Clinamenic

Binary & Tweed
thats why they say sanctions tend to help the targets stay in power and that there are no examples of sanctions achieinvg anything
But is there much of a history/precedent of such targeted sanctions of national leaders and corporate oligarchs? I'd assume there is some, but not enough to categorically dismiss this approach as ineffective.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape

This a pretty solid and interesting take I thought on why everyone was wrong about this invasion, and how it relates the nuances under the umbrella of "dictatorship"

Basically, Russia has transitioned from an autocratic but still "civilian-led" regime (there are still checks on the leader's power, even if they're not officially enshrined - think Erdogan) to a personal dictatorship (Stalin, Saddam, etc) which, no surprise, usually turn to be less rational, less predictable, as well as worse at war (bc dictator overrules generals). It turns out that "oligarchs" these days are not really what we think of, i.e. robber barons who amassed vast fortunes in the Wild West 90s - Putin has spent the last 20 years liquidating those guys as a class in order to consolidate his own power - but rather security officers running state companies whose wealth + power, unlike the original oligarchs, is dependent on Putin, and so they're much less likely to oppose him even with sanction.

Cheery stuff, an unchecked, potentially irrational and desperate old man surrounded by yes men, in charge of the largest nuclear arsenal in the world
 

yyaldrin

in je ogen waait de wind
speaking of which, it's stunning how rapid and total that's been. Certainly Russia is in the wrong, but seeing people on like, dating apps, who I guarantee have never thought about Ukraine before last week, having a #standwithukraine header, is, idk. Obv that's just how things are now - #stopasianhate, a French flag FB profile pic after the 2015 attack, etc, its just wild to see it applied to yunno, the potential start of WWIII. Can you imagine Twitter during WWII? #saynotonazis

But yeah just astounding - can you imagine being so globally unpopular that even the bespoke-tailored overlords of FIFA are like "hey bro, sorry, we can't afford to have you tarnish our international reputation"?
i wonder if this sort of "unity" could also turn into something dangerous, a lot of people seem really eager about picking up weapons, lots of talk about volunteers from european countries wanting to go to ukraine and whatabout countries ramping up their military budget? germany alone is investing an extra 100 milliard while people here are eating from trashcans.
 

Clinamenic

Binary & Tweed

This a pretty solid and interesting take I thought on why everyone was wrong about this invasion, and how it relates the nuances under the umbrella of "dictatorship"

Basically, Russia has transitioned from an autocratic but still "civilian-led" regime (there are still checks on the leader's power, even if they're not officially enshrined - think Erdogan) to a personal dictatorship (Stalin, Saddam, etc) which, no surprise, usually turn to be less rational, less predictable, as well as worse at war (bc dictator overrules generals). It turns out that "oligarchs" these days are not really what we think of, i.e. robber barons who amassed vast fortunes in the Wild West 90s - Putin has spent the last 20 years liquidating those guys as a class in order to consolidate his own power - but rather security officers running state companies whose wealth + power, unlike the original oligarchs, is dependent on Putin, and so they're much less likely to oppose him even with sanction.

Cheery stuff, an unchecked, potentially irrational and desperate old man surrounded by yes men, in charge of the largest nuclear arsenal in the world
Will check out that article, but I've also heard claims otherwise, namely that Putin's authority is tenuous, and that only a portion of his orders are actually carried out by would-be yesmen. I don't have any sources to cite here, though.

edit: I think I heard that from one of the Good Times Bad Times video essays released this week.
 

Clinamenic

Binary & Tweed
Will check out that article, but I've also heard arguments otherwise, namely that Putin's authority is tenuous, and that only a portion of his orders are actually carried out by would-be yesmen. I don't have any sources to cite here, though.
If this is true, and Putin is experiencing a slow-boiling crisis of authority, maybe the desperation this invasion reeks of makes more sense, as a reassertion of authority?
 

luka

Well-known member
Will check out that article, but I've also heard arguments otherwise, namely that Putin's authority is tenuous, and that only a portion of his orders are actually carried out by would-be yesmen. I don't have any sources to cite here, though.
as always you can beleive what ever takes your fancy. theres any number of options and all backed up by confident sounding essays online.
 

luka

Well-known member
craner says Putin will be replaced within a few days by people who just want the money to roll in. maybe try beleiving in that? a cheerful prognosis.
 

luka

Well-known member
Is this actually true? Has anyone noticed it, or does it just feel true now that this person's said it?
is the idea that everything in the world centrists dont like is created in secret russian laboratories and currently the russians are too busy killing ukrainians to wind up centrists?
 

droid

Well-known member
Cheery stuff, an unchecked, potentially irrational and desperate old man surrounded by yes men, in charge of the largest nuclear arsenal in the world

Good article, and all very plausible, OTOH, maybe Putin has just perfected madman theory.

I call it the Madman Theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I've reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We'll just slip the word to them that, "for God's sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about communism. We can't restrain him when he's angry—and he has his hand on the nuclear button" and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace.
 

DannyL

Wild Horses
Is this actually true? Has anyone noticed it, or does it just feel true now that this person's said it?
Lots of people in her replies saying it's true. I would go as far as to say there must be something in it. Twitter has I think literally cut off links so they've disappeared.

You also have RT hacks resigning, but what's really delighting me is the way Syria propagandists and conspiracy wankers are being left out in the cold after being discarded. Hopefully their careers will be ruined and they'll eventually be dragged through the streets behind trucks.
 

...

Beast of Burden
Is this actually true? Has anyone noticed it, or does it just feel true now that this person's said it?

I was was thinking this yesterday, so I'm not saying it's true, but I noticed it before I read that. Therefore it might be true.
 
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