Russia Surrounded

[Clinamenic]

this is straying into fantasy territory now

I thought you were all about fantastic takes.

 

[IdleRich]

I think vim's question might be more like: "in that situation, would Russians focus their anger only on the people firing missiles at them, or would a critical percentage of that anger be directed at Putin for creating the situation?"

Yes, i was being a dick. Obviously I can't answer this question with any degree of confidence, but my previous comment (previous to this, after the dumb one) did attempt to be a little more serious in addressing issues that relate to it in some respects.

My point then is that, from my own experience, which (despite my claims above) is hardly comprehensive, lots of Russians do see the west as not liking them. A lot of them believe already that your average western European thoroughly dislikes Putin the leader, Russia the country and individual Russians as people. If western European countries did start bombing them I can hardly imagine it will change that opinion to favour those countries. So with the people that I am thinking of specifically, I wouldn't be at all surprised if it caused them to rally around Putin.

But of course, that's just my prediction which could be totally wrong and which is based on my understanding (which could also be wrong) of a small number of people. And even with my limited experience I have observed how much these types of feelings are very different depending on things such as level of education and how much they have travelled etc etc so take it with lots of lots of salt and some healthy scepticism on top of that.

 

[vimothy]

ultimately it's not a given what the effect of the sanctions might be. they might work as desired but they also might have the opposite effect. they dont seem to have been particularly successful in the case of iran, for example

 

[mixed_biscuits]

ultimately it's not a given what the effect of the sanctions might be. they might work as desired but they also might have the opposite effect. they dont seem to have been particularly successful in the case of iran, for example

Are you saying we should reward them instead?

 

[Clinamenic]

I think he's saying we shouldn't just expect sanctions to have their intended effect, and that they may even prompt a populist rally around Putin.

 

[hmg]

Are you saying we should reward them instead?

send in roadside rescue to get those tanks movin'

 

[Slothrop]

the logic is: crash russian economy, turn ppl against putin, putin abandons war in ukraine. obvs there's two major issues there. what if crashing economy doesnt have that effect and what if putin doesnt depend on public opinion to prosecute the war.

Is it about "public opinion", though, or is it about the direct interests of people in positions of power?

 

[luka]

I think he's saying we shouldn't just expect sanctions to have their intended effect, and that they may even prompt a populist rally around Putin.

if youd ever read a newspaper you would know that this line has been trotted out over 700 times over the last week or so. i literally dont read them but i can absorb these things by osmosis.

 

[hmg]

Putin's mortal, going through a bout of roid rage according to David Owen on Newsnight. Any group that makes a move on him will be cast as CIA agents, so a coup or populist rising won't work. It's going to take an unfortunate accident, perhaps when visiting the front, to get rid of him.

 

[Murphy]

We could always send you

 

[hmg]

These aren't just sanctions though, they're a global immuring that surpasses restrictions on the Soviets.

 

[wektor]

 

[wektor]

I highly doubt he is getting more popular among the public if he keeps on arresting children

 

[wektor]

What I would see as the highest danger within the following months is action to secure an influence at the Kremlin if Poutin goes down.
Even more imbalance than we already have.

 

[Clinamenic]

if youd ever read a newspaper you would know that this line has been trotted out over 700 times over the last week or so. i literally dont read them but i can absorb these things by osmosis.

Well yeah I can't say I've read any newspapers lately.

 

[vimothy]

Is it about "public opinion", though, or is it about the direct interests of people in positions of power?

presumably both. but then it's still an open question as to what the overall effect will be (e.g., suppose the ppl become alienated from the regime, but that the regime is independent of them and still able to function due to the ready availability of petrodollar or exporter dollar flows).

 

[Leo]

Knocked COVID off the front pages, just as the elites planned, and gives time and cover for Bill Gates to brew up the next variant. Win-win.

 

[wektor]

Login • Instagram

Welcome back to Instagram. Sign in to check out what your friends, family & interests have been capturing & sharing around the world.

www.instagram.com

we are a few steps closer to the internet crowdfunding of independent military units, be that a good or a bad thing
I feel like next few years might be interesting if people pick up on that idea

 

[Clinamenic]

Knocked COVID off the front pages, just as the elites planned, and gives time and cover for Bill Gates to brew up the next variant. Win-win.

This next one is gonna turn us into mosquitos, and ones that cant even reproduce at that.

 

[Clinamenic]

Login • Instagram

Welcome back to Instagram. Sign in to check out what your friends, family & interests have been capturing & sharing around the world.

www.instagram.com

we are a few steps closer to the internet crowdfunding of independent military units, be that a good or a bad thing
I feel like next few years might be interesting if people pick up on that idea

Or even independent hacktivist groups.

Apparently Anonymous was offering $50K in BTC to any Russian tank operators who would abandon their tank.

MSN

www.msn.com