Oceania vs. Eurasia
Washington has since attempted to drive a permanent wedge between Berlin and Moscow through additional escalation to prevent the formation of a grand Eurasian alliance, while Berlin has sought to embrace Moscow to death and crush it to the periphery as part of a strategy of change through economic rapprochement. The descending empire in Washington sees China and a Eurasian alliance (keyword: New Silk Road) as the main threat to its eroding hegemony. The US intervention in Kiev is therefore about consolidating its own "oceanic" alliance, which extends as far as possible across the Atlantic and the Pacific and is ultimately directed against China.
Oceania vs. Eurasia – this is the common denominator for the current global hegemonic struggle, with the imperialist camps trying to expand the borders of their spheres of influence. The USA, for example, is trying to firmly anchor the German-dominated EU, which since the Trump era has increasingly wanted to act as an independent actor, back into its sphere of influence.
The increasing autonomy of the late capitalist states also comes into play in the Eastern European countries, which are economically dependent on the Federal Republic, but at the same time tend to make agreements with the USA (especially Poland and the Baltic countries) when it comes to further rapprochement between torpedo Berlin and Moscow. The old Central Eastern European fear of a renewed division of the region between Berlin and Moscow, revived by the Nord Stream pipeline, offered the USA a good lever of power in Germany's economic "backyard" to push this agenda.
Ultimately, the increasing military conflicts in the semi-periphery of the world system, as well as Turkey's imperial ambitions, can be traced back to the imperial decline of the USA. Washington can no longer maintain the claim it made in the 1990s that it was the "world policeman" and largely monopolized the use of military means in bloody wars for global order. Regional powers push into the resulting power vacuum in order to enforce their imperialist ambitions with military means if necessary.
Shaky world order and crisis of capital
This is, in a nutshell, the much-invoked »multipolar world order« in the socio-ecological crisis of capital. In fact, the decline of the USA has resulted in the emergence of a number of small »young USA's«, which want to use military means to project the increasing social (and potentially also ecological) upheavals caused by the crisis to the outside world: from the Turkish war adventures in Syria, the South Caucasus and Libya to Russia's invasion of Ukraine to the eventual showdown between Beijing and Washington over Taiwan.
Similar to the 1930s, the economic crisis is breathing down the necks of the shattered state apparatus. The need to pass on the consequences of the crisis to others is constantly growing. As part of its economic expansion, the Federal Republic of Germany managed to literally export the consequences of the crisis, such as debt or unemployment, by means of high trade surpluses - at the expense of the deficits of the importing countries of the German export offensive. The eurozone sovereign debt crisis of the last decade is an example of this.
Last but not least, it is the mercilessly over-indebted United States that are effectively forced to fight for hegemony because they have to keep the dollar as the world currency. Without the dollar as the value of all goods, which Washington could until recently print at will to finance the extreme US budget deficit, the US would degenerate into a gigantic, nuclear-armed debt state. Due to the social disorganization at home, the US functional elite have long since developed a similar paranoia about Russian influence as that prevails in the Kremlin with regard to Western-financed "colorful revolutions".
Ultimately, however, it is precisely the socio-ecological world crisis of capital, specifically in the form of increasing inflation, that Washington itself is blocking this option of »deficit spending«, with which the internal contradictions could be whitewashed.
risk of a major war
War as a means of politics will thus become more attractive for the late capitalist functional elite. It forms a catalyst of the economic as well as perspectively also of the ecological crisis process: The resulting social upheavals find in it a violent medium of external discharge, which ultimately executes the self-destructive tendency of capital - up to the threat of nuclear war. In the case of Ukraine, one can still hope that the country's nuclear power plants are the only nuclear threat: NATO intervention has so far seemed unlikely after US President Biden ruled out direct military intervention in the run-up to the war.
However, a further escalation of the war cannot be ruled out. The powerless left currently only has the option of fighting for peace and enlightenment work: emphasizing the need for survival in a post-capitalist system transformation in order to prevent the barbaric collapse by means of another major war.