Since it's been a while since we had an Israel/Palestine thread...
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padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
This is incorrect. There has been massive and relentless pressure. It literally might be the issue that costs Biden the election. The US and UK govts are both publicly talking about recognizing a Palestinian state, which would have been unthinkable four months ago. Biden just issued an executive order for sanctions against Israeli settlers who commit or promote violence against Palestinians, also unthinkable before the war.
Obviously you have to balance that against the fact that the same govts are ones continuing to arm Israel, run diplomatic interference for Israel, lead the punitive attack on UNRWA, etc, that potential recognition of a Palestinian state is closely tied to realpolitik about normalization deals with Saudi Arabia et al, and that sanctions against settler terrorism are symbolic until proven otherwise (just like the already existing, almost never enforced Leahy Law), but even still - they are clearly a direct result of the enormous pressure on the Biden admin.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
in a broader sense, those things are also some of the indicators of what a massive failure this war has been for Israel
standard "I'm just a guy on the internet without access to all the information" disclaimer here, but
firstly, Israel's two stated goals - destroying Hamas and returning the hostages - have been total failures. Hamas capabilities in Gaza have been seriously degraded, sure, and the Israelis can, and probably will, claim that as a victory if they're willing to play loosely with the definition of "destroying Hamas", but the reality is it hasn't cracked under immense military pressure, which Israel cannot sustain indefinitely (not least bc the IDF is running out of munitions). it's still resisting the IDF in Gaza, including areas in the north that had been deemed cleared, and recruitment outside Gaza is booming. the only thing that has worked to return hostages is negotation, for deals which were probably on the table all along. Hamas leadership has been unbowed by the invasion or the siege, has not been moved to desperation, continues to negotiate sharply.
other indicators:
-normalization has stopped and is now tied to a two-state solution that the Israeli govt rejects, and will continue to reject as new proposals are put forward i.e. by the EU
-the ICJ case and continued sharp decline of Israel's international reputation
-the looming prospect of a longer and more difficult war with Hezbollah and the continued displacement of 200k Israelis from the north
-the continuing economic collapse of Egypt - the stability of which is a major Israeli security concern - exacerbated by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea
-the significant strain on the Israeli economy and reserve system from a prolonged, large-scale war
Against which, the IDF has killed, wounded, or captured a significant number of fighters and some mid-level Hamas commanders, in the process leveling Gaza, killing tens of thousands of civilians and inflicting starvation on 2 million people, to a largely horrified global reaction.
standard "I'm just a guy on the internet without access to all the information" disclaimer here, but
firstly, Israel's two stated goals - destroying Hamas and returning the hostages - have been total failures. Hamas capabilities in Gaza have been seriously degraded, sure, and the Israelis can, and probably will, claim that as a victory if they're willing to play loosely with the definition of "destroying Hamas", but the reality is it hasn't cracked under immense military pressure, which Israel cannot sustain indefinitely (not least bc the IDF is running out of munitions). it's still resisting the IDF in Gaza, including areas in the north that had been deemed cleared, and recruitment outside Gaza is booming. the only thing that has worked to return hostages is negotation, for deals which were probably on the table all along. Hamas leadership has been unbowed by the invasion or the siege, has not been moved to desperation, continues to negotiate sharply.
other indicators:
-normalization has stopped and is now tied to a two-state solution that the Israeli govt rejects, and will continue to reject as new proposals are put forward i.e. by the EU
-the ICJ case and continued sharp decline of Israel's international reputation
-the looming prospect of a longer and more difficult war with Hezbollah and the continued displacement of 200k Israelis from the north
-the continuing economic collapse of Egypt - the stability of which is a major Israeli security concern - exacerbated by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea
-the significant strain on the Israeli economy and reserve system from a prolonged, large-scale war
Against which, the IDF has killed, wounded, or captured a significant number of fighters and some mid-level Hamas commanders, in the process leveling Gaza, killing tens of thousands of civilians and inflicting starvation on 2 million people, to a largely horrified global reaction.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
in case it's not already perfectly clear where I stand, I don't want to valorize Hamas at all here, especially its leadership, which is clearly more far more interested in itself and its ideological goals than in meeting its people's needs. I'm just describing the truth that this war looks like an enormous failure for Israel.
