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Well the IDF has issued a completely impossible order for 1.1 mn Palestinians to evacuate northern Gaza in 24 hours, presumably heralding - at least - a major ground operation. There's no electricity, hospitals are running out of basically everything, and people are going to start starving at...

things do have a habit of escalating sure, but I find it unlikely. the world ain't multipolar yet, especially that close to that many American bases. if there was a war already then I agree an inviting target but to start a war? no. madness.

from what I saw that was initiated by PIJ border raid and Hezbollah has been caught in the tit for tat and responded rather than initiating on their own idk they have their own domestic problems it seems like? Lebanon is kind of a mess plus idk if they're clamoring to be associated with...

Iran is a sidetrack rn anyway tbh. won't be if it does actually lead to Israeli strikes on Iran ofc (which I still find v unlikely). what is actually happening rn I mean jfc, a "complete siege" of Gaza and gearing up for potentially a massive ground invasion. I've had the bad feeling all...

well fair enough, you're more up to date on that than I am it's true that preventing normalization is a Hamas goal that happens to dovetail with Iran's

also Israeli govt has obv never wanted its own war with Iran - how would that even work? it's wanted the U.S. to start a war with Iran. Osirak type strike is impossible bc of dispersal of Iranian nuclear program as always who knows, but U.S. jumping into a hot war with Iran would be even more...

boils down to the basics for me. means and motive. Iranian regime is Hamas's primary backer (if not them, who else) and they have a mutual goal of upsetting normalization doesn't have to be a direct order from the head of Quds Force to be a huge ROI for years of investment in Hamas I think...

they could also think they're correct and be wrong. the point is just that there are multiple reasons why a Western media outlet might announce that before official Israeli sources.

a good rule of thumb in any military conflict, especially at the beginning, is to assume fog of war and take everything with a grain of salt Western media outlets might ideological reasons for that claim, or they might just want to generate clicks, or both ]Israel is also in a delicate spot...

I mean, the Iranian regime has been supporting Hamas and using it as a proxy for 15+ years that's not disputed by anyone, it's not even secret really this attack probably advances Iranian regime goals, some of which tbf dovetail w/Hamas goals I don't think top Hamas and Iranian officials sat...

if anyone still remembers the Chechen Wars, attacks like this actually happened quite often, 2-3 times a year for several years most famously the Moscow theater attack (whence the opening scene of Tenet) and the Beslan school siege Beslan was particularly gruesome, almost 200 children killed...

so unlikely that it's hard to imagine but it would be a death knell for large-scale Western support Zelenskyy would be the first and most vigorous to condemn it even Russian govt knows it can't get away with this kind of thing. murdering civilians in secret and bombing them in cities, yes...

that sounds like imported Trumpism, which isn't surprising I meant the homegrown variety. the settler fanatics, ultranationalists, Haredi parties (without which no Likud govt ever would've been able to take power), etc. there is a particular kind of craziness from the blend of...

oh boy. since this seems like a genuine question, I'll answer it. first off the answer is, they do. all of the major refugee camps outside Gaza/WB are in Lebanon, Jordan, and Syria. as tea said, they make up 10% of the population of Lebanon. They're more than 1/6 the population of Jordan...

they have kids because of their religious beliefs, not some tradbro fixation on birth rates please learn a single thing about Jewish people before you continue talking about them. like a single thing.

how can they leave, if they wanted to? Israel (and Egypt) make Gaza one of the most difficult places on Earth to travel to and from and with what $ should relocate and restart? the unemployment rate in Gaza is nearly 50% and right now it's impossible to leave Netanyahu has, Kafkaesque...

yes, clearly the reason that there aren't more Arab democracies is that their citizens aren't trying hard enough definitely not the endless string of (usually foreign-backed) brutal repression, military coups, foreign military interventions, proxy civil wars, etc I'm sure if Syrians...

I think a lot of non-Israelis fail to grasp how internally divided Israel is and how even more than in most countries its domestic politics very largely determine its foreign policy, how unstable those domestic politics are, how fucking deranged the Israeli right-wing is, etc

btw I wasn't sure I was going to mention this, but I have three half-brothers (my dad has lived there since 1988, remarried, new family, etc) who've been called up as reservists. two in the south by Gaza, one up north. so I'd be talking about it either way. tho so would plenty of people...

the surprise would be if they didn't try to learn and improve from conflict to conflict I'd assume longitudinal studies have been done on the improvement of irregular forces over time in long-term asymmetric warfare, which seems inevitable as their survival depends on it, both as a group and...