Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)

[padraig (u.s.)]

it's not like you can just flip a switch and say "martial law activated". you have to call up the National Guard, mobilize, deploy, provide logistic support while you do that.

probably a more piecemeal suspension of specific freedoms, with draconian creep as time goes on? again, going off the example of Italy.

the main point that I'm pretty confident of, to the point of near certainty, is that we'll be dragged into it even more harshly and unwillingly than Italy was

New York is already fucked. New Jersey right behind. another dozen states already at the low hundreds of new cases/day point.

as we've seen, the death rate lags one-two weeks behind but we'll get there. in two weeks there could easily be 1000+ Americans dying every day. even Trump won't be able to talk about easing restrictions at that point.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Cuomo said today that New York has 7,000 ventilators and desperately needs another 30,000. in the next two weeks. FEMA is sending 400.

I have no idea how fast we can produce ventilators (or import them, if anywhere will export them, which seems unlikely) but I'm pretty confident it ain't 29,600 in two weeks or anything close to it.

imagine when a dozen states are desperately calling for tens of thousand of ventilators. there are about 170000 total nationwide right now.

 

[luka]

With a shortfall that big you'd end up having to pick names out a hat to decide who is going to get plugged in.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

I have a close friend who's involved in open-source DIY 3D-printing of masks - up to rigorous standards - etc for medical personnel, which is apparently a huge thing.

which is both a fantastic example of human solidarity and a stunning indictment of government ineptitude

 

[IdleRich]

It feels like Trump is bored of the whole thing.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

With a shortfall that big you'd end up having to pick names out a hat to decide who is going to get plugged in.

New York's cases are doubling roughly every 3 days. if that holds - I have no idea - it would mean 100,000+ cases in 6 days. in just New York.

something like 1/5 of cases wind up being admitted to hospitals, going by previous data elsewhere. idk what average % of those are ventilator-level serious.

keep in mind that people who need ventilators generally need them for 2-3 weeks, unless they die sooner. so once one is in use, it's often tied up for a long time.

30,000 seems like it might be excessive in a two-week time frame, but I assume he's going high and hoping for some bare minimum. also don't ask, don't get.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

It feels like Trump is bored of the whole thing.

he is in the worst, most insane side of favoring the economy

the irony is that, as people have said here and elsewhere, if you don't lockdown sufficiently for 8+ weeks now, you doom the economy even worse than a remotely sufficient lockdown will

 

[comelately]

Why do we think minimum 8 weeks? Just curious.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

the last 2 weeks have increasingly felt to me like I'm living in one long extended fever dream

the tsunami is rolling in from the horizon for anyone who cares to see it. all you have to do is lift your head up and look.

and many people are still living in in this complete fantasy that things will be back to normal by April 7, or April 12, or whenever. it makes you feel like you're losing your mind.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Why do we think minimum 8 weeks? Just curious.

pretty arbitrary number tbf

China's was what, 7 or so? they locked down much earlier and far more thoroughly. we're not even truly "locked down" and things are far worse. 8 seems optimistic if anything.

of course I fervently hope I'm dead wrong and things don't get nearly as bad as it seems like they will. every sign points that way, though.

 

[IdleRich]

You all saw the Chinese Red Cross guy saying the Italian lockdown was nowhere near strict enough the other day? I guess they did it super aggressive there but I guess the details were not released to other governments by official channels...? Lockdown could mean all kinds of things to different people of course.

 

[droid]

the last 2 weeks have increasingly felt to me like I'm living in one long extended fever dream

the tsunami is rolling in from the horizon for anyone who cares to see it. all you have to do is lift your head up and look.

and many people are still living in in this complete fantasy that things will be back to normal by April 7, or April 12, or whenever. it makes you feel like you're losing your mind.

