Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)

[version]

Anyone noticed we've heard next to nothing from Russia?

 

[IdleRich]

They had to tell the people in the Big Brother house in Brazil the other day. They had no idea.

Actually we got a friend in Russia who was basically kidnapped by his family and forcibly put in rehab. He's supposed to be pretty much incommunicado for a year (we haven't even been able to find out what city he's in). Bet he doesn't know about it. Though Russia as a whole seems to be pretty relaxed about it so far from people we've spoken to.

 

[IdleRich]

Oh we both said the same... but basically Liza's family in Chelyabinsk have no idea it's so serious... think they are locking down to some extent in Moscow though. She got an aunt there.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

will you post it here too?

sure. I edited out some stuff specific to the company/business we're in, but otherwise word for word

Hey yall: my coronavirus PSA (I'm eventually going to post a similar one on my regular FB, so if you see basically the same thing there, that's why). Disclaimer, I'm obviously not a statistician or an epidemiologist, just a dude following news, like many of you. Some of yall are probably already aware of some/all of this and/or the overall gravity of the situation, but just so we're all on the same page. Further disclaimer: if most of this is news to you, please do not panic. Just be mentally prepared for what is likely coming.

1. If you have elderly - 60 and especially 70+ - family members/loved ones and you haven't already called them and told them to stay inside, please do so ASAP. Starting in about 10-14 days, American hospital (and specifically, ICU) capacity will almost certainly be overwhelmed and doctors will have to start triaging, as they have been in Italy. The U.S. has (somehow) less hospital beds per capita than Italy. All bets will be likely be off as to whether sick people can get timely treatment.

2. Expect all non-essential business to be closed by the beginning of next week if not sooner, very likely for 2+ months. This one is less certain b/c our govt is terrible, but its hand will likely be forced as the # of cases increases exponentially. Lockdown will last for a minimum of weeks, probably months. China was only able to to get a handle on things by completely locking everything down for the last 6+ weeks and completely gutting their economy in the process.

3. Once the dust settles, both the U.S. and the world will almost certainly be in a recession. The only question is how bad it will be. As far as us: some of our clients will likely close permanently (many business will be finished off by the combination of lockdown and recession). [SOME MORE STUFF RELATED SPECIFICALLY TO OUR COMPANY]

4. The physical risk to virtually all of us isn't non-existent, but it is quite low. However, I strongly suggest avoiding f2f contact with, again, elderly people in your life, as you may very well be asympomatically carrying the virus and expose them to it.

5. We should probably all support any legislation for some kind of temporary universal basic income, or mortgage/rent freezes, because as [nominal] independent contractors that's probably the only government action that will directly help us.

6. Don't panic. Mass panic will only make an already tense situation worse. Human society has survived vastly worse epidemics and other catastrophes. This is not the apocalypse. However, it is probably time to start thinking about medium-long term strategies for survival.

Best of luck to everyone.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

realistically, I think there's a strong chance things become worse than I laid out, and I didn't go into the grimmer details

but I was trying to find the sweet spot of preparing people as calmly as possible without totally freaking them out

if I did it over, I would more strongly stress individual social distancing, although our work makes that very difficult

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

the rationing of ventilators a la Italy looms on the horizon

as it's the U.S., existing policies on that vary state by state. obviously it's always going to be an excruciating decision.

see here for solidly written discussion of rationing in greater detail

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

I was trying to find the sweet spot of preparing people as calmly as possible without totally freaking them out

tbh I feel like this has been 80% of my waking hours the last 10 or so days

it's emotionally draining and we haven't even gotten to the beginning of the truly hard part yet

I think I have managed to impart the severity to some close friends, co-workers, and family members, at least

I wish that mattered more in the scheme of things. I guess it's something.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

it's not everyone by any means, but by and large the people I talk to are like a week or two behind where their perception of this should be

last week people were like OK it might be serious, over the weekend they realized this is going to disrupt daily life

in the last couple days they're at least beginning to understand the scope

a massive amount of the blame has to fall on the government at basically every level

lion's share to the Federal govt ofc, beginning and ending with Trump

but it's like they only started taking seriously a week ago

Chicago and most major cities still aren't in full quarantine; even the Bay Area's isn't that stringent if you look at it

obviously I 100% don't want martial law or excuses for authoritarian repression

the best way to avoid that is to lock it down all the way (without troops on the streets) right now

it's absolutely crazy and infuriating seeing how much non-essential stuff is still open and people are still out

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

I had the final stay inside, hospitals will be triaging talk with my mom yesterday

I didn't, gods help me, have the heart to go into the grimmest details about ventilator rationing

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

on a less important personal note, all gyms here closed indefinitely today at 8 PM

I know they should have closed weeks ago - like everything - but I will miss it hugely, as it's a huge part of my life

cry me a river, of course, compared to the bigger picture, but I will greatly miss the discipline, the routine, the people

was a real last chopper out of Saigon vibe, pretty surreal. it kind of symbolically marks the end of anything approaching normality for me.

was thinking that it might be the last time I'll ever see some people, not b/c death so much as not knowing how our lives will have changed by the time gyms reopen.

I bought kettlebells and between that, bodyweight stuff, some other odds and ends I have or can cobble together I reckon I'll get by

if can ferret out a barbell and bumper plates for a reasonable price I'll probably try to get as much of a powerlifting setup going as I can

 

[pattycakes_]

stay strong! (and post in that pd ph thread more!)

