Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)
- Thread starter hmg
- Start date
-
- Tags
- a grotesquely ugly freak ample cleavage bourgeois foodyism dunghill riddim fucking voodoo magic man jamaican voodoo gang from predator 2 linebaugh's balls ground into dust no no no no no no no no time is the true river that runs 'round hell wuhan ain't nuthing ta f' wit wuhan got you all in check
Before we continue, let's review the actual claim I made, backed up by evidence.
And the results of that study don't necessarily contradict this as people infected with omicron would be more likely to be vaccinated and/or having have had multiple courses of vaccination including boosters. And of course, the virulence of the strain isnt necessarily a predictor of long covid, nor unfortunately the severity of the case - there are almost certainly tens of thousands of people with long covid who had initial asymptomatic infections.
What I find most remarkable about your argument is that you are dismissing the significant effects of vaccines and are attempting to claim that covid isnt a problem any more because it has become intrinsically less severe - and in doing so you're quoting a study that says that 37% of people who are infected with omicron have had some form of long covid and that the absolute numbers of people with long covid is probably increasing because of the unmitigated spread of omicron.
I would hope I wouldn't have to point out the blatant contradiction there. Its doesn't back up your main claim that covid isnt an issue anymore. It demolishes it.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Vaccines? You mean the vaccines you said ceased to be worth anything after a few months?
You're still failing to see the wood for the trees, because whether the fact that people infected during the omicron-dominant phase are less likely to have long covid than those infected earlier on in the pandemic is due entirely to most people being vaccinated from mid-2021 onwards or because of an inherent difference in the virulence of the variants (although the latter seems more likely, because presumably the authors of that study you quoted would have said "Of course all this can be explained by the relative rates of vaccination in the three cohorts" if that were the case) makes no difference to what I've been saying, which is that getting covid now appears to be less of a big deal, for most people, than it was two or three years ago. And, again, if it is vaccines that are making the difference, then this rather weakens your claim that the whole population is now effectively unvaccinated because we haven't had booster after booster after booster ever since the initial vaccine roll-out in 2021.
Your point about the severity of acute symptoms is neither here nor there in the context of this paper, because they weren't quantifying that at all, but rather, the likelihood of having lasting symptoms three months after the infection, i.e. long covid.
hmg
Victory lap
And on the 30th anniversary of 36 chambers
lol, Im failing to see the wood for the trees? Thats your entire shtick! Youre literally saying covid is no big deal whilst quoting a study claiming an insanely high 37% rate of long covid.
And once again you're putting words in my mouth. This is precisely what i said in response to this argument - which you totally ignored in your usual fashion
But to go back and ask the questions you have failed to provide any kind of satisfactory answer to:
If covid is nothing to worry about, then why the staggering ongoing high levels of excess deaths - in the young especially. A rate unprecedented 'outside of war or famine' according to one actuary group?
Why the huge amounts of hospitalisations for normally benign illness?
Why the record number of people unable to work or the kids absent from school?
Why the massive jump in hospitalisation of (almost completely unvaccinated) children for covid from 22-23, the same period in which we removed all mitigations and omicron was allowed run rampant? How do you explain this?
You're a science guy, and the science is extremely clear on all this, it almost universally blames the ongoing and catastrophic effect covid has on the heart, the brain the immune system - pretty much every system in the human body. We can continue to ignore this ongoing car crash and hope that it all goes away or we can grow the fuck up and stop pretending its still 2019, because the longer we maintain this fantasy, the more likely we are to face some even more disastrous outcomes.
And once again you're putting words in my mouth. This is precisely what i said in response to this argument - which you totally ignored in your usual fashion
But to go back and ask the questions you have failed to provide any kind of satisfactory answer to:
If covid is nothing to worry about, then why the staggering ongoing high levels of excess deaths - in the young especially. A rate unprecedented 'outside of war or famine' according to one actuary group?
Why the huge amounts of hospitalisations for normally benign illness?
Why the record number of people unable to work or the kids absent from school?
Why the massive jump in hospitalisation of (almost completely unvaccinated) children for covid from 22-23, the same period in which we removed all mitigations and omicron was allowed run rampant? How do you explain this?
You're a science guy, and the science is extremely clear on all this, it almost universally blames the ongoing and catastrophic effect covid has on the heart, the brain the immune system - pretty much every system in the human body. We can continue to ignore this ongoing car crash and hope that it all goes away or we can grow the fuck up and stop pretending its still 2019, because the longer we maintain this fantasy, the more likely we are to face some even more disastrous outcomes.
mixed_biscuits
_________________________
I forgot, there is ongoing surveillance and there is no strong Covid signal: https://orchid.phc.ox.ac.uk/surveillance/clinical-informatics.
