Election 2020
luka
Well-known member
The Gypsy has spoken!
craner
Beast of Burden
Leo
Well-known member
that's it, game over.
Leo
Well-known member
genuinely believe it or just musing again?
IdleRich
IdleRich
BBC News | UK | Rare lobster stolen for BBQ
news.bbc.co.uk
constant escape
winter withered, warm
@IdleRich
"political pundit and GOP pollster, Frank Luntz, concluded on Friday that whilst Mr Trump could have persuaded some voters during the debate, it was now “impossible" for him to overcome Mr Biden’s poll lead before election day."
Just heard something, not sure where or how credible, about the polls themselves being weighted more heavily on the democratic side. You think there's anything to that?
"political pundit and GOP pollster, Frank Luntz, concluded on Friday that whilst Mr Trump could have persuaded some voters during the debate, it was now “impossible" for him to overcome Mr Biden’s poll lead before election day."
Just heard something, not sure where or how credible, about the polls themselves being weighted more heavily on the democratic side. You think there's anything to that?
IdleRich
IdleRich
It's very hard to know with polls isn't it? I read yesterday that polls are now adjusted to take account of the effect where even in anonymous polls people seem to be ashamed to admit they are voting Trump (in UK we call it the shy-tory effect). Of course though different polls use different methodology and sample sizes and so on, and that's before you count those of more dubious provenance which seek to influence how people will vote rather than truthfully reporting how they expect people will vote. Though there is still a question there - if you say x is ten points ahead of y does that gain votes for x from people who don't want to lose or does it mean that x voters become complacent and don't bother to vote?
One thing I will say, throughout my life, with big events involving large numbers of people - elections in short - polls have always been right, especially as they were taken closer and closer to the election... until a few years ago when they suddenly started being wrong all the time. What happened there?
One thing I will say, throughout my life, with big events involving large numbers of people - elections in short - polls have always been right, especially as they were taken closer and closer to the election... until a few years ago when they suddenly started being wrong all the time. What happened there?
constant escape
winter withered, warm
I haven't been cognizant of all this for very long, so I don't have much of a frame of reference. But I think the polls for Clinton/Trump actually began reflecting the upset, rather than the upset coming out of the blue despite the numbers.
Yeah I'm not sure, with regards to why the polls would be biased. Also your point about whether or not a lead will result in net positive or net negative feedback, not sure there as well.
Also haven't began learning about the electoral college, or what role that plays.
But if I were just to speculate, weighting the polls toward the democrats would keep people calmer, I think. I think there would be more of an across-the-board upset if Trump was appearing to win right now, with MAGA perhaps being incited in reaction to the incitement of the left. Just spitballing though.
Yeah I'm not sure, with regards to why the polls would be biased. Also your point about whether or not a lead will result in net positive or net negative feedback, not sure there as well.
Also haven't began learning about the electoral college, or what role that plays.
But if I were just to speculate, weighting the polls toward the democrats would keep people calmer, I think. I think there would be more of an across-the-board upset if Trump was appearing to win right now, with MAGA perhaps being incited in reaction to the incitement of the left. Just spitballing though.
IdleRich
IdleRich
As I remember it most polls still had Clinton winning - to the extent that it appeared an upset. Could be wrong, but that's my recollection. Maybe depends how far from the date.
I'm also thinking of brexit where all the polls had Remain winning - only by about one percent, but I think it was on a large sample so they felt confident. I was very worried at the time and so the final result was not a surprise to me in the way that it was (as I understand) to Germany or whatever where they were confident that the UK wouldn't be that dumb....
I certainly don't know how people can be certain enough about the effects to try and game the results by lying.
Of course it means that a plus x percent across the country is not the same as a win. But of course they're aware of that. The things that reassure me is when I hear how far behind Trump is in states that he needs to win.
I dunno. I'd say that there are various polling organisations... some at least need to be accurate to try and get more business...
Leo
Well-known member
LOL...that's a boatload of caveats right there! numerous key factors you admit not knowing about yet still willing to speculate of the topic, I like your approach.
constant escape
winter withered, warm
Yeah so long as the disclaimers are evident, I see little harm in tossing up such speculations.