Russia Surrounded

[Clinamenic]

what then is the purpose of destroying their economy?

Ostensibly its to pressure Putin to cease the invasion.

 

[luka]

I can see how targeted sanctions can have collateral damage and nth order effects that hurt the western alliance, but I don't see how they could ultimately make Putin stronger.

well, one obvious way is to make Russians feel as tho they're under attack and therefore band together

i explained this to Stan before but he can't get his head around it.

 

[luka]

it's like he has never read about any other situation in which sanctions have been applied around the world. like the sanctions which caused the fall of Fidel Castro for example.

 

[vimothy]

I can see how targeted sanctions can have collateral damage and nth order effects that hurt the western alliance, but I don't see how they could ultimately make Putin stronger.

also, they're not really nth order effects. the *direct* effects on commodity and especially energy markets have been evident today

 

[Clinamenic]

also, they're not really nth order effects. the *direct* effects on commodity and especially energy markets have been evident today

Do you also take issue with the term collateral damage?

 

[vimothy]

Ostensibly its to pressure Putin to cease the invasion.

so it is "about" the russian ppl, in other words

 

[Clinamenic]

Yeah I'm under the impression that the west is willing to gamble with the welfare of Russians in order to pressure Putin, the individual, to cease the invasion.

 

[Clinamenic]

Although at this stage maybe the demand is shifting away from merely ceasing the invasion. I'm not up with the cutting edge public statements, but I suspect the demand may increase beyond that, maybe including reparations of some kind. Just speculation though.

 

[Clinamenic]

Yeah I'm under the impression that the west is willing to gamble with the welfare of Russians in order to pressure Putin, the individual, to cease the invasion.

Putin, and surrounding state officials, whom I'm not familiar with.

 

[...]

Lukashenko has let slip that Moldova is next

 

[vimothy]

the logic is: crash russian economy, turn ppl against putin, putin abandons war in ukraine. obvs there's two major issues there. what if crashing economy doesnt have that effect and what if putin doesnt depend on public opinion to prosecute the war.

 

[Clinamenic]

the logic is: crash russian economy, turn ppl against putin, putin abandons war in ukraine. obvs there's two major issues there. what if crashing economy doesnt have that effect and what if putin doesnt depend on public opinion to prosecute the war.

Yeah I see that logic, that the sanctions can be intended to pressure Putin toward peace while also pressuring people to turn against Putin. It also seems like the latter is predicated on the western narrative prevailing over the Kremlin narrative throughout Russian culture, which I have doubts about and which goes to your point. That said, this is also just speculation.

 

[Mr. Tea]

the logic is: crash russian economy, turn ppl against putin, putin abandons war in ukraine. obvs there's two major issues there. what if crashing economy doesnt have that effect and what if putin doesnt depend on public opinion to prosecute the war.

Crashing the economy might, at the very least, mean there is no longer enough money to fight the war.

 

[IdleRich]

suppose we launched missiles at Russia. what effect would that have on russian popular opinion?

Unlike most of you lot I have been to Russia quite a few times - I've spent time in several Russian cities, have a number of friends there and also I have Russian friends in various other countries. I am therefore best placed to give an insight into how Russians would feel about having missiles launched at them. I can tell you, they wouldn't like it.

 

[Mr. Tea]

Unlike most of you lot I have been to Russia quite a few times - I've spent time in several Russian cities, have a number of friends there and also I have Russian friends in various other countries. I am therefore best placed to give an insight into how Russians would feel about having missiles launched at them. I can tell you, they wouldn't like it.

I think vim's question might be more like: "in that situation, would Russians focus their anger only on the people firing missiles at them, or would a critical percentage of that anger be directed at Putin for creating the situation?"

 

[Clinamenic]

I think vim's question might be more like: "in that situation, would Russians focus their anger only on the people firing missiles at them, or would a critical percentage of that anger be directed at Putin for creating the situation?"

Yeah and I'd say that mostly depends on how well western narratives can contend with top-down narratives in Russia. I really have no idea.

 

[IdleRich]

What I would say about Russian people that i have met (I have mentioned this before but I think it's sort of relevant so...) is that when I have been there many of them have - rightly I suppose - mentioned how much westerners tend to dislike Putin and, by extension, the Russian leadership and Russia itself. But they have also told me that people in Europe hate the Russian people - something which I have taken issue with them on. I have had to reassure several people - while they sceptically shake their heads - that yer average man/woman in the street is perfectly capable of separating the actions of one domineering leader and the people whose name he claims to act in. I have insisted several times that people in Europe bear no ill-will to the average Russian and they do not see them all as one hateful block of which Putin is merely the most visible part.

That's why I have been so taken aback by stuff like that video of the Georgian guy refusing to refuel the Russian boat. Was I wrong when I said that? Was I inadvertently misleading all the people I met with a fairy tale that I wanted to believe but which was ultimately just that?

 

[Mr. Tea]

Yeah and I'd say that mostly depends on how well western narratives can contend with top-down narratives in Russia. I really have no idea.

To echo craner, this war might be the tipping point at which that control is no longer effective enough. If soldiers have been led to believe that most Ukrainians would welcome them as liberators, and any that didn't would be mad vicious Nazis, but find that neither of those things are true - that they're ordinary people who hate Putin and love their country, but have no intrinsic animus against Russians - then those disillusioned soldiers returning home could have a similar effect on the Putin regime as the defeated Red Army vets coming home from Afghanistan did on the late USSR in the 80s.

 

[Clinamenic]

To echo craner, this war might be the tipping point at which that control is no longer effective enough. If soldiers have been led to believe that most Ukrainians would welcome them as liberators, and any that didn't would be mad vicious Nazis, but find that neither of those things are true - that they're ordinary people who hate Putin and love their country, but have no intrinsic animus against Russians - then those disillusioned soldiers returning home could have a similar effect on the Putin regime as the defeated Red Army vets coming home from Afghanistan did on the late USSR in the 80s.

Yeah I hope thats the case for a significant portion of Russian culture, and as far as I can tell its possible.

 

[luka]

this is straying into fantasy territory now