Since it's been a while since we had an Israel/Palestine thread...

[padraig (u.s.)]

Israel just ("preemptively") hit Iran. Katz and the IDF announced it ~15 minutes ago. Details obviously pending but all bets are off now.

Netanyahu et al gambling that they can force Trump to engage in a new Middle East forever war which, idk.

Dunno what this means for Gaza, or the WB. Presumably Israeli leadership think they can keep a handle on everything until they pull the US in, cos they barely have the manpower to cover what they're doing now, even supplemented by all the (state-backed) lunatic WB settler militias.

It's simultaneously shocking and totally unsurprising that they actually did it. Idk I guess it depends on what the goals are. Presumably regime change on something like the Syria/latter Iraq model - Iran is way too big and geographically rugged to conquer and occupy, but a collapse into decentralized chaos would suit just as well of not better. I doubt even that is achievable w/o significant US boots on the ground but who knows I guess.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Maybe it will just be a brief dustup a la the one last October but the Israelis are expecting it to go full tilt, whole country on emergency lockdown

There is an enormous strain of hubris running thru Israeli leadership and a very large section of society - at least a plurality, possibly majority, of Israeli Jews - right now, the idea that as they can apparently do whatever the fuck they want and the West et al will stand by, they can just kill their way thru all their problems, which doubles down on the already nearly overwhelming Israeli tendency to apply a military solution to all problems whether or not that even makes sense for Israeli interests (let alone morality etc), and possibly this is a massive overreach. Or maybe it will pay off idk. Either way it's the culmination of Netanyahu's career/life, and arguably the entire Revisionist project going back to his father's stint as a Jabotinksy hanger-on.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

No surprise, they just said they're targeting Iran's nuclear program and long-range missile capability. Specifically claiming Iran was "days away from having enough fissile material for 15 nuclear bombs". Even by military propaganda standards the IDF lies incessantly about everything but either way nukes are obv what they'd claim as casus belli.

I'm ofc no expert but from what I've seen there is serious doubt among actual experts about whether Israel and/or the US have the capability to destroy Iran's nuclear program thru the air alone a la Osirak 81, which is why boots on the ground would have to follow which would mean America. We'll see what Trump does.

If you cant tell I'm fucked shocked that these crazy motherfuckers really went did it. My snap judgment is that they're high on their own supply and this will backfire but I could be wrong and whatever happens there is potential for massive carnage. Iran going after soft targets in Saudi etc. Full-on regional war and chaos. Nukes.

 

[GhostofKinski]

Hope Iran hits them back. HARD!

I believe this was a targeted surgical strike about as much as I believe Israel is only targeting Hamas militants.

 

[GhostofKinski]

They are a lunatic state. Need to be put down like a rabid dog.
“We” the U.S. is likely to face a 9/11 style blowback event. I am very angry, disappointed & I believed in a deity I would be praying for all the more innocent lives gonna be destroyed behind this.

Can escalate very quickly to thermonuclear strikes by Israel depending on how many of the Barrage hopefully heading Israel’s way land on Tel Aviv

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Reports that the IDF hit multiple apartment buildings in Tehran in attempted decapitation attacks on IRGC leaders. As yet unconfirmed but very believable as IDF policy since forever in Gaza and Lebanon is to kill dozens of innocent people in apartment buildings and claim "human shields", ie the targets are at home with their families and neighbors.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Need to be put down like a rabid dog

Not only is it not going to happen, nonsense takes like that only help Israel leadership and hasbarists, and hurt Palestinians. The best outcome is peace, not more dead Israelis, Iranians, Arabs, and whoever else.

Not related but incidentally: I saw your homophobic comments in that other thread. FOH with that trash buddy, now and forever.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

Israelis claiming they took out Iranian chief of staff, and multiple high-level nuclear scientists, in initial strike

 

[GhostofKinski]

Not only is it not going to happen, nonsense takes like that only help Israel leadership and hasbarists, and hurt Palestinians. The best outcome is peace, not more dead Israelis, Iranians, Arabs, and whoever else.

Not related but incidentally: I saw your homophobic comments in that other thread. FOH with that trash buddy, now and forever.

No, it is Irans absolute right & duty to respond accordingly. There is a laundry list of targeted killings of Iranians, including bombings.

Idk wtf you’re taking about re; homophobia.
I am born and raised in NYC and not only have a brother who is married to another man but have probably known, loved & worked with more people on that community than you even know in your life. But I know nothing about you, nor do I care.
I am very easy to find though (I see you live over here) if you have any real problems.
You got the right guy. I’ll dm you exactly where I’m at with proof you are en route.
FAFO

Edit: oh okay you had a sudden change of heart & removed the accusations and ad hominem attacks. GFYS all the same killer.