This is how Ive felt about climate for the last decade or so. Its a bizarre and frightening feeling.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

it is. it really, really is. and it's a situation where being proven right only makes you feel vastly worse.

and definitely. the difference is that climate change has unfolded over years/decades and this has unfolded over weeks/months.

so even tho climate change is the far greater existential threat to humanity, the timelapse between how seriously people should be taking the pandemic and how seriously they are taking it has been much shorter

but it still feels like slow motion. completely maddening to watch people - and disastrously, governments, even after seeing what happened in other countries - consistently be 1-2 weeks or more behind where they should be.

we're currently at the moment where the tsunami is about to make impact and begin wreaking true devastation and people are just now looking up and saying "hey, a tsunami!"

total U.S. deaths 200+ today for the first time, NY alone 100+ for the first time. we're going to rocket past Italy for most (official) active cases in the world tomorrow (granted, we do have ~5.5x their population)

I remember the first time that happened in Italy. it was two weeks ago today. a week or so later they were consistently at 500+/day.

it's literally being able to glimpse into your own future with a completely unability to actually do anything about it (COVID-19:worst. time. travel. movie. ever.)

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

btw, I know I have been pretty relentlessly grim here for the last few weeks. sorry. it's how I process information - know the worst-case scenario, prepare yourself for it, hope to be pleasantly surprised.

I'm consistently refreshing worldometer throughout the day every day. I know that's not for everyone. I tried not doing it for a day and it made the anxiety much worse. I'd rather be informed, no matter how grim, I guess.

I think part of it is that staying informed is one of the very few things about this that an individual can more or less control

it's also hard to get into the worst details and numbers with people irl. I find myself pulling punches. I'm very aware of stressing don't panic, but also don't want to induce despair in anyone, irl or here.

hope is good and I'm glad that there are people are focusing on that. I just can't, myself.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Lockdown could mean all kinds of things to different people of course.

I mean it's not a technical or precise term like quarantine is (people obv do use quarantine in a non-technical sense, but it has a technical grounding)

in Illinois we're under a "shelter in place", order voluntarily self-imposed, with a curfew, also self-imposed. a ton of businesses I would consider non-essential are classed as essential under it.

for example, non-essential luxury housing construction is still going on in downtown Chicago. fast food places are open (drivethrough only). dry cleaners. elective medical procedures like LASIK. and so on.

idk how other states compare exactly. I did look at the Bay Area's - the first major urban area to do so - when it happened, and it was roughly the same as ours right now.

here's a state by state guide

as I type this, only 22 states and the District of Columbia are under lockdown. idk what exact % of U.S. population they contain, tho I'd assume majority given that list includes CA, IL, NY, OH, TX etc.

it's not remotely uniform and it's all varying levels of probably/definitely not strict enough. Florida is included there but literally all it's done is close restaurants/bars/entertainment venues in Miami and the surrounding counties. that is nothing.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

like many people, I watched Italy dragged into its current state, resisting almost every step of the way. they closed all the parks a couple days ago. we're a far sight off that. and they're not strict enough.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

this is why it's hard for me not to imagine a panicked declaration of national lockdown by next week or early the week after at the absolute latest

there is some number of deaths/day that it will take. idk what it is, probably a round figure. maybe 500, maybe 1000, I don't know. but there is a number, and we will almost certainly reach it.

Trump is truly amazing at ignoring things, twisting them to mean what he wants them to, etc, but even he will have to give in to reality at some grisly inflection point. it happened when he had to admit the pandemic was real and wouldn't go away.

it will be far too late, and I have no idea what form it will take. hopefully states will have done as much as they can by then to mitigate the damage. hopefully it won't devolve into literal martial law.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

meanwhile he's still playing these bullshit games with the stock market, like the Dow is what matters. it's fever dream.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

when I write my collection of plague year short fiction, "The Erotic Society of Straw Men and the Fever Dream" will be its concluding novella

(don't worry, you'll all be thanked by username in the acknowledgments)

 

[Mr. Tea]

It occurred to me what a shitty time it is to be homeless. Not that there's ever a good time, exactly, but if your main or only income is begging, and there's nobody around, then you're fucked.

Maybe Shelter and other charities have got this covered in at least some areas.