Vladimir Putin didn’t always rule his country alone. Now he does, and the dictator appears to care little about the consequences of his actions.
slate.com
This a pretty solid and interesting take I thought on why everyone was wrong about this invasion, and how it relates the nuances under the umbrella of "dictatorship"
Basically, Russia has transitioned from an autocratic but still "civilian-led" regime (there are still checks on the leader's power, even if they're not officially enshrined - think Erdogan) to a personal dictatorship (Stalin, Saddam, etc) which, no surprise, usually turn to be less rational, less predictable, as well as worse at war (bc dictator overrules generals). It turns out that "oligarchs" these days are not really what we think of, i.e. robber barons who amassed vast fortunes in the Wild West 90s - Putin has spent the last 20 years liquidating those guys as a class in order to consolidate his own power - but rather security officers running state companies whose wealth + power, unlike the original oligarchs, is dependent on Putin, and so they're much less likely to oppose him even with sanction.
Cheery stuff, an unchecked, potentially irrational and desperate old man surrounded by yes men, in charge of the largest nuclear arsenal in the world