vimothy
yurp
are you really not scared by the prospect of nuclear war?
Russia Surrounded
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vimothy
yurp
but the obvious point is that the nukes are a last resort. putin is hitting the button only when he has no other options, so the threat in response no longer applies
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
That question presupposes that the prospect actually exists at a reasonable likelihood.
Well, people said similar things about him invading and look how that turned out.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Some people said that. Others said "this looks like the build-up to an invasion."
If he thought he can ride it out in the Altai mountains, he's since been informed that assumption is wrong. Mutually and personally assured destruction, in his case.
I wonder if Perimeter is still running? Hope not.
vimothy
yurp
we haven't been wiped out in a nuclear war yet, so its obviously not a possibility
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
It's been a 'potential outcome' since 1949.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
@vimothy I think we can all agree that Putin is a lot less well informed than we thought (and he thought) he was prior to February last year, right? But that doesn't mean he isn't a rational actor. What benefits would the use of tactical nuclear weapons bring Russia? What would be the negative effects? And what would be the negative effects for him, personally?
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
Of course it's possible. What I'm saying is that the war has been going badly enough for long enough that he's already had a motive for using nuclear weapons for some time, and hasn't. That's telling in itself. It's also pretty likely that Russia's nuclear arsenal is virtually or literally unusable due to decades of poor to nonexistent maintenance, and that he knows this, or at least suspects it.
vimothy
yurp
I imagine that putin wants to retain power. and moreover wants to avoid winding up like Gaddafi. so if that's on the cards, nukes look like an attractive option. maybe there are other things that bring them onto the table, idk. theyre there arent they, it would be foolish to think that Russia isnt going to use them, ever
vimothy
yurp
if russias nuclear weapons are completely unusable then surely we would know
I worry that he might lob a revenge SS20 at Kiev on the way out, or threaten to do so in response to any incursion into Russia following a rout. Tactical weapons are useless in Ukraine, there's a very specific offensive doctrine that calls for their use.
vimothy
yurp
deescalate to avoid a nuclear war
Do you mean via weapons inspections? Are they continuing, and do they give a 5-star rating for reliability.
Doesn't seem impossible that their ICBMs use non-Russian (Ukrainian, lol) components that need replacing.
Mr. Tea
Let's Talk About Ceps
How do you mean, "we would know"?
A lot of people whose job it is to know about this kind of thing strongly suspect this. That falls short of certain knowledge, of course. The obvious response is "but do we want to put it to the test?", of course.