hubris is not the only culprit, however, Johnson’s response was greatly influenced by a piece of seductive thinking that has been widely embraced by management consultants and policy makers in recent years. Underpinning the UK approach is the so-called. “nudge theory”, a piece psycho-babble from the field of behavioural science popularised by legal academic, Cass Sunstein. Like economic policies similarly hatched at the University of Chicago, the theory favours individual action over government intervention and is right at home with governments of a certain persuasion in Britain, America and elsewhere. Readers may recall that Ireland’s own Climate Action Plan was launched last June with Leo Varadkar claiming his government will “nudge people and businesses to change behaviour”.

Instead of following any sort of established science, Johnson’s government were engaging in an ill-advised experiment and one with grave consequences for millions of people.

Sunstein himself is no stranger to these shores having visited UCD and Trinity College, while his research is the stuff of daytime radio fodder on Newstalk. The Irish connections don't end there as professor also is also the spouse of Samantha Power, who worked as America’s ambassador to the United Nation under the Obama administration. A distinguished thinker, no doubt, but Sunstein’s brand of liberal assumptions appear flimsy in the face of the present crisis and Johnson should have known sooner. Writing about the need to avoid fear last month, Sunstein insisted that “most people in North America and Europe do not need to worry much about the risk of contracting the disease. That’s true even for people who are travelling to nations such as Italy that have seen outbreaks of the disease”.

Friend of mine who lives in London told me that he'd had the virus, picked it up nearly a month ago. Had a rough time, tried to get tested twice and they said no.
 

Leo

Well-known member
Had a sobering realization last week that I have a few of family members hundreds of miles away who I could conceivably never see again. two in their late 80s and one with a compromised immune system from current chemo treatments for breast cancer. too risky to travel there and potentially expose them to my germs, and none of them have computers or smartphones to even do FaceTime or Skype video calls. We've resigned ourselves to calling a few times a week. they are a stoic bunch who lived through the immediate aftermath of the depression as kids, not oblivious to what's happening but also never talk about being scared or depressed. maybe they are, maybe they're resigned to whatever fate has in store, hard to tell.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
That's a horrible realisation to (potentially) make... best of health and luck to them and you Leo - and all of you out there of course.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
"critical incident"at a hospital in Harrow due to a surge of patients with coronavirus, patients turned away from other hospitals. The point at which it's going to start going really crazy in the UK has just got here.

Fucking crazy that there's no lockdown.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
Certainly seems that the UK is at odds with every nearby country according to this map

MapThing.jpg

I can't vouch for the accuracy (I've seen some people disputing bits of it) and it seems to assume all countries escalate things in the same order which might cause issues... but presumably even as a broad brush it's got it roughly right.
 

version

Well-known member
The government are absolutely wrecking self-employed people. Apparently they're going to pay 80% of wages up to £2500 a month, but the self-employed have to go on Universal Credit which I hear is something like £95 a week...
 
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