 

[baboon2004]

the rationing of ventilators a la Italy looms on the horizon

as it's the U.S., existing policies on that vary state by state. obviously it's always going to be an excruciating decision.

see here for solidly written discussion of rationing in greater detail

The variation of ICU beds per country is frigtening. While US has a very good 34 per 100,000, I'm guessing that it's super-complicated due to the healthcare system and the federal system? Germany has 29 per 100,000 and they're recording really low deaths compared to cases, can't think that's a coincidence.

UK is 6.6 - wtf. Considerably lower than any of the bigger W European countries, not sure about the others

Interestingly, Turkey has 46 per 100,000, so looks set to deal with this much better, although it has a low number of doctors, the other critical factor along with total bed capacity...as with Spain, the latter must involve seizure of private healthcare beds by any government that puts people above profit

 

[baboon2004]

Makes sense. The kettlebells I have will be a sanity saver over the coming weeks. Meditation too...need to have access to the most calm possible...

on a less important personal note, all gyms here closed indefinitely today at 8 PM

I know they should have closed weeks ago - like everything - but I will miss it hugely, as it's a huge part of my life

cry me a river, of course, compared to the bigger picture, but I will greatly miss the discipline, the routine, the people

was a real last chopper out of Saigon vibe, pretty surreal. it kind of symbolically marks the end of anything approaching normality for me.

was thinking that it might be the last time I'll ever see some people, not b/c death so much as not knowing how our lives will have changed by the time gyms reopen.

I bought kettlebells and between that, bodyweight stuff, some other odds and ends I have or can cobble together I reckon I'll get by

if can ferret out a barbell and bumper plates for a reasonable price I'll probably try to get as much of a powerlifting setup going as I can

 

[yyaldrin]

The variation of ICU beds per country is frigtening. While US has a very good 34 per 100,000, I'm guessing that it's super-complicated due to the healthcare system and the federal system? Germany has 29 per 100,000 and they're recording really low deaths compared to cases, can't think that's a coincidence.

UK is 6.6 - wtf. Considerably lower than any of the bigger W European countries, not sure about the others

Interestingly, Turkey has 46 per 100,000, so looks set to deal with this much better, although it has a low number of doctors, the other critical factor along with total bed capacity...as with Spain, the latter must involve seizure of private healthcare beds by any government that puts people above profit

the real bottleneck seems to be the amount of breathing ventilators though i think? they seem to be essential in surviving. beds can always be improvised i think. but yeh, agree there should be more beds anyway.

 

[baboon2004]

you mean overall beds, or ICU beds?

I think in general bed capacity is vital for proper treatment and so it doesn't become absolutely chaotic and more dangerous. Improvising beds will not go very far, hence for example why China built a new hospital/s. Look at Italy for the impact of lack of beds

ICu beds - i thought this was interconnected with ventilator numbers? but i admit i'm not sure. Also probelms with older ventilators not being good enough for this severity of condition

Also lack of proper gear for doctors of course; and in the UK this is particularly shameful, doctors being asked to support patients without the correct protective gear, AND no testing. Nuts. WHen it hits here - if this hasn't changed - then hospitals will be out of control, reinfection rates will be through the roof, staff casualties etc

 

[yyaldrin]

ah yes you are right.

 

[sufi]

sure. I edited out some stuff specific to the company/business we're in, but otherwise word for word

Thanks P! I had a lot of those type of conversations last week, if nothing else its a coping strategy to share the angst and help others cope with it/get out of denial. The scary bit is dealing with parents or elders who arent up for it, take care!

 

[Mr. Tea]

Also lack of proper gear for doctors of course; and in the UK this is particularly shameful, doctors being asked to support patients without the correct protective gear, AND no testing. Nuts. WHen it hits here - if this hasn't changed - then hospitals will be out of control, reinfection rates will be through the roof, staff casualties etc

Does anyone know if this phenomenon has been confirmed?

Last I heard is that patients who'd been thought to've been reinfected had actually failed to shake off their first does, which then caused a relapse of the disease. Whether or not you can be truly reinfected after fighting off the virus and ridding your body of it is going to be hugely important in how this turns out.

Of course the tricky thing about viruses is that they mutate extremely quickly, and it's quite possible that a person who's already had and recovered from a certain strain, and therefore developed immunity to it, will still be vulnerable to the next wave because it will have mutated sufficiently far from the earlier version that the existing immune response is useless. (AFAIK this is why most of us get a cold roughly once a year.)

 

[baboon2004]

No exact idea about reinfection tbh; what I probably should have said is that all patients in the hospital for things other than coronavirus are gonna get it if staff are not tested, which, every time I write it, looks more lunatic.

Mutation, definitely....the longer this goes on, the more complicated everything will become.

For doctors and frontliners, the mental health implications are incalculable too

 

[Corpsey]

Don't want to jump the gun on good news but I'm dying for it atm

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...-effective-in-treating-coronavirus-says-china

"Medical authorities in China have said a drug used in Japan to treat new strains of influenza appeared to be effective in coronavirus patients, Japanese media said on Wednesday.

Zhang Xinmin, an official at China’s science and technology ministry, said favipiravir, developed by a subsidiary of Fujifilm, had produced encouraging outcomes in clinical trials in Wuhan and Shenzhen involving 340 patients.

“It has a high degree of safety and is clearly effective in treatment,” Zhang told reporters on Tuesday.

Patients who were given the medicine in Shenzhen turned negative for the virus after a median of four days after becoming positive, compared with a median of 11 days for those who were not treated with the drug, public broadcaster NHK said."