Murphy
cat malogen
Familiarise yourself with women, real women, not just jpegs
how would you have engulfed Liz Taylor to orgasm @mixed_biscuits ? Graphs?
how would you have engulfed Liz Taylor to orgasm @mixed_biscuits ? Graphs?
mixed_biscuits
_________________________
Well, if it works for me.
I'm two degrees of separation away from her.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
OK, so let's recap the last few pages.
You stated quite authoritatively that it was a total myth that omicron was any less virulent than the alpha and delta variants, then threw an infantile shit-fit and branded me Literally Worse Than Literally Hitler when I said that that's not what I'd read. You then firmly put me in me my place by posting a link to a paper that... *checks notes* disproved what you'd said and backed up what I'd said.
I then challenged you to explain why we weren't simply having a repeat of 2020, given that everything is ostensibly 'back to normal', and you make some vague noises about omicron becoming the dominant strain subsequent to the vaccine rollout - which is true, but contradicts what you'd said earlier about how anyone whose last vaccine or booster was more than six months ago (which is nearly everyone) is effectively unvaccinated.
I've just looked at the ONS data for the year to date, and while there was a blip in the death rate for England and Wales at the very start of the year and another in late spring, the rate's been pretty much bang on the 5-year average since the middle of the year, and has actually been slightly below the 5-year-average for October:
That doesn't look to me like "staggering ongoing high levels of excess deaths."
OK, so what do you propose to do about it? You've mentioned air filters in schools, which I agree would be great, but it appears we can't even build classrooms out of concrete that lasts longer than a decade without falling to bits, so I'm not going to hold my breath. Benny lives in a country that attempted to force small kids to wear masks, and says it wasn't a great success - there was, predictably, extremely poor compliance, and it caused various other problems.
You stated quite authoritatively that it was a total myth that omicron was any less virulent than the alpha and delta variants, then threw an infantile shit-fit and branded me Literally Worse Than Literally Hitler when I said that that's not what I'd read. You then firmly put me in me my place by posting a link to a paper that... *checks notes* disproved what you'd said and backed up what I'd said.
I then challenged you to explain why we weren't simply having a repeat of 2020, given that everything is ostensibly 'back to normal', and you make some vague noises about omicron becoming the dominant strain subsequent to the vaccine rollout - which is true, but contradicts what you'd said earlier about how anyone whose last vaccine or booster was more than six months ago (which is nearly everyone) is effectively unvaccinated.
I've just looked at the ONS data for the year to date, and while there was a blip in the death rate for England and Wales at the very start of the year and another in late spring, the rate's been pretty much bang on the 5-year average since the middle of the year, and has actually been slightly below the 5-year-average for October:
That doesn't look to me like "staggering ongoing high levels of excess deaths."
You're a science guy, and the science is extremely clear on all this, it almost universally blames the ongoing and catastrophic effect covid has on the heart, the brain the immune system - pretty much every system in the human body. We can continue to ignore this ongoing car crash and hope that it all goes away or we can grow the fuck up and stop pretending its still 2019, because the longer we maintain this fantasy, the more likely we are to face some even more disastrous outcomes.
OK, so what do you propose to do about it? You've mentioned air filters in schools, which I agree would be great, but it appears we can't even build classrooms out of concrete that lasts longer than a decade without falling to bits, so I'm not going to hold my breath. Benny lives in a country that attempted to force small kids to wear masks, and says it wasn't a great success - there was, predictably, extremely poor compliance, and it caused various other problems.
mixed_biscuits
_________________________
The 5-year average might be a problem here.
mixed_biscuits
_________________________
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
They've excluded 2020 and 2021, for obvious reasons.
Jesus H. Christ, have you lost your tiny mind? Try reading the graph you posted. It explicitly includes 2021 and 2022, which is why mortality is so low.
When you actually exclude those years of the pandemic its much worse, and ofc, we're supposed to be looking at post-omicron, here which includes 2023 and 2022:
From the start of the pandemic through to 29 September this year around 204 700 more deaths from all causes were registered than expected, the analysis shows. Of these deaths, 75 600 were in 2020, 56 500 in 2021, 39 400 in 2022, and 33 200 in the first three quarters of 2023, shows the analysis by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries’ continuous mortality investigation (CMI).1 The latest update covers week 39 of 2023 (the week to 29 September) and the third quarter of 2023, a period that had excess deaths but at a lower level than in the previous five quarters.