 

[thirdform]

. The best outcome is peace, not more dead Israelis, Iranians, Arabs, and whoever else.

This especially won't happen, and if it does, it will only be a formality. Israel has always been the primary rejectionist of peace. In that respect Kahane was right, though not for the reasons he thought he was. One needs to read him from the perspective of Palestinians. PLO tried all of this with Oslo Accords etc.

 

[thirdform]

the only realistic outcome is not a laughable attack from a croaking shia theocracy but Israel disintegrating from its own contradictions. Netanyahu is pushing them there, slowly but surely.

 

[shakahislop]

if I were in saddam hussain’s position, I would do a lot things specifically to wind up mixed biscuits

 

[version]

Bibi was in court on corruption charges the other day and they had to cut it short because he claimed he had an important diplomatic call to make then yesterday he was in court again and they had to cut it short because he claimed he felt ill, this despite him later showing up for a vote in the Knesset... He's so brazen I wouldn't be surprised if these rumblings about an Israeli strike on Iran were just another of his delaying tactics.

This is really what it feels like to me, Bibi desperately scrabbling around playing any card to hand to try to cling to power and stay out of a courtroom.

 

[GhostofKinski]

the only realistic outcome is not a laughable attack from a croaking shia theocracy but Israel disintegrating from its own contradictions. Netanyahu is pushing them there, slowly but surely.

I don’t think (idk the full effect of Israel’s attack) but they (Iran) were exceedingly measured and conservative in their response last time Israel struck them. They flooded the sky with obsolete HE rounds and forced Israel to use iron dome which is like a billion dollar a pop ADA. While doing so they slipped some of the more modern ballistic missiles on targets that were far more of a token target saying “we can do this indefinitely. Can you?

Although I do take your point about letting them continue to commit economic suicide as well as make it more & more difficult for their (few) friends to continue to defend them as a pariah/aparthied/genocidal state.

I’m angry so I probably need to take a few deep breaths and step back. But, when thinking of nations attacked unprovoked.
Sure, there’s a lot of people who want peace by any means. Even if it means getting stomped on.
When Nazi Germany was occupying France,
I get why the French resistance was such a small percentage of the population. If you killed one German soldier, the Germans would line up a hundred people at random & blow them away.
I get & understand the desire to live in peace.
But in retrospect, whom do we honor?
The people who stood up for themselves.

 

[other_life]

the only realistic outcome is not a laughable attack from a croaking shia theocracy but Israel disintegrating from its own contradictions. Netanyahu is pushing them there, slowly but surely.

we have an optimist

 

[other_life]

sad react post not laugh react post. optimism != irrational

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

This especially won't happen, and if it does, it will only be a formality. Israel has always been the primary rejectionist of peace. In that respect Kahane was right, though not for the reasons he thought he was. One needs to read him from the perspective of Palestinians. PLO tried all of this with Oslo Accords etc.

Yes I know all this better than anyone here. Even the dying remnants of the traditional Israeli liberal left - Peace Now etc - that backed Oslo now acknowledges that the only thing that will stop this is external pressure - ie internal change is no longer possible - but there's no realistic scenario in which that is "put down like a rabid dog". Saying shit like that is stupid and counterproductive and just hands ammunition to the hasbara massive.

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

the only realistic outcome is not a laughable attack from a croaking shia theocracy but Israel disintegrating from its own contradictions. Netanyahu is pushing them there, slowly but surely.

This I do agree with 100%

Simultaneous ongoing Gaza genocide, war with Lebanon and Yemen, illegal Syria occupation, oh and ofc the West Bank ad always, on top of this

 

[padraig (u.s.)]

No, it is Irans absolute right & duty to respond accordingly. There is a laundry list of targeted killings of Iranians, including bombings.

Idk wtf you’re taking about re; homophobia.
I am born and raised in NYC and not only have a brother who is married to another man but have probably known, loved & worked with more people on that community than you even know in your life. But I know nothing about you, nor do I care.
I am very easy to find though (I see you live over here) if you have any real problems.
You got the right guy. I’ll dm you exactly where I’m at with proof you are en route.
FAFO

Edit: oh okay you had a sudden change of heart & removed the accusations and ad hominem attacks. GFYS all the same killer.

Oh and I see this place is now about getting threatened by ex-prison guard Internet tough guys who read a Mark Fisher book and think they have a free pass to call someone a poof. In addition to the fash and TERF brigade and whatever. I didn't change shit buddy. I said what I said. If no one else pulled you up on it that's to their discredit.

It was a mistake to come back and post some thoughts in the heat of this moment, fuck this place has gone downhill. Well best of luck to most of you I guess.

Free Palestine etc

 

[other_life]

he wasn't wrong - i am an anglophile!