Wuhan Killer Sneeze (thanks Tea)

[mistersloane]

Fair to say that this is probably the scariest thing I've read, er, ever about life in the UK

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...il-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

"If the mortality rate turns out to be the 1% many experts are using as their working assumption then that would mean 531,100 deaths. But if Whitty’s insistence that the rate will be closer to 0.6% proves accurate, then that would involve 318,660 people dying."

On an 80% infection rate, so about roughly 40-something million people will get this.
7.9 million hospitalised in a country which now has something like 175000 hospital beds and is paying private companies millions per day as well. But not hospitalised consistently over year, but in two or three horrific peaks when the service is going to collapse.

"Testing services are under such strain that even NHS staff will not be swabbed, despite their key role and the risk of them passing the virus on to patients."

Hey man,

We're right in the middle of this, the Doc is on the board of the regional disaster planning for WA or whatever so we're right in the trenches and it's literally all I've talked about for a month, aside from drag race. The stats for mortality are 2% for healthy population, but they go up exponentially after the age of 50 - up to like 17% mortality for the over 80s. So most people would be looking at testing positive but not even hardly showing symptoms. For those that get ill, and for those that are hospitalised, it's problematic. I'm not sure of the figures for the UK in terms of how many.

 

[version]

The stats for mortality are 2% for healthy population, but they go up exponentially after the age of 50 - up to like 17% mortality for the over 80s.

 

[version]

PearlRiverFlow
@PearlRiverFlow

If you're worried about what to do while you're quarantined, remember that while he was in isolation, Mathematician Theodore Kaczynski completed more than 16 successful technical projects and wrote a 35 thousand word essay that was published in the New York Times.

3:46 pm · 14 Mar 2020·Twitter Web App

:crylarf:

 

[sufi]

Hey man,

We're right in the middle of this, the Doc is on the board of the regional disaster planning for WA or whatever so we're right in the trenches and it's literally all I've talked about for a month, aside from drag race. The stats for mortality are 2% for healthy population, but they go up exponentially after the age of 50 - up to like 17% mortality for the over 80s. So most people would be looking at testing positive but not even hardly showing symptoms. For those that get ill, and for those that are hospitalised, it's problematic. I'm not sure of the figures for the UK in terms of how many.

Hey good morning it's a lovely spring day here

 

[Mellsman]

The stats for mortality are 2% for healthy population,


I thought the stat. for overall population was 2%.

 

[baboon2004]

Hey man,

We're right in the middle of this, the Doc is on the board of the regional disaster planning for WA or whatever so we're right in the trenches and it's literally all I've talked about for a month, aside from drag race. The stats for mortality are 2% for healthy population, but they go up exponentially after the age of 50 - up to like 17% mortality for the over 80s. So most people would be looking at testing positive but not even hardly showing symptoms. For those that get ill, and for those that are hospitalised, it's problematic. I'm not sure of the figures for the UK in terms of how many.

Thanks Mistersloane, much appreciated. Hope the Doc is doing okay, that sounds bloody stressful. Drag race downtime def needed.

Definitely a problem with hospitalisation here, not sure how it compares in WA. Very few ICU beds unoccupied, not that many beds overall, precious few ventilators, no testing on NHS staff as policy(!). I imagine mortality rate will be more like Italy at the worst periods

 

[Mr. Tea]

Estimates for mortality rate seem to vary wildly depending on who you listen to. I guess a huge part of this is that we don't know how many people are walking around with the virus but not showing symptoms, and I understand a large fraction of them never will.

This is both a good thing, as it means the mortality rate is much lower than we think it is, and a bad thing, because it greatly increases the risk of the vulnerable sick and elderly being exposed to it.

 

[droid]

we'll see more of this talk

the question is how much of it will be put into action, what forms that action will take, and what changes that will wreak in global economic structures

Best case scenario is that this leads to an increase in self sufficiency and ruggedisation of essential services at the national level accompanied by an improvement in intra-national cooperation and strengthening of international organisations (like the WHO). The simultaneous realisation that we need global coordination to counter major crises and control over local infrastructure and services to survive them.