Veena Raleigh, a senior fellow at the health think tank the King’s Fund, told The BMJ that there had been large numbers of deaths related to flu and covid-19 in December 2022 and January this year, which was influencing the figures.5 “The 2023 figures to date do not compare well with 2019. Mortality to date is about 5.5% higher than it was for the same period in 2019,” she said.
“With 2023 to date, we haven’t had the bounce back that we might have expected once the worst of the pandemic was over. In the first three quarters of 2023 the mortality rate was higher than in many years in the pre-pandemic decade. If we have a good coming winter things could get back to 2019 levels relatively quickly, but it’s unpredictable.
“We need to remember that covid is still here and infections currently are picking up. Hopefully, we won’t see the sort of deaths we’ve seen before, but, that said, fewer people are getting vaccinated against covid.”
Covid-19: UK death rate is still higher than before pandemic
Overall mortality in the UK is still higher than it was before the covid-19 pandemic, despite a downward trend, a new analysis shows. From the start of the pandemic through to 29 September this year around 204 700 more deaths from all causes were registered than expected, the analysis shows. Of...
Last year in the UK there were nearly 40,000 excess deaths – that is, deaths above a five-year average. That’s nearly as many as were killed by the Luftwaffe in the blitz. In the last two weeks of 2022, deaths were a fifth higher than the average from 2016 to 2019 (the last pre-pandemic year), and that’s taking into account factors such as a bigger, ageing population.
More than 650,000 deaths were registered in the UK in 2022 - 9% more than 2019.
This represents one of the largest excess death levels outside the pandemic in 50 years.
Though far below peak pandemic levels, it has prompted questions about why more people are still dying than normal.
Excess deaths in 2022 among worst in 50 years
New figures show more than 650,000 people died in the UK last year.
www.bbc.com
And its not just in the UK. Canada:
Australia:
Ireland, Malta, Portugal, The Netherlands:
In August 2023, excess mortality continued to vary across the EU. Twelve EU Member States recorded no excess deaths. Among the fifteen EU Member States that recorded excess deaths, the highest rates were in Ireland (21.1%), Malta (16.9%), Portugal (12.7%) and the Netherlands (9.4%).
Excess mortality statistics - Statistics Explained
This article examines the evolution of the number of deaths that occurred each month in the European Union, compared with a 'baseline' of the average number of deaths for a particular month over the 4 years from 2016 to 2019.
ec.europa.eu
I could go on, but what's the point in continuing to discuss anything with someone who cant even read their own fucking graph?
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
As an aside, I'd just like to point out how funny it is that, despite (ostensibly) ignoring me, @WashYourHands is still hammering the 'haha' reaction button on any post where someone has disagreed with me, like a rat pressing a lever to gets its little dopamine fix, on account of still being butthurt over losing an argument back in March.
mixed_biscuits
_________________________
That Covid is behind the recent excesses is still to be shown.
Clinamenic
Binary & Tweed
He's vicariously emoji-clashing with you.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Droid's face when he realises I've made a simple mechanical slip and wrote "2020 and 2021" instead of "2020":
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
In this instance, the stopped clocked that is friend Biscuits happens to be telling the right time. I accept that there is still an underlying elevated death rate (even if it seems to have settled down from mid-2023 onwards); but it is purely an assertion on your part, @droid, that this is due exclusively to people dying from new covid infections.
First off, there are obviously airborne pathogens other than covid-19. You ludicrously tried slander me as being "pro-eugenics" when I pointed out that a large part of the excess could be due to an particularly bad flu season: your own post acknowledges this;
"Veena Raleigh, a senior fellow at the health think tank the King’s Fund, told The BMJ that there had been large numbers of deaths related to flu and covid-19 in December 2022 and January this year, which was influencing the figures"
This paper ("Influenza kills up to 25 000 people a year in England and Wales") is from the pre-pandemic era, but given that we may be routinely underestimating the death toll from ordinary flu, it strikes me as very likely that a big part of the current excess is that people who didn't fully recover from covid infections picked up during the two big waves in 2020-21 have been left especially vulnerable to flu and even the common cold (plus heart disease, liver disease, neurological conditions, and probably pretty much anything else you could name, because as you of course know, there isn't a single organ or system that SARS-COV-2 doesn't potentially attack).
