vimothy
yurp
Andrew Sullivan is very excited.
Iranian democracy
- Thread starter crackerjack
- Start date
Andrew Sullivan is very excited.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
I never know for certain if you're deadpanning it josef.
if there is a widespread general strike it's going to be real trouble for the regime.
Mousavi personally is walking a razor's edge. he won't be able to pull that off forever.
Obama will be forced to come out (on Sunday night maybe? or Monday) & make some kind of statement.
the longer this goes on the better the chance that some nervous Basij kid w/twitchy trigger finger will touch off a spark beyond anyone's control.
serious repercussions of some kind of Hizballah, Hamas, & I guess Syria. among others.
not sure of any of these except the last one & only cos it's so vague.
if there is a widespread general strike it's going to be real trouble for the regime.
Mousavi personally is walking a razor's edge. he won't be able to pull that off forever.
Obama will be forced to come out (on Sunday night maybe? or Monday) & make some kind of statement.
the longer this goes on the better the chance that some nervous Basij kid w/twitchy trigger finger will touch off a spark beyond anyone's control.
serious repercussions of some kind of Hizballah, Hamas, & I guess Syria. among others.
not sure of any of these except the last one & only cos it's so vague.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
calm down man, it's just tossing things out there.
I've never sure myself.
I think:
1) The fact that today doesn't seem to have a massacre may embolden the protesters further.
2) A lot of arrests are being made in Tehran tonight.
3) The regime has already lost a great deal of legitimacy.
4) Can Khamenei back track? I doubt it.
5) Cohen says that the police are wavering.
6) Arresting or killing Moussavi may widen splits and incite more rage.
7) The protesters are outgunned. They cannot take the State by force. It comes to force, the state will prevail, badly weakened.
8) How many people is the State willing to kill? Can they realistically crush this movement by force, with the State still surviving intact?
vimothy
yurp
It's very interesting to think of this from the perspective of the regime. They are trying to prevent a large mass of protesters gathering to challenge the security forces. But too much force will be a failure for the regime, who will lose legitimacy as a result when lack of legitimacy is plainly the cause of its problems.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
well your predictions are better I reckon
nah he can't, he really backed himself into a corner w/that speech yesterday. before that he had some freedom to maneuver but now any concessions are akin to admitting defeat (& weakness).
if it stands as it is now then yeah I think you're pretty spot on - the regime could crush this by force but only a serious cost. really depends if the police & especially the army refuses to shoot &/or comes over. that's who these things usually get decided - that's what did it in '79 yeah?
one thing I'd like to know, & which I haven't heard anything about - aside from Twitter rumors - is where the regular army stands. what is its relationship w/the IRGC like? w/Iranian society? has anyone heard what Ataollah Salehi's been up to?
nah he can't, he really backed himself into a corner w/that speech yesterday. before that he had some freedom to maneuver but now any concessions are akin to admitting defeat (& weakness).
if it stands as it is now then yeah I think you're pretty spot on - the regime could crush this by force but only a serious cost. really depends if the police & especially the army refuses to shoot &/or comes over. that's who these things usually get decided - that's what did it in '79 yeah?
one thing I'd like to know, & which I haven't heard anything about - aside from Twitter rumors - is where the regular army stands. what is its relationship w/the IRGC like? w/Iranian society? has anyone heard what Ataollah Salehi's been up to?
vimothy
yurp
The regime wins if everyone goes home. All (he says!) the protesters need to do is keep protesting. It's not a question of defeating the security forces.
And the longer this goes on for, the greater the stakes for the regime, because the confrontation is forcing Mousavi into conflict with Khamenei, not merely AN. So by escalating, the regime is creating an existential constitutional crisis for itself instead of containing it within the framework of the presidential vote (surely its purpose).
And the longer this goes on for, the greater the stakes for the regime, because the confrontation is forcing Mousavi into conflict with Khamenei, not merely AN. So by escalating, the regime is creating an existential constitutional crisis for itself instead of containing it within the framework of the presidential vote (surely its purpose).
The protesters need to retain a large-enough critical mass (they need to keep increasing in intensity, if not in numbers) in order to keep protesting. They need to keep the narrative moving. Stasis is death.
If this is true, then the protesters can only succeed by effecting a drastic curtailment of his power, if not his replacement. Which means that this is already an existential-constitutional crisis. The question is how much power the security forces are capable (or willing) to bring to bear in order to protect the state. The Assembly of Experts (the group with the power to unseat K.) has issued a strong message of support for him.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
I think these are both true. I dunno about "drastic" - certainly they have to reduce his power to the point where he can't just have them crushed as soon as they take the pressure off. so it's like a cycle of escalation - which the regime has now bought into, after initially trying to stay out of it.
re: the security forces/army/police - while it's not the only question surely it's the primary one & it looms over everything else. have to partially disagree w/Vim - the protesters don't have to defeat the security forces but they do have to neutralize them/their power, somehow. agree that they have to keep protesting, keep moving, w/"stasis is death". or stasis = the regime prevailing (in the short run at least) = death.
what the hell is the Artesh up to?
USMC Military Culture Guide on the Artesh, IRGC & Basij
vimothy
yurp
Good question though.
Searching for info, I come across a post at uskowi on Iran, from April 09, with the following comment:
And this: http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/060728_gulf_iran.pdf
Searching for info, I come across a post at uskowi on Iran, from April 09, with the following comment:
And this: http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/060728_gulf_iran.pdf
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Tehran hospitals ...
from FB.
Sofi Kar at 9:08pm June 20
Hospitals in Tehran are NOT safe. Basijis there, ppl disappearing. go to European embassies British (198 Ferdowsi Ave.), Portugese Embassy No.30, Nezami St., Abbas Pour St., Valy-e-Asr & Australian (No. 13, 23rd St.) embassies accepting Iranians injured in today's event Italian embassy French embassy plz everyone repeat this message every 10-15 minutes in ur facebooks, twitters,
from FB.
Sofi Kar at 9:08pm June 20
Hospitals in Tehran are NOT safe. Basijis there, ppl disappearing. go to European embassies British (198 Ferdowsi Ave.), Portugese Embassy No.30, Nezami St., Abbas Pour St., Valy-e-Asr & Australian (No. 13, 23rd St.) embassies accepting Iranians injured in today's event Italian embassy French embassy plz everyone repeat this message every 10-15 minutes in ur facebooks, twitters,