Russia Surrounded

[vimothy]

so do we agree that the opposition in the us to the invasion of iraq and Afghanistan was not great? but you dont view them as belonging to a different IR category - states that cant be analysed rationally or negotiated with

 

[Mr. Tea]

but the point is that, within recent memory, the US felt threatened, and then it went and invaded a bunch of other countries in response, aided by an array of western allies. so it's simply false to say that we're above all this stuff whereas the russians are prehistoric barbarians and cant be reasoned with

There remains a difference between ousting a regime and simply stealing a country.

 

[Mr. Tea]

so do we agree that the opposition in the us to the invasion of iraq and Afghanistan was not great?

15 February 2003 anti-war protests - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

On 15 February 2003, a coordinated day of protests was held across the world in which people in more than 600 cities expressed opposition to the imminent Iraq War. It was part of a series of protests and political events that had begun in 2002 and continued as the invasion, war, and occupation took place. The day was described by social movement researchers as "the largest protest event in human history".

 

[vimothy]

yes but in the us, like Russia today, there was not much opposition. which doesnt mean they belong in a different category of international relations

 

[Mr. Tea]

states that cant be analysed rationally or negotiated with

Weasel words there, vim, I think. Danny is saying that politics in Russia is different from politics here or in the US - which strikes me as a reasonable proposition - not that Russians are inherently evil or insane. And the question of whether they - which isn't really a 'they' at all, but a 'he' - can be negotiated and then relied on to keep any promises made, is a separate issue.

 

[droid]

Polling shows that American support for Iraq in 2003 was 60-70% Support for the war in Afghanistan was about 90%. In Nov 2022, 60% of russians supported the war in Ukraine in internal state polling.

After nine months of war in Ukraine, fewer and fewer Russians believe Putin did the right thing by starting the conflict — 60% as of Nov. 17. This is still a majority, but it’s at its lowest level in six months and has dropped 10 percentage points since spring.

What Secret Russian State Polling Tells Us About Support for the War - The Moscow Times

Opinion | Do Russians support the war in Ukraine?

www.themoscowtimes.com

 

[vimothy]

There remains a difference between ousting a regime and simply stealing a country.

and what is that difference? the us invaded two countries and set up client states in both places, which later failed. I dont think that's massively different from what's happening here

 

[Mr. Tea]

yes but in the us, like Russia today, there was not much opposition. which doesnt mean they belong in a different category of international relations

Well what do you mean by 'opposition', exactly? Yes, both main parties voted in favour of the UK's participation in the invasion, if that's what you mean. But there was massive opposition from a very large part of the public.

 

[vimothy]

Weasel words there, vim, I think. Danny is saying that politics in Russia is different from politics here or in the US - which strikes me as a reasonable proposition - not that Russians are inherently evil or insane. And the question of whether they - which isn't really a 'they' at all, but a 'he' - can be negotiated and then relied on to keep any promises made, is a separate issue.

I think it's the same issue. can you analyse russian actions using the same frame you would use to analyse us actions wrt iraq or Afghanistan?

 

[vimothy]

and btw, I dont disagree necessarily that russian politics is different or even unique, but there are clearly many similarities. let's not fall into the trap of demonising russia

 

[Mr. Tea]

and what is that difference? the us invaded two countries and set up client states in both places, which later failed. I dont think that's massively different from what's happening here

This equation would work if the Americans had begun settling Iraq with huge numbers of their own people while depopulating the country by mass deportations, banning Islam and Arabic, forcibly converting Iraqis to Christianity and making them exclusively use English, etc.

 

[Mr. Tea]

and btw, I dont disagree necessarily that russian politics is different or even unique, but there are clearly many similarities. let's not fall into the trap of demonising russia

Droid could quite happily demonize America until the heat death of the universe, but I don't see you asking him not to do so.

 

[vimothy]

so, another words, if russia respected these norms, then you would view its invasion of Ukraine in a similar manor?

 

[shakahislop]

if you're saying that there were huge protests in the us against the invasion of Afghanistan then I'll take your word for it, I have no idea. but it was certainly not apparent from the other side of the atlantic at the time. similarly, from my perspective, russia seems fairly unified behind the invasion of Ukraine, and getting more unified over time (the dynamic of war, of escalation, which holds for the west in this conflict too), but that doesnt mean that I'm moving them into a separate category of alien peoples who cant be reasoned with or understood in rational terms.

for Afghanistan there weren't much opposition. they had started the war by October 2001, and there wasn't (so far as I know) much public resistance in any of the NATO countries that participated in the invasion, even in countries like Germany which are less prone to getting involved in these conflicts. everyone around the world rallied around the US principally out of sympathy and shock, and to a much lesser extent as a result of a concern for afghan women and the broader plight of afghan people

 

[vimothy]

Droid could quite happily demonize America until the heat death of the universe, but I don't see you asking him not to do so.

I think droid is on point here, the idea of a "rules-based," order is totally false and that's evident and inarguable

 

[vimothy]

for Afghanistan there weren't much opposition. they had started the war by October 2001, and there wasn't (so far as I know) much public resistance in any of the NATO countries that participated in the invasion, even in countries like Germany which are less prone to getting involved in these conflicts. everyone around the world rallied around the US principally out of sympathy and shock, and to a much lesser extent as a result of a concern for afghan women and the broader plight of afghan people

sure, but I don't think that detracts from my main point, which is that Russia can be understood in a similar way to the us

 

[Mr. Tea]

I think it's the same issue. can you analyse russian actions using the same frame you would use to analyse us actions wrt iraq or Afghanistan?

I don't think you can, because the US doesn't regard Iraqis and Afghans as 'little Americans' in the same way Russian nationalists regard Ukrainians.

A missing piece is your analysis is that, if Putin is more or less doing what GWB did 20 years ago, then we are required to think of Zelenskyy in terms of Saddam or Mullah Omar, which is absurd. The vast majority of Ukrainians are in favour of fighting off the Russians until they're repelled to the border; Iraqis celebrated when the Americans first arrived, as it meant the end of the regime that had brutalized them for decades.

 

[vimothy]

everything doesn't have to line up exactly

 

[vimothy]

the question is whether Russia is a rational actor

 

[Mr. Tea]

for Afghanistan there weren't much opposition. they had started the war by October 2001, and there wasn't (so far as I know) much public resistance in any of the NATO countries that participated in the invasion, even in countries like Germany which are less prone to getting involved in these conflicts. everyone around the world rallied around the US principally out of sympathy and shock, and to a much lesser extent as a result of a concern for afghan women and the broader plight of afghan people

Well for one thing, OBL was actually holed up in Afghanistan, at least at the time, while a lot of people either knew right away that the claims about AQ and Saddam were bullshit, or fairly quickly came to that conclusion.