vimothy

yurp
we can theorize about this. the us decides to invade Iraq for essentially no reason. why? how? bc it can. but that ability is not absolute. its contingent.
 

droid

Well-known member
It's absurd to suppose that a nuclear conflict will come as a result of Putin pressing a big red button in a fit of tyrannical rage, it will most likely be the end result of a series of escalations that spiral out of control, like in pretty much every conflict that ever happened. An errant missile hitting Warsaw, a major terrorist attack in Moscow, a fighter jet collision over the Baltic sea. There are a disturbing number of plausible scenarios that could lead to a launch. The BBC wargamed this exact process in 2016.

 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
again, its directly analogous. the us would not countenance this, why expect russia to accept it with no quarrels?
"Accept" what? For the Nth time, Ukraine isn't in NATO, nor was NATO membership even remotely in the pipeline. It has no NATO bases, and wasn't about to acquire any. This is a completely idiotic argument. It's like shooting dead a random, unarmed person in the street "just in case" they were on their way to get a gun to threaten you with.
 

DannyL

Wild Horses
It's absurd to suppose that a nuclear conflict will come as a result of Putin pressing a big red button in a fit of tyrannical rage, it will most likely be the end result of a series of escalations that spiral out of control, like in pretty much every conflict that ever happened. An errant missile hitting Warsaw, a major terrorist attack in Moscow, a fighter jet collision over the Baltic sea. There are a disturbing number of plausible scenarios that could lead to a launch. The BBC wargamed this exact process in 2016.


The US has taken some steps to avoid escalation, believe it or not i.e. limiting the range of missiles given to Ukraine so they can't strike within Russian borders. I imagine that's a calculus that changes week by week .
 

hmg

Victory lap
Russia is the classic crybully, "just look what you made me do." Nothing that comes out of the Kremlin makes sense, "we feel threatened and surrounded" in the same breath as "look at our mighty thermonuclear arsenal, the greatest in the world, tremble in awe."
 

vimothy

yurp
"Accept" what? For the Nth time, Ukraine isn't in NATO, nor was NATO membership even remotely in the pipeline. It has no NATO bases, and wasn't about to acquire any. This is a completely idiotic argument. It's like shooting dead a random, unarmed person in the street "just in case" they were on their way to get a gun to threaten you with.
 

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vimothy

yurp
from a russian POV, whether Ukraine is within the nato alliance is highly salient strategically - that's evident from their invasion. control of the north European plain is threatening to russia. its obvs quite similar to the prospect of russian bases in Ireland or scotland. they dont have to be threats, but if you wanted to threaten, they'd be highly useful
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Ukraine expressing a wish to join NATO is a very, very far cry from Ukraine actually joining NATO. And their membership of the EU had already been kiboshed by France and Germany.

Moreover, why do you think countries bordering Russia might want to join NATO? You've gone out of your way to understand things from the POV of Russia's national interest, but what about Ukraine's national interest?
 

DannyL

Wild Horses
Bit more on this from Konstantin Kisin, discussing Putin's speech back in Ocotber.

