The brief rebellion by the Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny V. Prigozhin failed to gather much public support as his columns were moving toward Moscow — and a new analysis of messages on social media suggests that Kremlin propaganda efforts had undermined his popularity before the mutiny even began.
Mr. Prigozhin had become a polemical figure in Russian political life in the months since the full-scale invasion last year, frequently criticizing the military leadership and forcing the Kremlin into a delicate balancing act.
On one hand, the Kremlin leveraged Mr. Prigozhin’s assault of Bakhmut to claim progress after losses on the battlefield last fall in the Kharkiv region and near Kherson. On the other, it carefully avoided elevating Mr. Prigozhin’s status too much, to avoid destabilizing the political system that President Vladimir V. Putin has been building since he entered the Kremlin more than two decades ago.
With the fall of Bakhmut last month, however, Mr. Prigozhin’s usefulness to the government in Moscow seemed to have run out.
The Russian Ministry of Defense quickly moved to assert its authority over Mr. Prigozhin’s unregulated corps of fighters, announcing a plan that would have put Wagner forces under direct state control by requiring anyone fighting in Ukraine to have a contract with the Russian army.
At the same time, the Kremlin’s machinery for influencing public opinion kicked into gear, chipping away at Mr. Prigozhin’s image.
The new analysis by a FilterLabs.AI, a firm that tracks public sentiment in Russia by monitoring social media and internet forums, found that Mr. Prigozhin was subjected to a Kremlin propaganda assault. (FilterLabs uses computer algorithms to track internet and social media postings to see if people are speaking negatively or positively about a topic or person.)
Russian news media backed the Ministry of Defense plan, and state-influenced outlets began speaking more critically of Mr. Prigozhin. At the same time, access to Telegram channels that were controlled by him or supportive of him became more difficult, with users reporting slowdowns. Public support for Mr. Prigozhin and Wagner fell sharply, FilterLabs found.
And even though Mr. Prigozhin had built a following with his criticism of how Russia’s military leaders had managed the war, he saw no sharp upswing in support as he moved against the capital, the firm found.
“For Prigozhin’s campaign to have worked, he would have needed to see high support in Moscow,”
the FilterLabs analysis said. “This did not materialize, despite his own base of support and media campaigns.”
The swing in public sentiment happened over mere weeks. Jonathan Teubner, the chief executive of FilterLabs, said that attitudes on social media, Telegram and internet forums had been trending more negative toward Sergei Shoigu, the defense minister, and more positive toward Mr. Prigozhin as recently as early June.
By the time Mr. Prigozhin launched his failed rebellion, however, that had changed, Mr. Teubner said. “He really fell hard when he turned his army toward Moscow,” Mr. Teubner said.