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luka

Well-known member
I've gone through various stages of thinking/feeling on this, currently I'm moving towards the 'young Brits might avoid visiting Grandma, but they're not going to spend 6 months not going out to avoid the virus' stage.

There was 2.9 million people 80+ in the UK in 2011.

Many of the deaths from Corona were people who already had underlying health conditions. How many young people's lives should we destroy so that sickly people don't get claimed by this infection and live on a little while with relatively low quality of life?

I'll probably think something else in a hour. Maybe I just need to justify going to the gym.

Maybe Luka is avoiding posting to say something he might regret. Hope he's alright out there somewhere.

Hey look! It's got a sweet message in it! Thanks comelately!
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Yup, Im saying the opposite. Expertise is suddenly valuable again
publicly valuable

idk if more technocracy is something we should cheering for

(I'm obviously not saying we should be cheering for anti-intellectualism or willful ignorance either)
 

droid

Well-known member
publicly valuable

idk if more technocracy is something we should cheering for

(I'm obviously not saying we should be cheering for anti-intellectualism or willful ignorance either)

Sure. Climate is the thing though. I think I even saw an article in the spectator saying that maybe we should actually listen to experts before a crisis gets out of control.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
droid, it seems like you're basically saying "all this stuff has to happen during this crisis, and hopefully it will stick around after"

which is the positive flipside of "x amount of repressive measures have to happen during this crisis, hopefully they won't stick around after"

I think it's too early to call either side there

what I do know is this: definitely the West, and likely huge chunks of the rest of the world, will come out of this exhausted

governments almost certainly won't be able to stave domestic or global recession

I know what happened the last time an exhausted West emerged from a global crisis that gutted Europe. and that was during a huge economic boom.
 

IdleRich

IdleRich
If Trump saves us from the Depression everyone else was leading us into by reversing the country's course on this, I am going to build a statute to him in my front yard (paid for by my successful bets he has won for me).
Ok not what everyone is talking now but this is exactly what I was saying about Trump is letting the states shut down of their own accord so he can disown the economic effects - while claiming he got rid of the virus if it works.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Hard choices and sacrifices which, needless to say, always fall on the vulnerable.

The thing with this disease is that pretty much everyone is potentially vulnerable. True, some are more vulnerable than others, but in this country, right now, a previously fit and healthy 30-something nurse is on a ventilator.

It doesn't seem to affect kids that much (assuming they're not asthmatic or whatever), but what's going to happen to kids whose parents/carers get badly sick? Children are inherently vulnerable even at the best of times.

And many people who've recovered are showing signs of serious damage to their lungs and other organs.

People need to stop thinking "It's OK, I'm young-ish, no asthma, don't smoke, at worst I'll be laid up in bed for a couple of weeks with Lemsip and Netflix".
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
the only country that looks - so far - to do well out of this is China, which is great if you like authoritarianism and even more aggressive surveillance than we already have
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
I was thinking the other day, is it all plausible that the reduction in industrial activity, road transport and so on this year due to the pandemic might cause a measurable slowing of the rate of climate change? Because that really would be the nail in the coffin for AGW denial for all but the most hopelessly deluded.
 

baboon2004

Darned cockwombles.
the only country that looks - so far - to do well out of this is China, which is great if you like authoritarianism and even more aggressive surveillance than we already have

How will Russia fare? Domestically probably not well once the virus really hits, but geopolitically there might be a lot of opportunities to exert greater power in Europe at least
 

droid

Well-known member
droid, it seems like you're basically saying "all this stuff has to happen during this crisis, and hopefully it will stick around after"

which is the positive flipside of "x amount of repressive measures have to happen during this crisis, hopefully they won't stick around after"

I think it's too early to call either side there

what I do know is this: definitely the West, and likely huge chunks of the rest of the world, will come out of this exhausted

governments almost certainly won't be able to stave domestic or global recession

I know what happened the last time an exhausted West emerged from a global crisis that gutted Europe. and that was during a huge economic boom.

I agree, it's too early to say, and the outcomes will be uneven and very wildly.

I dunno how relevant the lessons from the 20th C are. We're in a very different place now. Too early to say how trump will fare, but in general I don't expect incumbents to do so well out of this. Bolsonaro will be lucky to get out of it alive, and Johnson ain't doing too well, so hard to see this being a boom for the current crop of right wingers.
 

luka

Well-known member
I was thinking the other day, is it all plausible that the reduction in industrial activity, road transport and so on this year due to the pandemic might cause a measurable slowing of the rate of climate change? Because that really would be the nail in the coffin for AGW denial for all but the most hopelessly deluded.

We were talking about this a lot on the after the lockdown thread. (I think it was that one. Hard when all the threads are about the virus)
 
I was thinking the other day, is it all plausible that the reduction in industrial activity, road transport and so on this year due to the pandemic might cause a measurable slowing of the rate of climate change? Because that really would be the nail in the coffin for AGW denial for all but the most hopelessly deluded.

And if there's a dramatic uptick in warming despite the reduction in CO2? Yes, I know, inertia in the system, similar decline in cloud cover due to nucleation, reduction in particulates, etc. But I think it would be dangerous or at least unwise to pin too much hope on this one.
 

droid

Well-known member
There will be a short term uptick in warming due to decline in aerosol cover, though the research is up in the air regarding the medium to long term effects.

What is clear, and what should be hammered home is that this is what your future will be like if we continue to ignore climate - except much worse. Imagine a pandemic in the midst of rolling food shortages, wildfires, heatwaves and hurricanes.

What this crisis will do, psychologically at least, is denude individual feelings of detachment, normality, the 'it won't happen here/to me' psychological shield that we all carry to some extent. Thats a good thing.
 

luka

Well-known member
That we're going to end up with an increased surveillance apparatus, a far right government and a bunch of tech bros coming up with ways to 'keep us safe' involving implants, digital IDs and whatnot.

Also corporate feudalism post the collapse of all small independent business.
 
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