padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
This I don't quite agree with. Lebanon, the Intifadas, and Lebanon again all proved that Israel isn't untouchable. Not in this way, granted. However, the oncoming massive reprisal will surely be followed by an enormously focused increase on security. Like, this almost certainly won't happen again. It will be a singular event that will join terms like Kfar Etzion in national memory.Regardless of what happens now, Hamas' ruthlessness and Israel's catastrophic security failures have shattered long held assumptions about the conflict and Israel's security and control capabilities. The symbolism of a successful attack against a seemingly untouchable enemy is immense, especially on the anniversary of Yom Kippur. It has shades of the cross border fedayeen raids prior to Black September and has the potential to enflame Arab public opinion across the entire region and spark a widespread rebellion, and ofc, it commands significant popular support even from those Palestinians who oppose Hamas politically, which is no surprise when you consider how thoroughly those people have been ground into the dirt by the occupation and how little they have left to lose.
The fedayeen raids as far as I know never reached anything like this scale.
Idk if I agree about a regional popular uprising either. Idk if most non-Palestianian Arabs care enough about Palestinian liberation to truly risk anything of their own (see also: Americans and Ukraine, or going back Irish-Americans and the IRA, etc). I wouldn't even be surprised if the Isr-SA deal does go thru despite this. I don't think MBS cares about Palestinians at all. I could see enough popular discontent that it's untenable for him. Uprisings I doubt.
Palestinians themselves, esp those in Gaza, absolutely. Israeli govt has left them no options, so it's no surprise they'd support this bullshit, and Israel has no one but itself to blame for that.