Russia Surrounded

[Clinamenic]

Tweet from a major crypto exchange executive, responding to demands to comply with the sanctions regime:

 

[vimothy]

even now russia has access via capital controls / financial repression to enough dollar liquidity to support the ruble:

 

[toko]

ultimately it's not a given what the effect of the sanctions might be. they might work as desired but they also might have the opposite effect. they dont seem to have been particularly successful in the case of iran, for example

It's a question of how the narrative could be spun. I think Iran its much easier to spin as "big western imperial power doing imperial things," and while that might be true in Russia it's much harder to explain away given that Russian troops are on foreign soil.

 

[wektor]

@Clinamenic are you aware of any armed DAO?
Tbh surprising to me that CHAZ did not get down that route at all when I think about it now

 

[vimothy]

harder to explain to whom?

 

[wektor]

it might soon be illegal for Russians to leave the country btw

 

[toko]

harder to explain to whom?

the russian public.

 

[Clinamenic]

@Clinamenic are you aware of any armed DAO?
Tbh surprising to me that CHAZ did not get down that route at all when I think about it now

There is an activist DAO, I believe called Ukraine DAO, that has the woman from Pussy Riot, and some other prominent DAO figures. I don't know what exactly they're doing, though.

 

[vimothy]

the russian public.

no reason to expect that this is playing out in russian public opinion the same way it is as on our twitter feeds

 

[wektor]

There was an activist DAO, I believe called Ukraine DAO, that had the woman from Pussy Riot, and some other prominent DAO figures. I don't know what exactly they're doing, though.

oh yeah I have seen that. what I'm thinking is the public can easily finance their own little private army with that kind of tech, all it takes is a popular instagram account.

I might have posted this before but:

 

[toko]

Has there ever been this scale of sanctions vs a "developed" country before? I mean you obviously have the world wars and the cold war, but it seems like every company has cut off their services to Russia. Ofc they have their native grown networks and stuff but still.

 

[Clinamenic]

There is an activist DAO, I believe called Ukraine DAO, that has the woman from Pussy Riot, and some other prominent DAO figures. I don't know what exactly they're doing, though.

Pussy Riot Founder, Trippy Labs, PleasrDAO Members Launch Ukraine DAO - Decrypt

Ukraine DAO, co-founded by a Pussy Riot member, is selling Ethereum NFTs to raise money for Ukrainians harmed by the Russian invasion.

decrypt.co

 

[Clinamenic]

oh yeah I have seen that. what I'm thinking is the public can easily finance their own little private army with that kind of tech, all it takes is a popular instagram account.

I might have posted this before but:
View attachment 10768

Yeah you're right, its an almost uncensorable way to pool funds and manage an organization. Could apply to grassroots militias and whatnot.

 

[wektor]

no reason to expect that this is playing out in russian public opinion the same way it is as on our twitter feeds

I have seen some photos posted through vpns that show news on russian public transport saying Putin is nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for what he is doing right now.

 

[shakahislop]

On sanctions: maybe this is totally obvious already, but the people who actually make these decisions are also only making guesses about what the consequences could be. They will have access to much better information than is publicly available, and to a whole lot of analysis by people who spend thier whole lives trying to figure out this kind of thing. But in the end this is one problem of governance in general, that you have to make major decisions with very unpredictable consequences. That's before you get into all the constraints that any decision-maker has upon them.

I'm not saying that its particularly the case on here but I find that a lot of the commentary misses this kind of basic fact, that at the end of the day the people in charge are as limited as everyone else in terms of knowing what is going to happen, and that they will have information which, while probably better than what the public have, is far from perfect.

 

[toko]

I have seen some photos posted through vpns that show news on russian public transport saying Putin is nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for what he is doing right now.

lmfao. but i have to wonder, how representative is the media of the public opinion? does the public by and large buy the narrative? i guess its useless to pontificate.

 

[shakahislop]

Has there ever been this scale of sanctions vs a "developed" country before? I mean you obviously have the world wars and the cold war, but it seems like every company has cut off their services to Russia. Ofc they have their native grown networks and stuff but still.

I guess Iraq in the Saddam years might be an example, but I'm not sure if that would exactly be comparable to Russia. Certainly Iraq wasn't poor, and Russia I think is not so rich taken as a whole.

 

[toko]

On sanctions: maybe this is totally obvious already, but the people who actually make these decisions are also only making guesses about what the consequences could be. They will have access to much better information than is publicly available, and to a whole lot of analysis by people who spend thier whole lives trying to figure out this kind of thing. But in the end this is one problem of governance in general, that you have to make major decisions with very unpredictable consequences. That's before you get into all the constraints that any decision-maker has upon them.

I'm not saying that its particularly the case on here but I find that a lot of the commentary misses this kind of basic fact, that at the end of the day the people in charge are as limited as everyone else in terms of knowing what is going to happen, and that they will have information which, while probably better than what the public have, is far from perfect.

Also its not just about doing something its about looking like you are doing something.

 

[vimothy]

lmfao. but i have to wonder, how representative is the media of the public opinion? does the public by and large buy the narrative? i guess its useless to pontificate.

basically yeah: we don't know what public opinion is, how it will react, or even to what extent it matters

 

[vimothy]

the other big unknown is the unintended consequences of being drawn into some kind of conflict. even indirect involvement which seems like a massive win in the short to medium term can turn into a long term loss - consider Afghanistan, for eg.