Im under no illusions, and responses are varying wildly, but this, so far, seems to be the way things are leaning, and it is precisely what we need to do to counter future threats.

 

[droid]

 

[yyaldrin]

when you guys are saying you are self isolating, does this mean you guys don't see any friends anymore either?

 

[john eden]

when you guys are saying you are self isolating, does this mean you guys don't see any friends anymore either?

I'm not, but that's what it means, yes.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-stay-at-home-guidance

I will not be visiting my parents any time soon.

This means I may never see them again, except for on a Skype call.

 

[Corpsey]

Sorry to hear that, Eden. My parents are in their 70s and in good health so I'm lucky (or stupid?) to be not be too worried about them atm.

 

[IdleRich]

Not really seeing friends at the moment. Easy to do cos we live out of town anyway so basically unless I go into Lisbon I won't see anyone I know.
That said we went shopping on Sunday; Pingo Doce was only letting in ten at a time, presumably so people could stay away from each other, but we went to Aldi which was as normal though quiet and there was no fresh meat on the shelves.
The postman rang the door today though and handed me a record. We are thinking to go for a picnic on the beach or in woods away from everyone just to alleviate boredom - should be ok right?

 

[IdleRich]

Thoughts to everyone worrying about elder relatives... my parents seemed fine last we spoke and they are usually fairly self-reliant, but have a number of relatives in Anglesey who are quite frail, genuinely don't know how they will manage.

 

[IdleRich]

Looking out from our balcony and the streets are surprisingly busy. There is a chemist opposite which is staffed by the slowest people in the world, it's common to take twenty minutes to get served if there are two or three people in the queue in front of you.... anyway, today it is completely full with the queue (not really a queue cos they are all distancing from each other - more like a loose group hovering near the shop) seven strong outside the door. I'm not really sure what they are getting but I guess they have their reasons, what I find strange is that I counted five or six other people just on the street, one guy walking his dog etc I think it's actually busier than it has been, surely people aren't already going "fuck it"?

 

[hmg]

surely people aren't already going "fuck it"?

Getting out while they still can?

 

[IdleRich]

Perhaps they are following the advice of Devon "cow" Nunes who said "if you’re healthy, you and your family, it’s a great time to just go out, go to a local restaurant. Likely you can get in easily."

 

[pattycakes_]

Some people will be unable to accept the reality

 

[john eden]

Getting out while they still can?

This.

 

[version]

Experts have criticised NHS advice that people self-isolating with Covid-19 should take ibuprofen, saying there is plausible evidence this could aggravate the condition.

The comments came after French authorities warned against taking widely used over the counter anti-inflammatory drugs. The country’s health minister, Olivier Véran, a qualified doctor and neurologist, tweeted on Saturday: “The taking of anti-inflammatories [ibuprofen, cortisone … ] could be a factor in aggravating the infection. In case of fever, take paracetamol. If you are already taking anti-inflammatory drugs, ask your doctor’s advice.”

Paul Little, a professor of primary care research at the University of Southampton, said: “The general feeling is that the French advice is fairly sensible. There is now a sizeable literature from case control studies in several countries that prolonged illness or the complications of respiratory infections may be more common when non-steroidal anti-inflammatories [NSAIDs] are used.”

A trial by Little and his colleagues, published in the BMJ, found patients with respiratory infections such as coughs, colds and sore throats who were prescribed ibuprofen rather than paracetamol by their GP were more likely to subsequently suffer severe illness or complications. Several other studies have linked anti-inflammatory drugs to worsened pneumonia.

Little said this could be because inflammation is part of the body’s natural response to infection. “If you’re suppressing that natural response, you’re likely inhibiting your body’s ability to fight off infection,” he said.

The evidence in this area was “not 100% clear” and had not come directly from studies of patients with Covid-19, Little said. “I personally think that given there is plausible evidence for harm, the advice should be changed.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ise-nhs-advice-to-take-ibuprofen-for-covid-19