Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
Medical Aid for Palestinians is a perennial good cause, and none more so than at the moment, so I've set up wunna them birthday fundraiser things - should be viewable to anyone:

edit: /d/ code is doing weird things to the link, so here it is in broken-up form. https:// www. facebook.com/donate/982711869486890/
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Its possible there was some element within Israeli intelligence that wanted to exploit an opportunity, god knows there's no shortage of genocidal elements in the military, but everything about this runs counter to everything Israel has been trying to do for decades. Nobody gives a fuck about the Palestinians, the peace process is long dead, they had normalised relations with most arab states, Iran was effectively contained, and there was virtually no significant global resistance to their strategy. There is no way in hell that Netanyahu would willingly place all of that in the hands of the fates, certainly not at the probable cost of his own political survival. If you hold all the cards in a poker game, are you really going to upend the table in the hope of snatching the pot in the chaos?
yeah the idea that the Israeli govt would sacrifice ~1500 Israelis (plus impending war casualties), severely damage the air of invincibility it cultivates as part of deterrence, initiate a massive callup, start a multifront war that might drag in Iran, and virtually ensure its own downfall in order to annex half of Gaza makes about as much sense as 9/11 truth claims. I would not be surprised at all they ignored warnings from Egypt or whoever else. as with the intelligence failures iof 9/11, don't attribute to malice that which can be explained by incompetence. they got complacent and Hamas leadership took advantage of it.

the heads of Shin Bet and Israeli military have both publicly apologized btw. Presumably Netanyahu will be throwing people under the bus as fast as he can in an attempt to survive politically.
 

Mr. Tea

Let's Talk About Ceps
the heads of Shin Bet and Israeli military have both publicly apologized btw. Presumably Netanyahu will be throwing people under the bus as fast as he can in an attempt to survive politically.

Well he's got that Trump/Putin survivor's instinct, hasn't he? Nobody is too important to be sacrificed if it might even slightly increase the big man's chances of hanging onto power.

He's of publicly rubbished Egypt's claim about the ignored warning, of course, although I don't know widely that will be believed now the Americans have confirmed it.
 

DannyL

Wild Horses
Seeing lot of online denial also. "Can you prove it was Israel?", "What if it was Hamas?" etc etc. Bending over backwards to deny Israel is doing what it's doing and has done for a long time.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
i'm starting to believe israel won't go into gaza
I have been wondering that myself but they're so publicly committed to destroying Hamas that it's very difficult to see them backing off. They haven't demobilized any of the 300k reservists. They've made an effort, however half-hearted, to clear people out of the battlespace.

I would guess the delay is primarily the hostages but that isn't going to magically resolve itself and their window to act isn't indefinite so if they're going they have to go at some point here.
 

hmg

Victory lap
Seeing lot of online denial also. "Can you prove it was Israel?", "What if it was Hamas?" etc etc. Bending over backwards to deny Israel is doing what it's doing and has done for a long time.
Well, there's footage of a ground launched rocket arcing back towards the area it was launched from, so it's not impossible.
 

hmg

Victory lap
I have been wondering that myself but they're so publicly committed to destroying Hamas that it's very difficult to see them backing off. They haven't demobilized any of the 300k reservists. They've made an effort, however half-hearted, to clear people out of the battlespace.

I would guess the delay is primarily the hostages but that isn't going to magically resolve itself and their window to act isn't indefinite so if they're going they have to go at some point here.
Hezbollah would invade from the North, they've said as much and Israel doesn't have the resources to handle both with the overwhelming force they think they'll need for either.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Seeing lot of online denial also. "Can you prove it was Israel?", "What if it was Hamas?" etc etc. Bending over backwards to deny Israel is doing what it's doing and has done for a long time.
In any conflict it's good to blanket assume fog of war for any incident until evidence firms up. I'm sure a lot of that is bad faith, but you can reasonably say you're not sure about something happened hours ago. Could well have been an Israeli strike, ofc.
 

padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Hezbollah would invade from the North, they've said as much and Israel doesn't have the resources to handle both with the overwhelming force they think they'll need for either.
This I don't buy for a second. A Hezbollah invasion is not a serious existential threat. It's proved that it's very good at defending prepared positions on its own turf, but invasion and maneuver warfare etc? With its handful of old Soviet tanks and total lack of an air force? Come on. Hezbollah coming out en masse into the open would be a gift for the Israelis.

Idk if the IDF has enough for two simultaneous major invasions, but I'm confident it has enough to hold Hezbollah while it goes into Gaza and then shift focus. If Iran wants to get directly involved, that's exactly the message the U.S. carrier groups are there to send. Ofc if that happens and there's a general regional war all bets are off anyway.
 

droid

Well-known member
In any conflict it's good to blanket assume fog of war for any incident until evidence firms up. I'm sure a lot of that is bad faith, but you can reasonably say you're not sure about something happened hours ago. Could well have been an Israeli strike, ofc.
Given the long history here, literally thousands of examples of Israeli atrocities followed by obfuscation and denial, and then eventual disclosure, plus the fact that no Hamas rocket is capable of such destruction, I think we can assume it was an Israeli strike unless convincing evidence emerges to say otherwise.
 

droid

Well-known member
I read 500 but still, fucking hell.
Yeah, I was going by initial reports. An airstrike on a Christian hospital in a so-called safe zone, coming after several hospital and ambulance strikes in the last fews days. Things kicking off now in Jenin, Ramallah and Tunis.
 

droid

Well-known member
Quite the press conference

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padraig (u.s.)

a monkey that will go ape
Given the long history here, literally thousands of examples of Israeli atrocities followed by obfuscation and denial, and then eventual disclosure, plus the fact that no Hamas rocket is capable of such destruction, I think we can assume it was an Israeli strike unless convincing evidence emerges to say otherwise.
This is where we, due respect, have to disagree

Going on precedence, I agree it's significantly more likely to be an IDF fuckup that they're disavowing than a Hamas or PIJ fuckup (let alone false flag).

I'm arguing for a general principle of applying a fog of war standard for any conflict when a major event occurs, especially such an emotionally charged one. Not for years but yunno, you don't have to declare with certainty an hour after something happens. Especially in a time when there are oceans of misinformed everywhere.
 
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