We, on the other hand, minimaxed the hell out of the situation. We did our best WHAT-ABOUT-THE-CHILDREN! maximum death scenario, and then moved an entire country to war footing to avoid this worst case. Don’t forget what Cuomo said: any cost is worth it if we save just one life.
An alternative to minimax is Bayesian, meaning according all relevant information its due weight. And then acting on that cumulative knowledge, not on the worst damn thing that could happen. This is not a do-nothing policy, but a do-only-what’s-likely-necessary policy.
Minimax is effeminate. Our own country used to have hardier stock. Want proof?
Who recalls the 1957-1958 flu pandemic? The CDC said the “estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States.”
The 1968 pandemic? “The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Most excess deaths were in people 65 years and older.”
The wimpy 2009 pandemic had nothing on these guys. “From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus” and “151,700-575,400” worldwide.
We survived all these. We survived without martial law lite.
Incidentally, those earlier death tolls are worse than they seem because the USA population was much less than now.
Can you even imagine the apoplectic reaction our current leaders and populace would have to an outbreak like the 1957-1958 pandemic today? Hysteria isn’t in it.
Want more evidence panic is official? Fellow names Aaron Ginn published a piece on Medium, “Evidence over hysteria — COVID-19“. Filled with the same kind of thing you get here, but in a lot more colorful detail, and citing all sorts of competent sources. Medium suppressed it. (The link is to an archive.org version.)
My guess is the block is not because the report was inaccurate, which it doesn’t seem to be, but because of the fear of lawyers, which is justifiable. All it would take is some dumb citizen to say they read Ginn’s article, felt hopeful, went outside, and got the virus. The she sues. I, on the other hand, have no fear of lawyers, because I always wear a necklace of pure garlic.