I wish every single person in the West would listen to Putin's speech. Obviously, that won't happen, so let me summarise as a professional translator with 10+ years’ experience. He states, as he has done from the outset, what his intentions and complaints are in the plainest terms possible.
Setting aside his brief comments on the recent "referendums", he spent most of his speech discussing the West. His primary complaint isn't NATO expansion, which gets only a cursory mention. Instead, he claims the West is greedy and seeks to enslave and colonise other nations, like Russia.
The West uses the power of finance and technology to enforce its will on other nations. To collect what he calls the "hegemon's tax". To this end the West destabilises countries, creates terrorist enclaves and most of all seeks to deprive other countries of sovereignty.
It is this "avarice" and desire to preserve its power that is the reason for the "hybrid war" the collective West is "waging on Russia". They want Russia to be a "colony". They do not want us to be free, they want Russians to be a mob of soulless slaves - direct quote.
The rules-based order the West goes on about is "nonsense". Who made these rules? Who agreed to them? Russia is an ancient country and civilization and we will not play by these "rigged" rules. The West has no moral authority to challenge the referendums because it has violated the borders of other countries. Western elites are "totalitarian, despotic and apartheidistic" - direct quote.
They are racist against Russia and other countries and nations. "Russophobia is racism". They discriminate by calling themselves the "civilised world". They colonised, started the global slave trade, genocided native Americans, pillaged India and Africa, forced China to buy opium through war. We, on the other hand, are proud that we "led" the anti-colonial movement that helped countries develop to reduce poverty and inequality.
They are Russophobic (they hate us) because we didn't allow our country to be pillaged by creating a strong CENTRALISED (emphasis his) state based on Christianity, Islam, Judaism and Buddhism. They have been trying to destabilise our country since the 17th century in the Times of Trouble. Eventually, they managed to "get their hands on our riches" at the end of the 20th century. They called us friends and partners while extracting trillions of dollars (his irony game is strong today).
We remember this. We didn't forget. The West claims to bring freedom and democracy to other countries but it's the exact opposite of the truth. The unipolar world is anti-democratic by its very nature. It is a lie. They used nuclear weapons, creating a precedent. They flattened German cities without "any military need to do so". There was no need for this except to scare us and the rest of the world. Korea, Vietnam. To this day they "occupy" Japan, South Korea and Germany and other countries while cynically calling them "allies".
The West has surveillance over the leaders of these nations who "swallow these insults like the slaves they are".
He then talks about bioweapon research (haven't heard about them for a while) and human experiments "including in Ukraine".
The US rules the world by the power of the fist. Any country which seeks to challenge Western hegemony becomes an enemy. Their neo-colonialism is cloaked in lies like "containment" of Russia, China and Iran. The concept of truth has been destroyed with fakes and extreme propaganda (irony game still strong).
You cannot feed your people with printed dollars and social media. You need food and energy. But Western elites have no desire to find a solution to the food and energy crises THEY (emphasis his) created.
They solved the problems at the start of the 20th century with WW1 and the US established dominance of the world via the dollar as a result of WW2. In the 80s, they had another crisis they solved by "plundering our country". Now they want to solve their problems by "breaking Russia".
Russia "understands its responsibility to the international community" and will "do everything to cool the heads of these neo-colonials who are destined to fail".
They're crazy. I want to speak to all Russian citizens … do we want to replace mum and dad with parent 1 and 2? They invented genders and claim you can "transition". Do we want this for our children?
We have a different vision.
They have abandoned religion and embraced Satanism – again, this is a direct quote.
The world is going through a revolutionary transformation. A multi-polar world offers nations freedom to develop as they wish and they make up the majority of the world.
We have many like-minded friends in Western countries. We see and appreciate their support. They are forming liberation, anti-colonial movements as we speak - direct quote. These will only grow.
We are fighting for a fair world for our country. The idea of exceptionalism is criminal and we must turn this shameful page. The breaking of the West's hegemony is INEVITABLE (emphasis his).
There’s no going back. We are fighting for our "great (as in big), historic Russia". Our values are (irony game crescendo): love of our fellow man, compassion and mercy.
Truth is with us, Russia is with us.
That's the end of the speech. As I’ve said from Day 1, the purpose of what Putin is doing in Ukraine is to throw the West off its pedestal. This isn't about NATO or Ukraine, this is the big play to replace the current world order. It’s better the West accepts this fact and realises what the stakes are.”

https://www.facebook.com/photo/?fbi...oGC3yfeZ7hXVZeP65CSsUhu6kYozZbd3w&__tn__=EH-R
 

vimothy

yurp
Ukraine expressing a wish to join NATO is a very, very far cry from Ukraine actually joining NATO. And their membership of the EU had already been kiboshed by France and Germany.
but they're clearly quite closely connected. and it's also clear from russian statements that this is a pressing matter for them
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
but they're clearly quite closely connected. and it's also clear from russian statements that this is a pressing matter for them
So what do you make of the unambiguously imperialistic rhetoric, references to Ukraine as 'little Russia', invocation of Peter the Great, and so on?

I mean, how explicit do they have to make it before you're prepared to recognise that imperialism for its own sake is playing a pretty big part here?
 

vimothy

yurp
just play risk from russias POV. its obvs that their position is deteriorating. hence the need to do something drastic. ppl have been predicting this for many years.
 

DannyL

Wild Horses
So what do you make of the unambiguously imperialistic rhetoric, references to Ukraine as 'little Russia', invocation of Peter the Great, and so on?

I mean, how explicit do they have to make it before you're prepared to recognise that imperialism for its own sake is playing a pretty big part here?
Vim, try reading a bit about longstanding Russian attitudes towards Ukraine, its reality as country, its right to exist and so on. The invasion is a deeply imperialist project resting on exactly the attitudes you'd expect that support this.
 
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