I'm obviously glad they've worked out a ceasefire and hostage deal. it has a few interesting points. one is the exchange ratio, 3:1 vs 1027:1 for Galid Shalit, and unlike the Shalit deal it's hardly any real fighters, most of the prisoners being released are teenagers in for stone-throwing etc. the other one is Israel having to ground its drone flights for 6 hours a day. I've seen it suggested, and it seems likely, that this deal is basically Hamas paying to pull as much as it can out of Gaza City and retreat to the south.
the question becomes whether or not the pause develops international - specifically U.S. - momentum against a renewal. Hamas leadership will very likely try to drag it out as long as possible for that reason, as well as to consolidate its position if the fighting resumes. the other big question is what the fuck the civilian population is supposed to do. there are already close to 2 million people crammed into desperate living conditions in southern Gaza. what is the IDF going to do, tell them to evacuate back to the devastated rubble of the north? Israeli politicians have been pushing either the longstanding ethnic cleansing fantasy that Egypt will take them in refugee camps in the Sinai, or the newer and more delusional fantasy that various countries around the world will take them in like 50k apiece parcels.
I could be wrong, but my suspicion is that the ceasefire won't be permanent, and there will be even heavier civilian casualties than there have been to date. the Israelis really seem set on finishing the job and the last few weeks have proven that Hamas is not close to the military capabilities of Hezbollah (which makes sense), tho idk what price it could exact from consolidated positions in Khan Younis etc. IDF casualties so far, excluding Oct 7, have been at an acceptable level for Israeli public opinion - 69 killed in Gaza since the invasion began is the latest number I saw - which they've achieved thru the tactic of pounding everything into dust before sending in guys with rifles, and just sealing tunnels rather than descending down into them.