shakahislop
Well-known member
doesn't look like it from nyc. what i keep coming across and being shocked by is the number of people who are fully onside with what israel is doing, and how much media takes the same position. as a non-american it was a bit eyeopening to be sat on the sofa half-watching bill maher do his congenial thing and then suddenly burst into a five minute bit about how palestinians just need to shut up and take it. the pro-israel side has won the street stickering game for sure, they got their stuff up everywhere really quickly. the post is as you'd expect sickening. driving around the east coast i've seen quite a few billboards saying stupid stuff like 'hamas are coming after you next'. there was one like that in times square as well. but beyond media there's a remarkable amount of support for israel among random people that i'm around. don't know if it's just an nyc thing
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
I know this is said in righteous indignation to racist (and thuddingly unfunny) Israeli comedy - and I guess climate change - but I still strongly disagree with that kind of collective dehumanization, especially with its obvious overtones of countries refusing Jewish refugees before and during the Holocaust. the reality of situation - which droid knows as well as anyone - is that neither the Jews nor the Palestinians are going anywhere and that the only solution is some kind of sufficiently equitable peace, be it 2SS, 1SS or some Swiss canton style admixture, whatever the people on the ground decide to go with. Israeli society has been poisoned by the occupations etc - there is unfortunately a lot of this terrible, extremely unfunny racist "comedy" (Guy Hochman, Eretz Nehederet, etc) - but there are also plenty of Israelis standing up against the occupations and the war and all of it, often at great personal cost. Tal Mitnick and the refuseniks, the activists who put their bodies on the line to protect Palestinians from settler terror attacks in the WB, or those organizing for peace across ethnic lines in the face of intense hostility (and the threat of physical violence from both Kahanists and the cops) - those brave people do not deserve to be lumped in to a collective mass laughing at racist bullshit.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
if you're primarily looking at legacy media and billboards then I can see how it would seem that way. the pro-Israel operation is enormous and sophisticated and has always dominated traditional media. one of the most notable things about this war, though is how badly Israel has lost the information war on social media (or, how ill-suited the traditional hasbara approach is to social media) where most people get most of their news nowadays. I mean due respect here, I know - or assume anyway - you're not a boomer but look who you're citing. Bill fucking Maher? come on. not only has he always been an Israel apologist (among his numerous other awful, usually poorly informed takes) but he's also 68. the median viewing ages of CNN, MSNBC, and Fox News are respectively 67, 68, and 71. the boomer worldview is not the world's worldview.
Biden is getting regularly interrupted at events by younger progressives. his spokespeople are daily being drawn into embarrassing self-contradictory answers as they try to defend whatever the atrocity of the day is (shooting a man waving a white flag, hospital death squad, crazy Ben-Gvir comments, etc). I can't speak to the circles you personally move in, but if there was not enormous pressure on Biden, why would the State Dept be publicly discussing recognizing a Palestinian state? why the executive order targeting settler terrorism? Biden is probably the most pro-Israel president of the last 30 years if not longer and his administration is taking totally unprecedented steps, not even considered by any previous administration, in the direct face of Israeli govt opposition.
The Palestinians are going somewhere, as we have seen - into the dust and the mud, and probably, eventually to Egypt and Jordan, and anywhere else they end up fleeing too to escape, and there will, no doubt also be countless Israeli tik-toks mocking their departure.
Im simply stating facts here. Western states may support Israel for strategic reasons, but they will baulk at taking in millions of refugees from a genocidal state, and unfortunately, despite a minority of extremely courageous activists, the vast majority of Israelis continue to vocally support the ongoing slaughter. The fact that these same people may one day face difficulties if (or when) the tables are turned is probably the only meagre and inadequate scrap of historical justice we can anticipate.
I don't conflate Judaism with nationality, nor would I confuse the victims of historical genocide with its contemporary perpetrators. I would hope that anyone of conscience will leave Israel long before such a crisis emerges.
15 year ago I said this, and your response was that the same internal resistance within Israel that you speak of would prevent such a thing ever happening.
I guess we were both wrong.
version
Well-known member
I'd have thought any pressure would mostly be coming from the threat of escalation and further conflict if things fully spill over into Lebanon rather than because of people protesting at home. That, and economic disruption.
No, he's right. Biden is tanking in the polls and its almost certain now that the coalition that put Trump out will fail to re-elect him because of Gaza. Newsom is being heavily touted as a replacement candidate atm.
