Election 2020
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
not running the tiredest old man in the world would be a good start
but it's also too early to say things like "the GOP is fine"
wait for a more detailed post-mortem, especially in such a singularly weird year
both major party candidates are almost automatically going to get at least 45% of the vote - you have to back to 84 to find an election when that wasn't the case without a 3rd party spoiler (as Perot was in 92 + 96). and Trump is going to wind up losing the popular vote by slightly more than he did in 2016. it's not ideal, if you're a Democrat, but it's not the end of the world either.
The only book I've ever read about JFK suggested that LBJ did it! In my defence, it is by a guy who has been reading about this stuff for 30 years. Robin Ramsey from Lobster Magazine.
version
Well-known member
I've been recommended this book on JFK a bunch of times.
JFK and the Unspeakable: Why He Died & Why It Matters
In this fascinating and disturbing book James Douglass …
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
I do wonder if Bernie or Warren would've done in place of Biden
my instinct is slightly better overall, probably better margins in blue states
Electoral College less clear, depends on how they fared in the Rust Belt
my instinct is slightly better overall, probably better margins in blue states
Electoral College less clear, depends on how they fared in the Rust Belt
IdleRich
IdleRich
And award it to the leader... Biden?
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Sure, but America is 3/4 white and half of them are men. So a given percentage fall in that demographic is more damaging than the same rise in, say, Latino voters is beneficial.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
too late
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
the real question about Trump's demographic gains is, again, to what extent they're related to him personally vs the GOP
and just like in 2016 I don't think anyone has a good way of making that distinction
and just like in 2016 I don't think anyone has a good way of making that distinction
Why would the GOP have generated gains? I don't follow US politics closely enough to know but are there many reasons they would have?
version
Well-known member
The claims I'm seeing are that it's down to people reacting negatively to socially progressive politics and the unrest after the George Floyd killing, plus the colossal amount of misinformation being spread online.
line b
Well-known member
this goes back to my original point that I don't think regaining the white vote will be all that hard if they ran a slightly more palatable candidate who could also capitalize on Trumps gains in other demographics. Or at least I think that could be the ploy. all conjecture though. But I don't think the shifting demographics are completely in the bag for the dems like once thought as shown by this election.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
it's hard to say?
it's hard to point to any specific major policy changes in the last 4 years that would have generated GOP gains with POC
the hot takes are probably the ones @version listed, supposed backlash to wokeness/post-George Floyd and/or (depending on yr POV) manipulation
the more establishment GOP line would something like we've always been the right party for POC, smaller govt/lower taxes is good for everyone, Democrats are the real racists (of low expectations), etc but if the obv question there is if they weren't buying what you were selling 4 years ago - or 8, 12, 16, etc - why would they now
line b
Well-known member
I get the feeling the dems are viewed as the defacto party of the culture war (in part by their own doing) and any social unrest will be ascribed to them regardless of actual fault. potentially a compounding realism affect aswell where george floyd like turmoil isnt an aberration but the norm and what voters want to see is which party can make it the most palatable rather than addressed, though I guess that isnt too far off from the norm