Russia Surrounded

[vimothy]

but do you know that they're unusable, or are you just saying they might be?

Do you mean via weapons inspections? Are they continuing, and do they give a 5-star rating for reliability.
Doesn't seem impossible that their ICBMs use non-Russian (Ukrainian, lol) components that need replacing.

 

[Mr. Tea]

deescalate to avoid a nuclear war

Is that a euphemism for "let him have Ukraine and hope he goes away"?

 

[Mr. Tea]

Does appeasing expansionist dictators have a history of working out well in the long run?

 

[vimothy]

let's just assume, for arguments sake, that they work. then do you agree that we have to factor them in to the overall calculus of the war?

 

[vimothy]

or can we just write off russias nuclear deterrent?

 

[Mr. Tea]

let's just assume, for arguments sake, that they work. then do you agree that we have to factor them in to the overall calculus of the war?

Of course. But as I've said, I don't think Putin is suicidal or insane, and even if he were, he is surrounded other powerful and influential people, at least some of whom are not. It's not like he presses a button on his phone and boom, there goes London and Washington. He is obviously well aware that NATO possesses the ability to destroy Russia, too.

 

[Mr. Tea]

Is that a euphemism for "let him have Ukraine and hope he goes away"?

You still haven't answered this, btw.

 

[HMGovt’s Glorious Return!]

or can we just write off russias nuclear deterrent?

Everything except hypersonic nuclear deterrent — probably. The US can intercept and destroy the majority of incoming warheads, and the yields of those that do penetrate are much smaller these days, thanks to increased accuracy. Personally, not that bothered, it's nothing like as scary as the 80s.

 

[vimothy]

brave

 

[vimothy]

fair play

 

[DannyL]

deescalate to avoid a nuclear war

Which means what precisely?

 

[vimothy]

You still haven't answered this, btw.

not sure what you want me to say. ending the war requires some kind of compromise. idk what that is. pre 2014 situ seems like a good place to start.

 

[Mr. Tea]

Which means what precisely?

Let him have Ukraine and hope he doesn't get any funny ideas about Poland, as far as I can tell.

 

[DannyL]

Is that a euphemism for "let him have Ukraine and hope he goes away"?

That was what I was thinking
The thing with the anti-war left (which is not Vimoty, I know) is that they never spell it out
Cos the logic means if you launch a war of aggression, threaten to nuke everyone when you're challenged, you will be rewarded.
Not at all a recipe for peace.

 

[Mr. Tea]

not sure what you want me to say. ending the war requires some kind of compromise. idk what that is. pre 2014 situ seems like a good place to start.

Which is impossible while Russia still holds territory that it's taken since last February, right?

 

[DannyL]

not sure what you want me to say. ending the war requires some kind of compromise. idk what that is. pre 2014 situ seems like a good place to start.

Losing Crimea or having that seriously challenged will be the pinch point I think. Might lead to nukes or a chemical weapons attack, Idk.

 

[Mr. Tea]

Never mind the vacuity of insisting that one party "negotiate" with an aggressor that has its knife to their throat.

 

[vimothy]

I dont agree that russia is being expansionist however. its response to nato expansion is not surprising. you can imagine how the us would respond if the tables were turned. altho in fact you dont have to imagine, bc it happened with similar results

 

[Mr. Tea]

That was what I was thinking
The thing with the anti-war left (which is not Vimoty, I know) is that they never spell it out
Cos the logic means if you launch a war of aggression, threaten to nuke everyone when you're challenged, you will be rewarded.
Not at all a recipe for peace.

Yeah, it's an argument for every state with the requisite resources to acquire nuclear weapons immediately. A pacifist case for universal armament.

 

[vimothy]

That was what I was thinking
The thing with the anti-war left (which is not Vimoty, I know) is that they never spell it out
Cos the logic means if you launch a war of aggression, threaten to nuke everyone when you're challenged, you will be rewarded.
Not at all a recipe for peace.

but at a certain point, the war ends right? and then you negotiate for peace?