As for escalation, the US just bombed the fuck out of Iraq and Syria. Clearly they aren't too worried about that.
As for escalation, the US just bombed the fuck out of Iraq and Syria. Clearly they aren't too worried about that.
Not really, but there's been an appreciable drop, and ofc he's now lost the vast majority of Arab Americans and a big chunk of young voters. Many who would have held their noses to prevent Trump getting back in are now (rightly) saying that they won't vote for a genocidal scumbag.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
if your point is that if Israelis outlive their usefulness they'll be abandoned by the same govts that support them now, then sure. I seriously doubt this war or anything that preceded it will be the reason, though. if climate change refugees reach that level, any state in a relatively secure position will surely be hiding behind fortified borders and rejecting everyone. no one's going to single out Israelis for rejection on moral grounds, is more what I'm getting at.
this idea that Israeli Jews can just pick up and leave is untrue tho. it seems that way looking at the American-Israeli elite - Bibi, Oren, Dermer, etc - or the uglier phenomenon of fanatics born in Brooklyn or Boston moving directly to WB settlements, but most Israelis don't have dual citizenship. over half of Israeli Jews are Mizrahi. they can't exactly go back to the MENA countries that kicked them out after 48. the only good solution is to work for a better Israel-Palestine for everyone.
we were. I didn't anticipate the continued rightward shift under Netanyahu, or how intense it would get. I also overestimated the elements of restraint in the Israeli polity and society. I was definitely wrong.
I think you underestimate the sheer, visceral disgust at what is happening amongst a significant portion of Europeans. We took in 100,000 Ukrainian refugees, but if a similar disaster befell Israel, the collective response in most European countries would be a collective shrug, at best. As I said way upthread, genocide is stain that cannot simply be rinsed off.
It will, no doubt be different in the US, maybe in the UK and Germany.
With the current arrangements its pretty easy for Israelis to come to most European countries, certainly easier for them than almost anyone else on the planet. If I was a left wing Israeli I would be doing everything I could to GTFO, both for reasons of conscience and self-preservation.
I admire your optimism, but the fact that reality keeps outstripping even the most pessimistic projections is, I think a clear signal of direction of travel.
shakahislop
Well-known member
I think these are quite small actions on the part of the US in comparison to what would be necessary to do the right thing, which would be for the attack on gaza to end immediately. you're right obviously in your description of the situation. but what i'm saying is that if the media structures that we have were up to the job, which they're not, this would end tomorrow. its a failure of the way that the reality is mediated.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
my point was more that if things get that bad in re climate change refugees, the breakdown of social order will probably be so widespread and severe, and the police state reaction against it so harsh, that no one is going to care much about singling out Israelis for moral reasons. militarized border cops will just be shooting everyone on sight.
and I think expecting people to leave who at this point are 3rd, 4th, 5th generation is unrealistic. some people do, certainly. there's a niche of voluntary Israeli expats on moral grounds, but it's totally valid to stay and fight to make things better. and Jews obviously have extremely good reasons to be suspicious of their safety in other places, specifically Europe, even if it seems safe now. this factor cannot be overstated.
I wouldn't say I'm optimistic so much as there is no other option. something I'm pretty sure I remember saying 15 years ago is that this isn't Algeria where the pied-noirs can just go back to the metropole. there is no metropole. there never was a metropole. Israel is a nuclear power. this works somehow or it ends very badly. and also, you know, fuck the Kahanists and ultranationalists. they don't get to hijack Judaism for their racist, messianic nonsense.
Thats not how it will work. Rich 'white' people will still be able to escape, and besides, US abandonment will probably precede actual catastrophic climate change, if only by a few years.
Yes.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
Israel’s evidence of UNRWA Hamas allegations examined
The UN Secretary General has announced an investigation into UNRWA.
www.channel4.com
Less important side note - it's pretty crazy that after so many years of being obsessed with UNRWA the Israelis couldn't come up with any evidence, even fabricated evidence, tho I guess when you can get the result you want with access to U.S. media and govt power centers and low-effort smoke and mirror you don't need actual evidence.
padraig (u.s.)
a monkey that will go ape
Oh also, the IDF admitted to running a gruesome psyop Telegram channel aimed at whipping up Israelis into a fervor of war support