There's also the health impact of two lengthy lockdowns, in which we were stupidly ordered to stay at home and only venture out when absolutely necessary, despite evidence very early on that the risk of transmission from meeting outside in small groups was extremely small. The spring of 2020 was one of the balmiest I can remember, so it would have been a perfect opportunity for people who were on furlough or WFH to take long walks, jog in the park, and meet up with friends for a coffee and an ice cream. Instead, we all sat on our arses in front of our TVs and laptops and got fat(ter), drunk(er), lonely(er) and sad(der). We also got on each other's nerves and there was an explosion in domestic abuse. There are quantifiable physical and mental health impacts from that that we still haven't recovered from, to say nothing of impact on children's psychological development and education.
In addition, as I think I've already said, the impact on the NHS was appalling, with the result that huge numbers of front-line staff became ill, either from catching covid themselves, or from stress and overwork. Staffing levels still haven't recovered, and we have record numbers of people waiting for operations. All of this is contributing to an indirectly, rather than directly, covid-boosted death rate. Plus, of course, ongoing economic misery - bad enough already thanks to 13 years of austerity and counting, wages which still haven't recovered from the 2008 crash, and then compounded by Brexit happening at the same time as large parts of the economy shutting down entirely, and now inflation at a 40-year-high, with the figure for food having recently hit nearly 20% - which does nothing good for anyone's longevity.
First off, there are obviously airborne pathogens other than covid-19. You ludicrously tried slander me as being "pro-eugenics" when I pointed out that a large part of the excess could be due to an particularly bad flu season: your own post acknowledges this;
"Veena Raleigh, a senior fellow at the health think tank the King’s Fund, told The BMJ that there had been large numbers of deaths related to flu and covid-19 in December 2022 and January this year, which was influencing the figures"
This paper ("Influenza kills up to 25 000 people a year in England and Wales") is from the pre-pandemic era, but given that we may be routinely underestimating the death toll from ordinary flu, it strikes me as very likely that a big part of the current excess is that people who didn't fully recover from covid infections picked up during the two big waves in 2020-21 have been left especially vulnerable to flu and even the common cold (plus heart disease, liver disease, neurological conditions, and probably pretty much anything else you could name, because as you of course know, there isn't a single organ or system that SARS-COV-2 doesn't potentially attack).
There's also the health impact of two lengthy lockdowns, in which we were stupidly ordered to stay at home and only venture out when absolutely necessary, despite evidence very early on that the risk of transmission from meeting outside in small groups was extremely small. The spring of 2020 was one of the balmiest I can remember, so it would have been a perfect opportunity for people who were on furlough or WFH to take long walks, jog in the park, and meet up with friends for a coffee and an ice cream. Instead, we all sat on our arses in front of our TVs and laptops and got fat(ter), drunk(er), lonely(er) and sad(der). We also got on each other's nerves and there was an explosion in domestic abuse. There are quantifiable physical and mental health impacts from that that we still haven't recovered from, to say nothing of impact on children's psychological development and education.
In addition, as I think I've already said, the impact on the NHS was appalling, with the result that huge numbers of front-line staff became ill, either from catching covid themselves, or from stress and overwork. Staffing levels still haven't recovered, and we have record numbers of people waiting for operations. All of this is contributing to an indirectly, rather than directly, covid-boosted death rate. Plus, of course, ongoing economic misery - bad enough already thanks to 13 years of austerity and counting, wages which still haven't recovered from the 2008 crash, and then compounded by Brexit happening at the same time as large parts of the economy shutting down entirely, and now inflation at a 40-year-high, with the figure for food having recently hit nearly 20% - which does nothing good for anyone's longevity.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
@droid, did you even read that Owen Jones article you posted here? Maybe you didn't, in which case I'll post a few selected highlights, which begin with the fucking title:
He's making exactly the same points I've made, and mentions other things too, such as ambulance and A&E waiting times, and the collapse of social care (something profoundly affecting my own family at the moment, as it happens). And he doesn't even touch on drug/booze deaths or suicide.
This is the second time in a few days that you've told me I'm wrong and a grotesquely ugly freak, and have then posted a link to a paper or article that precisely backs up what I'm saying.
He's making exactly the same points I've made, and mentions other things too, such as ambulance and A&E waiting times, and the collapse of social care (something profoundly affecting my own family at the moment, as it happens). And he doesn't even touch on drug/booze deaths or suicide.
This is the second time in a few days that you've told me I'm wrong and a grotesquely ugly freak, and have then posted a link to a paper or article that precisely backs up what I'm saying.