mixed_biscuits
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Where are those game theory analyses...fewer facts more incentives.
Since it's been a while since we had an Israel/Palestine thread...
- Thread starter Mr. Tea
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mixed_biscuits
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The best position a putative independent negotiator could be in is to know absolutely diddly-squat about the millions of historical interactions between the two camps, just ask them what they want and tell them if there are any resources which cannot be divvied up here and now those resources will be dealt with semi-blind using a Prisoner's Dilemma mechanism.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
the only simplistic takes are your fantasy cardboard cutout version of "leftists" and "perennial moralizing dichotomies"
nothing is simple. nothing is ever simple. the two founding generations of Israel were overwhelmingly left-wing and they did many terrible things - the expulsions of 1948, the beginning of massive reprisal and collective punishment, the occupations, etc. the difference from Netanyahu and the religious Zionist and Haredi parties now is that they were also willing to try to make deals, bc they had different incentives.
the point is not that the modern Israeli RW is ipso facto "bad" - whether or not I think it is - it's that it doesn't feel incentivized to make any lasting deal bc it's motivated by irredentism, either religious beliefs about a Greater Israel based on the Torah (Otzma Yehudit, Religious Zionism, etc) or secular beliefs about denying a Palestinian state and the Israeli right to "Judea and Samaria" (most of Likud). the religious element is both smaller and more hardline, but has an outsized influence due to both its internal cohesion/dedication and decades of secular Israeli govts refusing to reign it in in any significant way.
similarly, Hamas is less incentivized to make a lasting deal with Israel than the Palestinian Authority/Fatah because they have different ideological goals. That's exactly why Netanyahu has worked so hard to strengthen the former and weaken the latter.
see how learning facts can help someone understand why different actors have different incentives? Did I make that simple enough for you to understand or do I need to make it simpler?
and no one anywhere thinks a two-state solution will lead to everyone living happily ever after with no further issues. what many people do think is that it's the only option with any realistic chance of leading to a lasting peace. no thinks it will be easy, or guaranteed to work, just like no one knew if Good Friday or the negotiations to end apartheid would work. they were worth attempting because perennial violence was untenable, just like it is here.
Clinamenic
Binary & Tweed
In principle yes, but I do think there is a tacit and not unreasonable assumption that institutions, especially of Adobe’s level of influence, would have greater scruples than your run-of-the-mill ruffian.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
no you're right of course, notoriously every successful deal in human history has been achieved by sending a negotatior who didn't know anything about either side or what they wanted
that was the British approach to Indian partition and as we all know that was a huge success with minimal violence, mutual satisfaction, and no lasting repercussions whatsoever
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
Game theory lunatics are a special breed
Kind of a cousin to absolutist free market cheerleaders
Same demented abstract logic that immediately bursts into flames upon any contact with a real, tangible situation
Kind of a cousin to absolutist free market cheerleaders
Same demented abstract logic that immediately bursts into flames upon any contact with a real, tangible situation
mixed_biscuits
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Fact deficit: you've said every deal and only provided one.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
@padraig (u.s.) - you're getting sucked into exactly the same vapid, contrarian, biscuity quagmire of false equivalence and disingenuous faux-reasonableness that I fell prey to a few weeks ago!
mixed_biscuits
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Just say you can't do maths...Game Theory is the science of incentives and reasoning about them; it's thinking carefully, clearly and logically about the things that you have briefly and informally discussed right now.
mixed_biscuits
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Yes, I'm in the wheelchair for a while but you've literally done my bidding and also moved a little bit further from my fantasy cardboard cutout image of you that you had almost indelibly drawn in the trans thread, where practically all of your arguments were 'such and such knows such and such knows someone knows Mabel who babysat for Mussolini and that's why it's bad'.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
Yeah bro my next post was gonna be I'm done with biscuits in this thread just like chava. I tried. You can only do so much.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Game theory in the early Cold War dictated that the US destroy the USSR's entire military capability and their major population centres with nuclear weapons before the Soviets developed the capability to do the same in return, and presumably dictates that Israel do the same to Gaza.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
Yeah I'm done with you man
Made an honest effort, that's that
No more food for the troll
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
You were right, just let it go man
Let's just focus on relevant things. People will make relevant posts.
mixed_biscuits
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How lefties deal with conflict:
1. Conflict brings ambiguity and stress and stress because ambiguity. To the leftist the first important task is to resolve the ambiguity. This is done by identifying with one side and disidentifying with the other. The side that is identified with is considered fundamentally good because the identifier considers themselves fundamentally good. Logically, then, it's antagonist is fundamentally bad.
2. The leftist, then, invests their emotion through identification with one side and even if facts are marshalled they are in the role of soldiers in its cause* as one outcome is fervently wished for (there is no disengaged objective view of the conflict).
3. That's it.
This setup is how a child deals with the conflict; it is the fundamentally good centre of activity in the world and things are either there to help it or the opposite.
*cf https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PeSzc9JTBxhaYRp9b/policy-debates-should-not-appear-one-sided. This is where the leftist Israel/Palestine stamp collecting of facts is from: kudos is gained among in the ingroup proportionate to one's usefulness as a provider of weaponised facts.
1. Conflict brings ambiguity and stress and stress because ambiguity. To the leftist the first important task is to resolve the ambiguity. This is done by identifying with one side and disidentifying with the other. The side that is identified with is considered fundamentally good because the identifier considers themselves fundamentally good. Logically, then, it's antagonist is fundamentally bad.
2. The leftist, then, invests their emotion through identification with one side and even if facts are marshalled they are in the role of soldiers in its cause* as one outcome is fervently wished for (there is no disengaged objective view of the conflict).
3. That's it.
This setup is how a child deals with the conflict; it is the fundamentally good centre of activity in the world and things are either there to help it or the opposite.
*cf https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PeSzc9JTBxhaYRp9b/policy-debates-should-not-appear-one-sided. This is where the leftist Israel/Palestine stamp collecting of facts is from: kudos is gained among in the ingroup proportionate to one's usefulness as a provider of weaponised facts.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
Back on topic, Abbas called for a ceasefire and a return to negotiations based on a two-state solution with 1967 borders. Yunno like every prior negotiation ever. Definitely not gonna happen with this Israeli govt.
mixed_biscuits
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Yes, that was roughly my non-game theoretic explanation for Israeli oppression that is considered to be evil because irrational...it's rational.
mixed_biscuits
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Any agreement can't entail Israeli ground lost on the situation prior to the Hamas atrocity...